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Climate Outlook – July 2011

Climate Outlook – July 2011. ENSO in Neutral State; Neutral Year Likely. SST forecast and Obs for Recently Completed Season. AMJ 2011 SST forecast from Mar. Correlation (w.r.t. map average) Glob 0.63 Trop 0.69 Uncentered correlation (w.r.t. clim average):

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Climate Outlook – July 2011

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  1. Climate Outlook – July 2011 ENSO in Neutral State; Neutral Year Likely

  2. SST forecast and Obs for Recently Completed Season AMJ 2011 SST forecast from Mar Correlation (w.r.t. map average) Glob 0.63 Trop 0.69 Uncentered correlation (w.r.t. clim average): Glob 0.63 Trop 0.66 AMJ 2011 SST obs anom (deg C)

  3. SST and Precipitation Obs for Recently Completed Season AMJ 2011 SST obs anom (deg C) warm cold AMJ 2011 precip anom (mm/day) wet dry

  4. Verification of Most Recent Season Precipitation Forecast AMJ 2011 precip tercile categ obs Verification: G: globe T: tropics this (mean forcst 1997→) rpss: G 0.018 (0.010) T 0.028 (0.017) Rate of Return: G 0.017 (0.010) T 0.028 (0.017) Heidke skill: G 0.056 (0.047) T 0.080 (0.075) GROC: G 0.559 (0.544) T 0.592 (0.571) AMJ 2011 precip probab forecast from mid-Mar

  5. Verification of Most Recent Season Temperature Forecast AMJ 2011 temp tercile categ obs Verification: G: globe T: tropics this (mean forcst 1997→) rpss: G 0.047 (0.117) T 0.007 (0.180) Rate of Return: G 0.036 (0.113) T-0.015 (0.184) Heidke skill: G 0.145 (0.301) T 0.007 (0.410) GROC: G 0.539 (0.580) T 0.498 (0.631) AMJ 2011 temp probab forecast from mid-Mar

  6. Last week’s SST anomaly | | | | | | | | | | | --------------------------------------------------------------------

  7. Stronger El Niño El Nino Jun La Nina StrongerLa Niña

  8. * * * * * * * * * * * * * Outgoing Longwave Radiation Anomalies 5N – 5S Climate Prediction Center NCEP very strong La Nina signature in atmosphere

  9. Stronger La Niña very strong *** ******** ********* StrongerEl Niño

  10. mid-May

  11. mid-Jun

  12. mid-Jul

  13. Jul 2009 Jul 2010 Jul 2011 Mildly enhanced trades persist Thermocline depth weakly above or below average ENSO state: neutral

  14. Recent phase and strength of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) mid- Jul 2011 mid- Jun 2011 very weak weak MJO MJO + + neutral ENSO neutral ENSO = = Neutral(-) ENSO Neutral(-) ENSO

  15. Nino3.4 SST anomaly predictions from June

  16. from June

  17. from July

  18. July 2011 SST forecasts (plus and minus uncertainty scenarios at right) PLUS MEAN MINUS

  19. We have changed the climate base period for our forecasts from 1971-2000 to 1981-2010 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

  20. Monthly global mean temperature anomaly over land (relative to 1960-1990) -------------------------- 1960 – 1990 -----------------

  21. from NASA/ GISS

  22. Difference between 1971-2000 and 1981-2010 mean temp Aug-Sep-Oct (ºC) Oct-Nov-Dec (ºC) (ºC) Aug-Sep-Oct (SDs) Oct-Nov-Dec (SDs) (standardized)

  23. %ile of 1997-2008 median temperature and precipitation with respect to the 1971-2000 climate base period

  24. Tropical Cyclone ForecastsJuly 2011 Slight SW Location Shift NTC = Number of Tropical Cyclones ACE = Accumulated Cyclone Energy

  25. Six IRI focus areas: 12-year skill of IRI precipitation forecasts RPSS GROC RPSS GROC score R G R G R G R G R G R G

  26. This ppt file is available to anyone on the shared drive: ……/tonyb/iri_html /fctbriefingmonyr

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