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This report provides an update on the recent evolution, current status, and prediction of the Asian-Australian monsoon system. It includes information on recent rainfall and conditions, monsoon prediction, and a summary of climatology patterns. Visit the provided link for more information.
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The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP January 14, 2013 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml
Outline • Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions • Monsoon Prediction • Summary • Climatology
Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days During the past 90 days, rainfall continues to be slightly above normal over southeastern China, Japan, the Philippines, and over much of the maritime Indonesian islands. However, over central and southern peninsular India and over southwestern China, rainfall is below normal. But the main story is that entire eastern half of Australia is under a severe rainfall deficit.
Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days The 30-day precipitation is slightly above normal over southeast China and across southeast Asia. Interestingly, the rainfall deficits over India has been made up and is now near normal. Hover, over eastern Australia and particularly over Queensland severe rainfall deficits have developed.
Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days This past week, relatively less monsoon rainfall fell across much of the region leading to large rainfall shortfalls over northern Australia. Last week’s rainfall forecast anomaly by the NCEP GFS model. Observed amounts were
Rainfall Time Seriesover 5x5 lat-lon boxes The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier.
NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Weak 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2
Summary During the past 90 days, rainfall continues to be slightly above normal over southeastern China, Japan, the Philippines, and over much of the maritime Indonesian islands. However, over central and southern peninsular India and over southwestern China, rainfall is below normal. But the main story is that entire eastern half of Australia is under a severe rainfall deficit. The 30-day precipitation is slightly above normal over southeast China and across southeast Asia. Interestingly, the rainfall deficits over India has been made up and is now near normal. Hover, over eastern Australia and particularly over Queensland, severe rainfall deficits have developed. This past week, relatively less monsoon rainfall fell across much of the region leading to large rainfall shortfalls over northern Australia. For the upcoming couple of weeks the NCEP GFS model predicts slightly above normal over northern India near the Kashmir region and over parts of northern Australia, where rainfall is badly needed.
