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The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP September 21, 2015. For more information, visit: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml. Outline.
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The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP September 21, 2015 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml
Outline • Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions • Monsoon Prediction • Summary • Climatology
Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days For the past 90 days rainfall amounts have generally been below normal across the southern and east Asia monsoon region consistent with the ongoing strong El Nino conditions. However, northeast India, Bangladesh, Burma, and parts of eastern China have received above normal rainfall amounts.
Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days For the past 30 days, rainfall was considerably below normal over northern/central India, Thailand, Cambodia, southern Vietnam and across Indonesian Archipelago. According to the India Met. Dept. (IMD), the SW summer monsoon rainfall over India as whole since the 1st of June, as of today September 21st, is now 14 % below normal, slightly better than it was (16%) last week. With less than two weeks left before the official end of the Indian summer monsoon, these conditions are expected to only very slightly improve due to the predicted rainfall in the southern states.
Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days In this past week the above normal rainfall amounts across central India helped the dire rainfall situation in that region. Elsewhere rainfall was below normal.
Atmospheric Circulation Generally these CDAS maps are two days behind. But sometimes, as it is today, due to technical issues, these maps are further behind.
Rainfall Time Seriesover 5x5 lat-lon boxes The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier.
NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Accumulated Precip. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2
NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2
Summary For the past 90 days rainfall amounts have generally been below normal across the southern and east Asia monsoon region consistent with the ongoing strong El Nino conditions. However, northeast India, Bangladesh, Burma, and parts of eastern China have received above normal rainfall amounts. For the past 30 days, rainfall was considerably below normal over northern/central India, Thailand, Cambodia, southern Vietnam and across Indonesian Archipelago. According to the India Met. Dept. (IMD), the SW summer monsoon rainfall over India as whole since the 1st of June, as of today September 21st, is now 14 % below normal, slightly better than it was (16%) last week. With less than two weeks left before the official end of the Indian summer monsoon, these conditions are expected to only very slightly improve due to the predicted rainfall in the southern states. In this past week the above normal rainfall amounts across central India helped the dire rainfall situation in that region. Elsewhere rainfall was below normal. In the next couple of weeks, the NCEP GFS model is predicting a near complete retreat of the Indian summer monsoon from much of India, generally less rainfall across much of south and east Asia consistent with strong El Nino conditions, but slightly more rainfall over southern India.
