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The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP March 25, 2019. For more information, visit: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml. Outline.
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The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP March 25, 2019 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml
Outline • Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions • Monsoon Prediction • Summary • Climatology
Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days For the past 90 days, below normal rainfall deficits dominated deep southern coastal peninsular India, Korea, Japan, Malaysia, large parts of New Guinea island of Indonesia and Papua New Guinea, and almost all of Australia, particularly north western regions. Elsewhere, the rainfall amounts received were at normal to slightly above normal levels, particularly in southeastern China, Kashmir India, parts of the Middle East, and Indonesia. Large below normal deficits dominated almost all of Australia, especially northwestern Australia with severe deficits.
Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days For the past 30 days, seasonal rainfall fell over Kashmir, Nepal, Bangladesh, and across the Middle East in general. Large rainfall fell over southeast China. Large parts of Australia continue to be abnormally dry, especially in the north.
Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days In this past week, large parts of Indonesia, Malaysia, Papua New Guinea received below normal rainfall. Elsewhere, seasonal normal rainfall fell across the region.
Atmospheric Circulation Generally these CDAS maps are two days behind. But sometimes, as it is today, due to technical issues, these maps are further behind.
Rainfall Time Seriesover 5x5 lat-lon boxes The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier.
NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Accumulated Precip. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2
NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2
Summary For the past 90 days, below normal rainfall deficits dominated deep southern coastal peninsular India, Korea, Japan, Malaysia, large parts of New Guinea island of Indonesia and Papua New Guinea, and almost all of Australia, particularly north western regions. Elsewhere, the rainfall amounts received were at normal to slightly above normal levels, particularly in southeastern China, Kashmir India, parts of the Middle East, and Indonesia. Large below normal deficits dominated almost all of Australia, especially northwestern Australia with severe deficits. For the past 30 days, seasonal rainfall fell over Kashmir, Nepal, Bangladesh, and across the Middle East in general. Large rainfall fell over southeast China. Large parts of Australia continue to be abnormally dry, especially in the north. In this past week, large parts of Indonesia, Malaysia, Papua New Guinea received below normal rainfall. Elsewhere, seasonal normal rainfall fell across the region. In the upcoming two weeks, the NCEP GFS model forecasts below normal over southeastern China, and above normal rainfall over parts of eastern Australia, and near normal rainfall elsewhere.
