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Extreme Space Weather Events and NATO Operations

Interprogramme Coordination Team on Space Weather. Extreme Space Weather Events and NATO Operations. M. Messerotti 1,2,3 & SCI-229 RTG 1 INAF-Astronomical Observatory of Trieste, ITA 2 Department of Physics, University of Trieste, ITA 3 Chair, NATO STO/CSO SCI-299 TG. Outline of the Talk.

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Extreme Space Weather Events and NATO Operations

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  1. Interprogramme Coordination Team on Space Weather Extreme SpaceWeatherEventsandNATO Operations M. Messerotti1,2,3 & SCI-229 RTG 1INAF-Astronomical Observatory of Trieste, ITA 2Department of Physics, University of Trieste, ITA 3Chair, NATO STO/CSO SCI-299 TG SWx Workshop, Boulder, CO, USA M. Messerotti

  2. Outline of the Talk • Definition an Extreme Space Weather Event • Solar-Terrestrial Weather Phenomena • Extreme SWx Events by Severity • Semantic Ambiguity in the Definition • Relevance of ESWxWs for NATO Operations • SWx Monitoring in the NATO Framework • Characteristics of SWx Information for NATO Operations SWx Workshop, Boulder, CO, USA M. Messerotti

  3. Definition of anExtreme Space Weather Event • Should be based on: • A correct semantics • The energetics of the events’ cascade • The severity of the impacts • Should be standardised SWx Workshop, Boulder, CO, USA M. Messerotti

  4. Solar-Terrestrial Weather Phenomena • Solar Weather Events (e.g. Solar Flares) • Interplanetary Weather Events (e.g. CMEs) • Geospace Weather Events (e.g. CME-MSPH) • Magnetospheric Weather Events (e.g. GM Storm) • Ionospheric Weather Events (e.g. TEC variations) • Geospheric Weather Events (e.g. GICs) SWx Workshop, Boulder, CO, USA M. Messerotti

  5. Solar Weather Event Unstable Magnetic Topology in Solar Active Region Magnetic Reconnection Solar Flare • Sunspot area • Magnetic topology • Magnetic helicity • Parker • Pile-up • Stochastic • SXR peak • SXR lightcurve SWx Workshop, Boulder, CO, USA M. Messerotti

  6. Interplanetary Weather Event Coronal Mass Ejection Solar Flare • Mass • Dynamics • Geometry SWx Workshop, Boulder, CO, USA M. Messerotti

  7. Geospace Weather Event Coronal Mass Ejection Unstable Magnetospheric Configuration Energy Transfer • Ram Pressure • Hemispheric Power • Compression SWx Workshop, Boulder, CO, USA M. Messerotti

  8. Magnetospheric Weather Event Unstable Magnetospheric Configuration Geomagnetically Induced Current Geomagnetic Storm • Kp, Dst • Typology • Intensity • Geography SWx Workshop, Boulder, CO, USA M. Messerotti

  9. Extreme Space Weather Eventby Impacts’ Severity Enhanced SEP Fluence > THRSEPcrit Radio Scintillation > THRRScrit EXTREME SWx EVENT AND/OR Radio Blackouts > THRRBcrit GICs > THRGICcrit SWx Workshop, Boulder, CO, USA M. Messerotti

  10. Semantic Ambiguity to Be Solved “Extreme Space Weather event” refers to: • The Solar Flare • The Coronal Mass Ejection • The Geomagnetic Storm • The Radio Blackout • The GIC • The relevant impacts on tech/bio systems • The whole solar-terrestrial events’ cascade ? SWx Workshop, Boulder, CO, USA M. Messerotti

  11. Relevance of ESWxEsfor NATO Operations An Extreme Space Weather Event • Can cause the unavailability of many services on which NATO operations rely on (e.g. COMs). • Is a mission-critical factor, as it can completely jeopardise specific operations despite of the backup/mitigation techniques. • Forecasts, nowcasts and prompt warnings are a must. SWx Workshop, Boulder, CO, USA M. Messerotti

  12. Satellite Segment Sub-SystemsAffected by SWx Events SWx Workshop, Boulder, CO, USA M. Messerotti

  13. Ground-System Segment Sub-Systems Affected by SWx Events SWx Workshop, Boulder, CO, USA M. Messerotti

  14. SWx Monitoring and Warningfor NATO Operations • No ISES-like dedicated NATO network1, as national facilities can be shared or not with Partners according to the principle of national sovereignty preservation. • Monitoring and warnings are derived from: • Governmental/Institutional Public Services. • Non-Public Services (DoD-customised public services). • Classified Services (DoD-proprietary). 1To my knowledge… SWx Workshop, Boulder, CO, USA M. Messerotti

  15. Characteristics of SWx Information for Successful Operations • Target-dependent (operator, specialist, soldier) • Prompt • Essential • Comprehensive • Standard • User Friendly • On Global effects • On Regional effects • On Local effects • With Alerts and Warnings w/nowcast and forecast SWx Workshop, Boulder, CO, USA M. Messerotti

  16. THANK YOUFOR YOUR ATTENTION ! SWx Workshop, Boulder, CO, USA M. Messerotti

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