Energy (In)Security in Northern Ireland: Conceptual, Local and Global Issues

1. Energy (In)Security in Northern Ireland: Conceptual, Local and Global Issues Prof. John Barry Queens University Belfast

2. Centrality of Energy to Modern Societies Energy is the foundation of civilisation Food, housing, transportation, electricity, heating Complexity of modern societies a direct function of energy

3. Energy use grows with economic development energy demand and GDP per capita (1980-2002) US Australia France Russia S. Korea UK Japan Ireland Greece Malaysia Mexico China Brazil India Steven Koonin • Source: UN and DOE EIA

4. Centrality of Fossil Fuel Energy Name one thing in this room not made in whole or part, or transported in whole or part without the use of oil?

5. Our energy ‘trilemma’ Energy security Affordability Sustainability – moving beyond carbon energy

6. Energy security Supply (having resources, such as fossil fuels, and renewable energy); Sufficiency (adequate quantity of fuel and services from these sources); Surety (having reliable access to them); Survivability (resilient and durable sources of energy in the face of disruption or damage); Sustainability (reducing waste and limiting damage to the environment)

7. International Energy Agency Adequate, affordable and reliable access to energy fuels and services, it includes availability of resources, decreasing dependence on imports, decreasing pressures on the environment, competition and market efficiency, reliance on indigenous resources that are environmentally clean, and energy services that are affordable and equitably shared

8. Fossil Fuel Dependency of NI “Due to our high dependence on foreign fuel (88% dependence on oil and gas imports in the South and 100% dependence on gas imports in the North), all-island Ireland is highly vulnerable in terms of energy security. The majority of our imports come from within EU and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. This helps to reduce our energy security exposure. However, our vulnerability is increasing as EU and OECD sources of fossil fuels diminish” , North South Inter-Parliamentary Association (2013), Energy Security, pp.5-6

10. Complexity and Vulnerability Complexity has risen because of advances in information technology and because of performance improvements at the level of system units (i.e., organizations, technologies and people) These changes produce more complex networks with: More nodes A greater density of connections Faster movement of material, energy, and information along these connections But also greater vulnerability to outside stress, threats and disruption Greater complexity means smaller threats can have big impacts

11. Critical Infrastructures Potable & Waste Water Transportation Banking & Insurance Telecom-munications Government Electricity Emergency Response Oil & Gas

12. Infrastructure Interdependencies Financing & policies SEC; IRS E L E C T R I C I T Y I T & T E L E C O M Banking & Finance Trading, transfers e-commerce, IT Currency (US Treasury; Federal Reserve )‏ Regulations & enforcement FERC; DOE Government e-government, IT Communications Financing & policies Personnel/Equipment (Military)‏ Detection, 1st responders, repair Medical equipment Emergency Response FEMA; DOT Location, EM contact Fuel transport, shipping Fire suppression Transport of emergency personnel, injured, evacuation Signalization, switches, control systems Transportation DOT SCADA Fuel transport, shipping Fuels, lubricants Fuels, Heat Generator fuels, lubricants Financing, regulations, & enforcement Storage, pumps, control systems, compressors Oil & Natural Gas DOE;DOT Communications SCADA Chemicals transport Water for production, cooling, emissions control Water for cooling, emissions control Potable & Waste Water EPA Heat SCADA Pumps, lifts, control systems Cooling Switches, control systems Miriam Heller, NSF (2003)‏

13. Mapping Systemic Risk and Vulnerability: System Risk is a Function of System State (Heller, 2003) P(Ht,s) = probability of a hazard at time t (and system state s) P(Ds|Ht,s) = probability of a particular level of vulnerability of a system in state s given a hazard at time t (and system state s) E(L|Ds) = expected losses conditioned on the vulnerability of system in state s E(L) = S S E(L|ds) * P(ds|ht,s) * P(ht,s)  ht,s ds

14. Geopolitics and energy insecurity We need to decrease our dependence on oil, coal and gas Not just electricity, but heating, transport and our food system is dependent upon a non-renewable, climate-change causing energy source

15. Energy security – vulnerability of transport routes Vulnerable energy transport chokepoints Strait of Hormuz Strait of Malacca Bosporus Strait Terrorism and vulnerability of energy infrastructure

17. Bundeswehr Transformation Centre, Future Analysis Branch (November 2010), Peak Oil: Security Policy Implications of Scarce Resources “Even if the developments described in this study do not occur as depicted, it is still necessary and sensible to prepare for peak oil. The time factor may be decisive for a successful transformation towards post-fossil societies. In order to accelerate democratic decision processes in this respect, it is necessary to embed the dangers of an eroding resource basis in the public mind. This is the only way to develop the necessary problem awareness for prospective settings of the course.”, (2010: 93; emphasis added) But is this any evidence of this?

18. The geopolitics of carbon energy – the ‘strategic ellipse’…more turbulence ahead

20. Pipeline Geo-Politics: Russia and EU relations Note: Russia is the largest oil, gas, uranium and coal Exporter to the EU.

21. The Necessity of Resilience In context where we cannot eliminate a threat or risk, what we need is system resilience Foresight, planning and scenario-building

22. Resilience is the capacity to manage, adapt to, cope with or recover from stresses, shocks and disasters. Disaster Resilience is the ability of countries, communities and households to manage change, by maintaining or transforming living standards in the face of shocks or stresses - such as earthquakes, drought or violent conflict – without compromising their long-term prospects What is Resilience? Resilience is the ability of people, households, communities, countries, and systems to mitigate, adapt to and recover from shocks and stresses in a manner that reduces chronic vulnerability and facilitates inclusive growth. • DFID definition • IGAD definition • USAID definition

23. Three Capacities to boost Resilience • Intensity of change / transaction costs Adaptive capacity Transformative capacity Absorptive/ coping capacity

24. Identifying the Resilience Gap – Social-Systems Approach Resilience Gap = (System ability - external context pressure)* stakeholders influence

25. NI’s energy system Coping capacity – mix of energy sources, critical reserves Adaptive capacity – adjusting the energy system – producer/consumer dynamics, infrastructural issues (N-S interconnector) Transformative capacity – a ‘paradigm-shift’ but political log-jam, lack of agreed energy transformation pathway/s Continuing likelihood of ‘carbon lock in’ – centralised electricity production, dependence on imported fossil fuels and carbon-based transportation

26. Energy insecurity in NI Northern Ireland’s security of supply would be at risk from 2016 and in deficit from 2021. There are three reasons for this deficit: Despite the Republic of Ireland experiencing a surplus of generation, limitations in interconnection between the two jurisdictions restrict the amount of generation that can be transferred to Northern Ireland. The delay in the North-South Interconnector is a barrier to resolving this issue. A planning application for the Northern Ireland element of the interconnector was submitted in December 2009 and resubmitted in April 2013. EU Emissions Directive will, from 2016, result in the reduction in generation capacity from the Ballylumford plant, and restrict generation at the Kilroot plant. Faults on the Moyle Interconnector, which connects Northern Ireland and Scotland, have halved its capacity. Full restoration of this capacity is not likely to be complete until 2017

27. N-S Interconnector “So, we are making the point quite clearly that, in the absence of any other local proposals, the North/South interconnector is the only single proposal that we are aware of that would change the situation”. Northern Ireland Assembly Committee for Enterprise, Trade and Investment, Minutes of Evidence Electricity Supply — SONI Generation Adequacy Report: Security of Supply Post-2015 (27 June 2013)

28. Unlike the Republic of Ireland “Northern Ireland does not hold strategic oil stocks on the island” and yet NI has the highest dependency on oil for home heating than any other part of the UK 68% of homes use oil as their heating source, this rises to 82% in rural areas High levels of fuel poverty and Social and economic vulnerability to fossil fuel (esp. Oil) price changes

29. Energy as a ‘socio-technical system’ Recognition of energy as a socio technical system, embedded in a complex multi dimensional multi actor and multi-level arena (from global to local government to households), with dynamic properties. “the key choices involved in energy transitions are not so much between different fuels but between different forms of social, economic, and political arrangements built in combination with new energy technologies. In other words, the challenge is not simply what fuel to use but how to organize a new energy system around that fuel”. (Miller, Iles and Jones, 2013: 139: emphasis added)

30. Transitions Approach – Multi-Level Perspective Based on on-going Irish EPA research project ‘Catalysing and Characterising Transitions’ looking at energy transitions in Ireland

31. Niches, regimes and landscape Micro-level of nichesrepresenting innovative local practices, local actors, innovators, entrepreneurs and technologies, which can be viewed as: “a protected space where radical novelties emerge and have the opportunity to learn, develop and gain a critical mass of adopters” (Safarzynska, Frenken, and Van den Bergh, 2012: 1013). Meso-level regimerelating to dominant technologies, practices, policies, legal rules, shared assumptions and discourse. A macro-level landscape comprised of social and physical environmental or infrastructural features within which the dominant regime and niches are nested and influenced by. Includes ‘external’ factors such as demography, the macro economy and the prevailing political and consumer culture.

33. ‘Without Vision, there the people perish’ Need for integrative, shared vision on energy futures and energy transition amongst key energy actors Government - central and local; Energy suppliers – carbon and renewable; energy distributors, Energy users – businesses and households Short –term: Protect and ensure maximum efficiency of the current carbon energy system even as we plan for the transition beyond carbon Short and medium –term: Focus on reducing energy demand, increase energy efficiency and not simply focus on energy supply Medium to long-term: facilitate ‘disruptive energy innovations’ to displace the incumbent carbon energy system