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Test Beds Service – Science Linkage with the Outside Community

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  1. EMC WRF Developmental Test Center, NASA/ NOAA/DoD Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation CPC Climate Test Bed NHC Joint Hurricane Test Bed HPC Hydrometeorological Test Bed SPC Hazardous Weather Test Bed with NSSL SWPC Space Weather Prediction Test Bed with AFWA AWC Aviation Weather Test Bed OPC linked with EMC’s Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch Test BedsService – Science Linkage with the Outside Community 3

  2. NOAA’s Operational Model Production Suite“From the Sun to the Sea” Oceans (HYCOM) Waves Forecast • NOS – OFS • Great Lakes • Bays • Chesapeake • Tampa • Delaware Climate Forecast Coupled Hurricane ~2B Obs/Day Satellites + Radar 99.9% Regional Model Regional DA Dispersion Global Weather Forecast Global Data Assimilation Severe Weather Short-Range Ensemble Space Weather (Enlil) Global Weather Ensemble Regional DA Air Quality Aviation 4 4 NOAH Land Surface Model

  3. Computing Capability “reliable, timely and accurate” • Current computers • IBM Power6 • 73.1 trillion calculations/sec • 2 billion observations/day • 27.8 million model fields/day • Primary: Gaithersburg, MD • Backup: Fairmont, WV • Guaranteed switchover in 15 minutes • Next generation computer: by Oct 2013 • IBM iDataPlex Intel/Linux • 143 trillion calc/sec • Primary: Reston, VA • Backup: Orlando, FL Popularity of NCEP Models Web Page 2011 2011 Web access to models as they run on the CCS 2007 2001 2005 2009 2003

  4. Hurricane Prediction Skill NHC Atlantic 72 hr Track Forecast Errors Major Upgrades in Global and Hurricane Numerical Models Advances Related to USWRP 1997-2001 trendline Error (nautical miles) 2003-2010 trendline 1970-1986 trendline 1987-1996 trendline Better Model Physics and Resolution Improved Data Assimilation Year

  5. Forecaster (HPC) Skill Annual Threat Scores: 1.00 Inch

  6. NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction • Four-story, 268,762 square foot building in Riverdale, MD will house 800+ Federal employees, and contractors • 5 NCEP Centers (NCO, EMC, HPC, OPC, CPC) • NESDIS Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR) • NESDIS Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) • OAR Air Resources Laboratory • Includes 40 spaces for visiting scientists • Includes 500 seat auditorium/ conference center, library, deli, fitness center and health unit

  7. Move Schedule • February 2, 2012 – data center setup began! • April 7, 2012 – Building operations transferred to new owner • Furniture being installed and wired • July 30, 2012 – begin phased move-in • Front offices • Non-operational groups • August 2012 – dual operations • September 2012 – complete move • September/October 2012 – ribbon-cutting ceremony February 2, 2012 Data Center at NCWCP

  8. Major Thrusts for 2012 Major Tactical Efforts • Once in a Lifetime • Move to NCWCP • Once in a Career • AWIPS2 Transition • Once in a Decade • Central Computer System (CCS) Transition and Acquisition (Bridge/New Contract) All occur in FY2012!

  9. Major FY2012 Implementations • HYCOMM/RTOFS-Global – Oct 25, 2011 • NMMB (introduction of NOAA Environmental Modeling Framework) – Oct 18, 2011 5 hi-res nested domains

  10. Major FY2012 Implementations (cont.) • Enlil – December 13, 2011 • First large-scale, physics-based space weather prediction model to be put into operations • Jointly developed by scientists with NOAA, NASA, the Air Force Research Laboratory, the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences at CU in Boulder, Boston University, NCAR, and George Mason University. • Provide 1-4 day advance warning of geomagnetic storms • Provides perspective on structures 1-27 days in advance • Reduces error in geomagnetic storm onset time from ±12 hrs to ±6 hrs 13

  11. Major FY2012 Implementations (cont.) • GEFS – February 14, 2012 • Latest GFS, improved ensemble initialization • Resolution upgrade • Horizontal: T190(~70km)  T254 (~50km) out to 8 days • Vertical: 28 to 42 levels out to 16 days Week 2: Adding 3-4 days of skill NH Anomaly Correlation for 500hPa HeightPeriod: September 1st – November 30th 2011

  12. Major FY2012 Implementations (cont.) • Rapid Refresh – May 1, 2012 • 13 km WRF and GSI with RUC features • Increased domain • Introducing experimental North American Rapid Refresh Ensemble using Time Lagged (NARRE-TL) • 10 members • 2 output grids (US,AK) • 12 km, 12 hour forecast forecast. 13 km Rapid Refresh Domain Former RUC Domain

  13. Major FY2012 Implementations (cont.) • SREF Upgrade – June, 2012 • eliminate Eta and RSM models and add new NEMS-based NMMB model • Model upgrade (two existing WRF cores from v2.2 to version 3.3) • Resolution increase (from 32km to 16km) • More diversity for initial conditions and physics Current SREF Mean Upgraded SREF Mean

  14. Major FY2012 Implementations (cont.) • GSI Hybrid EnKF-3DVAR Upgrade – April, 2012 • EnKF hybrid system • Add GOES-13 data • Add Severi CSBT radiance product • New version of Forecast model EnKF Hybrid GDAS Package Parallel - Northern Hemisphere Current SREF Mean Upgraded SREF Mean