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Flood Risk Modeling in Thailand … and more …. Alexander Lotsch Commodity Risk Management Group Agriculture and Rural Development The World Bank Group. Outline. Flood Risk Analysis Petchabun, upper Pasak River Modeling Approach Global Disaster and Weather Risk

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flood risk modeling in thailand and more

Flood Risk Modeling in Thailand … and more …

Alexander Lotsch

Commodity Risk Management Group

Agriculture and Rural Development

The World Bank Group

outline
Outline
  • Flood Risk Analysis
    • Petchabun, upper Pasak River
    • Modeling Approach
  • Global Disaster and Weather Risk
    • Global patterns of weather hazards
  • Climate Change
    • Observed changes and trends
objectives of flood analysis in petchabun area
Objectives of Flood Analysis in Petchabun Area
  • Support design of an insurance scheme
  • Simulate historical patterns of floods
  • Define flood risk zones
  • Define critical rainfall thresholds for floods
  • Loss assessment with remote sensing
  • Assess agricultural losses
flood plain modeling
Flood Plain Modeling

2 Coupled Models

1) Rainfall-Runoff Model

  • Digital Elevation Model
  • Cell-based
  • Estimates Water Volume

2) Inundation / Flood Plain Model (2-D)

  • Flood Depth
  • Flood Duration
  • Drainage
flood modeling output
Flood Modeling Output

Multi-day Inundation

  • Depth
  • Duration
  • Extent

Flash Floods are secondary

Cross-Validation with satellite observations and geo-information analysis

what is remote sensing
What is Remote Sensing?
  • Earth Observation
    • Land, Oceans, Atmosphere
  • In the Air and in Space
    • Air-borne vs. Space-borne
    • Geostationary vs. Orbital
  • Sensor Technologies
    • Optical, Thermal, Infrared, Microwave, Radar etc.
    • Resolution (“kilometers” - ”meters” - ”centimeters”)
    • Active vs. Passive
benefits of remote sensing
Benefits of Remote Sensing
  • Spatially Continuous Data Acquisition
  • Routine Revisiting Capabilities
  • Regional Coverage
  • Digital Data Processing and Manipulation
  • Digital Data Integration (GIS etc.)
  • Cost-effective
  • Modeling
flood detection using satellite observations
Flood Detection using Satellite Observations
  • Synthetic Aperture Radar, e.g. Radarsat
  • Penetrates clouds
  • Detects surface water
flood detection september 2002
Flood detection, September 2002

Land Use

Floods in Paddy Rice

challenges
Challenges
  • Digital Terrain Data
  • Hydro-meteorological and streamflow data
  • Validation
  • Computation and Model Choice
  • Flood Risk Zoning
    • Design of an Insurance Scheme
outline11
Outline
  • Flood Risk Analysis
    • Petchabun, upper Pasak River
    • Modeling Approach
  • Global Disaster and Weather Risk
    • Global patterns of weather hazards
  • Climate Change
    • Observed changes and trends
nh drought ndvi patterns
NH Drought & NDVI Patterns

June-August 2002

June-August 2001

36-month SPI

dry

wet

 NDVI [Std. Dev.]