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The Iran Nuclear Crisis

The Iran Nuclear Crisis. Herzliya Conference Scott D. Sagan February 4, 2009. Proliferation Fatalism : The belief that coercive diplomacy can not stop Iran from getting nuclear weapons .

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The Iran Nuclear Crisis

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  1. The Iran Nuclear Crisis Herzliya Conference Scott D. Sagan February 4, 2009

  2. Proliferation Fatalism: The belief that coercive diplomacy can not stop Iran from getting nuclear weapons. Deterrence Optimism: The belief that a nuclear Iran can be easily deterred through threats of nuclear retaliation.

  3. (Mis)Reading the 2007 NIE • Iran “halted” its nuclear weapons program in 2003 • Iran’s weapons program was a violation of its NPT obligations • Covert enrichment program exists outside of Natanz

  4. Cold War analogy flawed Pakistan analogy better Shield for aggressive action Ambiguous “control” Dangerous custodians Anonymous attack Further proliferation Dangers of a Nuclear Iran

  5. Moving Forward? • Stronger Carrots • Regime Coexistence • LWR Assistance • Grand Bargain • Stronger Sticks • Sanctions on Refined Petroleum • Financial Sanctions • Military Options

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