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4th WORKSHOP OF THE EXCOMPTE MODELLING EXERCISE Chemical ASPECTS: PowerPoint Presentation
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4th WORKSHOP OF THE EXCOMPTE MODELLING EXERCISE Chemical ASPECTS:

4th WORKSHOP OF THE EXCOMPTE MODELLING EXERCISE Chemical ASPECTS:

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4th WORKSHOP OF THE EXCOMPTE MODELLING EXERCISE Chemical ASPECTS:

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  1. 4th WORKSHOP OF THE EXCOMPTE MODELLING EXERCISE Chemical ASPECTS: I- Primary Pollutants (CO, SO2) II- Ozone Precursors (NO2) III- Ozone IV- Ozone production (OH, chemical indicators) V- Processes (Photolysis, deposition rates)

  2. I-1.Primary pollutants : CO - Differences on the initial conditions => large differences on the background values from below 25 ppb (Polair), to 25-50 ppb (Mocage, RAMS-CAMx, TCAM1) up to 150-200 ppb for the others simulations

  3. I-1.Primary pollutants : CO • Temporal evolution: impact of the evolution of the height of the surface layer • High concentrations inside plumes from sources at night • 09htu : slight decrease (whereas emissions increase slighly) • 12htu : decrease of the concentration • 15htu : CO plumes limited to the main sources emissions along the coast • 18htu : concentrations and plumes increase (whereas emissions decrease slightly)

  4. I-1.Primary pollutants : CO • Warning: Even if models use normally the same inventory, it seems that the integration of this inventory was done on the same wayd, and differences others than due to the spatial resolution appears

  5. I-1.Primary pollutants : CO Use of the same meteorological forcing: - Night up to Morning: CHIMERE2 and RAMS-CAMX2 tend to the MOCAGE1 simulation - From mid-day: influence is less strong

  6. I-1.Primary pollutants : CO Differences between models: - UAM-Total and Polair: fine and intense plumes close to the sources - UAM-Total: mean co values at the north-west and some peaks near Arles - MOCAGE2 close to MOCAGE1 - AZUR close to CHIMERE1 - RAMS-RACM close to RAMS-MOCA2 - Plumes are frequently puffs in the MOCAGE1 simulations

  7. I-1.Primary pollutants : CO Differences between models: - frequently CO plumes above sea are intense in MC2-AQ simulations - frequently CO plumes above sea are not intense in MESO-NHC simulations - MM5b differ to the most to the mean simulated patterns (for days when wind fields differ to the mean meteorological forcing)

  8. I-1.Primary pollutants : CO • Many times: strong relation between the localisation of the CO plumes • and the wind-field

  9. I-1.Primary pollutants : CO Few stations available to compare models and measurements: - correlation indexes below 0.3 : simulated peaks to fine in timecompare to the observed ones - mean/background value are generally lower in simulations compare to observations

  10. I-1.Primary pollutants : SO2 Developement and localisation of SO2 plumes compare to the CO plumes

  11. I-1.Primary pollutants : SO2 More stations, but comparisons are worse: - correlation indexes below 0.2, close to zero sometimes - some simulated strong and large peaks in time not observed Too coarse resolution to model such specie ? Mismatch between the emission inventory and the reality ?

  12. NO2

  13. I-2.Ozone precursors: NO2 • Common simulated temporal evolution: • High concentrations on large areas at night • 09htu : slight decrease in space and intensity • 12htu : decrease of the concentration • 15htu : high NO2 values limited to the main sources emissions • 18htu : concentrations and plumes increase

  14. I-2.Ozone precursors: NO2 Use of the same meteorological forcing (Aladin): close pattern during night/morning

  15. I-2.Ozone precursors: NO2 Quite agreement in regards to the spatial resolution : Azur/Chimere1, Chimere-Acri, Rams-CAMX, Mocage1, Except at the north-west corner around Avignon

  16. I-2.Ozone precursors: NO2 Second group of comparable simulations : Uam-Total1 and Polair

  17. I-2.Ozone precursors: NO2 • Models with specific behaviour: • - MC2-AQ : Large and strong plumes above sea • Meso-NHC: small plumes (or none) above sea • Rams-moca1, Rams-moca2, Rams-Racm: mean values • Tcam1 low inland background values (appears at 09htu, max. at 15 htu)

  18. I-2.Ozone precursors: NO2 • Correlation indexes: • Relatively small between 0.2/0.4-0.5, even worse during the IOP2b (below 0.2)

  19. MBE on all value • - IOP2a: from –10 to –20 ppb, highest value: MOCAGE1, RAMS-MOCA, MC2-AQ • - IOP2b: from –10 (RAMS-MOCA, MC2-AQ) to +10 ppb (Meso-NHC, Chimere-ACRI) I-2.Ozone precursors: NO2

  20. I-2.Ozone precursors: NO2 • MBE on peaks: • - IOP2a: -20 to –50 ppb (MOCAGE1, RAMS-MOCA, MC2-AQ), except UAM-TOTAL1 (some over-estimation some days) • - IOP2b: -10/20 ppb (MOCAGE1, RAMS-MOCA) to +20 ppb (others models)

  21. I-2.Ozone precursors: NO2 Simulated peaks « near the surface » are too strong, whereas simulated values at high altitudes are too low

  22. I-2.Ozone precursors: NO2 Forecast of 1 hour NO2 above 135 ug.m-3: - Quite good for all box-zones and IOPs - problems concerns mainly two models: MC2-AQ and Meso-NHC which simulate false alerts for the boxzone 1 and the boxzone 3

  23. I-2.Ozone precursors: NO2 Forecast of 1 hour NO2 above 200 ug.m-3: - Quite good for all box-zones and IOPs - problems concerns mainly MC2-AQ and to a less extent Meso-NHC : false alerts for boxzones 1 and 3 - other models miss some exceedances sometimes

  24. O3

  25. I-2.How models reproduce Ozone • 21/06: • 09Htu : mean background, titration above main sources • - Titration: rams-racm • - Background: mc2-aq, mocage1, polair,rams-camx1, rams-moca1 • 12Htu : mean (60-70) background, peaks east of Berre/Marseille • background: mc2-aq, mocage1, polair, • good plumes : chimere-acri, meso-nhc, mocage1, • false plumes : chimere1, mc2-aq, meso-nhc,mocage1,polair, • rams-camx1,rams-moca1,rams-moca2, rams-racm,uam-total1 • 15Htu : low values at centre/north-west, plumes near Toulon • Low values: chimere1,Chimere-acri, meso-nhc, rams-camx1, • rams-moca1, rams-moca2,rams-racm,uam-total1 • good plumes : chimere1,meso-nhc, polair,rams-moca1 ,rams-racm,uam-total1 • false plumes : chimere-acri, mc2-aq, meso-nhc,mocage1, rams-camx1, • rams-moca2

  26. I-2.How models reproduce Ozone • 21/06: • 18Htu : mean values at coast, peaks at coast, low values in Durance Valley • - Durance valley good: mocage1, polair • - peaks: Chimere1,chimere-acri, mc2-aq, mocage1, polair, rams-camx1, • rams-moca1,rams-moca2,rams-racm, uam-total1 • - mean values: Chimere-acri, mc2-aq, rams-camx1,rams-moca1,rams-racm • MODELISED PLUMES PATTERN: • Specific: Chimere-acri, Meso-nhc, polair,rams-moca1,rams-moca2 • Close: Chimere1,rams-camx1,rams-racm,uam-total1 • Close: Mocage1, mc2-aq,

  27. I-2.How models reproduce Ozone • 22/06: • 09Htu : mean background, titration durance • - Good Titration: mc2-aq, mocage1, polair • - Background: mc2-aq, Meso-nhc (east), mocage1, polair,rams-camx1 (east), • rams-moca1,rams-moca2(east), uam-total(titration) • 12Htu : mean (60-70) background • Background: mc2-aq, polair, uam-total1 • False plume: Chimere-Acri, mocage1, rams-racm • 15Htu : increase of background + peaks near Toulon • background : mc2-aq (north-east), mocage1 (north-east), polair • good plumes : chimere1, Chimere-acri, meso-nhc,mocage1, polair, • rams-camx1,rams-moca1,rams-racm, uam-total1 • false plumes : mc2-aq, rams-moca2

  28. I-2.How models reproduce Ozone • 22/06: • 18Htu : mean values with increase near the coast • - background : mc2-aq, mocage1 (north), Polair (north-east), rams-moca1( coast) • - titration : chimere1, Chimere-Acri, Meso-nhc, rams-camx1, uam-total1 • - false plumes : mc2-aq, rams-racm, • MODELISED PLUMES PATTERN: • Specific: mc2-aq, rams-moca1,rams-moca2 • Close: Chimere1,Chimere-Acri, Meso-nhc, mocage1,(Polair), • rams-camx1, rams-racm,uam-total1

  29. I-2.How models reproduce Ozone • 23/06: • 09Htu : mean background, titration durance • - Good Titration: Chimere-Acri, mc2-aq, mocage1, polair, rams-camx1, uam-total1 • - Background: Chimere-Acri, mc2-aq, Meso-nhc,mocage1, polair, rams-camx1, • rams-racm,uam-total1 • 12Htu : low values, mean (60-70) at coast/north-east • good low values: mc2-aq • background : mc2-aq, mocage1 (north), Polair (north) • False plume: Chimere-Acri, mocage1, rams-moca1, rams-racm, • uam-total1 • 15Htu : low values larger in space, mean values near Toulon/coast • good background : mc2-aq (north only), meso-nhc (north-east only), • mocage1 (north only), polair • good Toulon : chimere1, mocage1, polair, rams-moca1, • rams-moca2, rams-racm • false plumes : chimere-Acri, uam-total1

  30. I-2.How models reproduce Ozone • 23/06: • 18Htu : increase of background values and near main emissions sources • - background : mc2-aq, Polair (north-east) • - Titration : Chimere1,Chimere-Acri, mc2-aq, Meso-nhc, Polair, rams-camx1, • rams-moca2, rams-racm • - false plumes :Chimere-Acri, uam-total1 • MODELISED PLUMES PATTERN: • Specific: mc2-aq, Polair, • Close: Chimere-Acri, mocage1, rams-moca1, rams-racm, uam-total1 • Close: Chimere1,Meso-nhc, rams-camx1, rams-moca2

  31. I-2.How models reproduce Ozone • 24/06: • 09Htu : mean background, titration Marseille/durance • - Good Titration: mc2-aq, Meso-nhc,polair, rams-moca1, uam-total1 • - Background: mc2-aq, Meso-nhc, mocage1, polair, rams-moca2, rams-racm, • uam-total1 • 12Htu : mean (60-70), plumes from Alpilles/salon de provence • background : mc2-aq (Toulon), mocage1 (north-east), polair (north-east), • rams-moca2 (source) • False plumes: Chimere1,Chimere-acri, mc2-aq (too east), • meso-nhc (too east), mocage1, rams-racm • good plumes: Chimere-acri, mocage1, Polair, rams-moca1, rams-racm, • uam-total1 • 15Htu : plumes extends to the north-east • False plumes : chimere1(too east) , mc2-aq (too east), mocage1, • Meso-nhc (too north-east), Uam-total1 (too east), • rams-moca1 (too large and at the coast), • good plumes : chimere1, chimere-acri, mc2-aq, mocage1

  32. I-2.How models reproduce Ozone • 24/06: • 18Htu : titration above sources, plumes at the north-east • - background : mocage1 (north-east), Polair (at the plume) • - bad Titration : mc2-aq, mocage1, rams-moca1,rams-moca2 • - good plumes : Chimere1, Chimere-Acri, mocage1 • - false plumes : mc2-aq (too east), mocage1 (toulon), rams-moca1, rams-racm, • uam-otal1 (west border) • MODELISED PLUMES PATTERN: • Specific: Meso-nhc, mocage1, Polair, rams-moca2, rams-camx1 • Close: Chimere1, Chimere-Acri, rams-moca1 • Close: mc2-aq, rams-racm,Uam-Total1

  33. I-2.How models reproduce Ozone • 25/06: • 09Htu : mean background, titration Marseille/coast • - bad Titration: mc2-aq (large), Meso-nhc (large), mocage1, rams-camx1 (large), • rams-moca2 (none), rams-racm (none) • - Background: mc2-aq (high), mocage1,Polair (north), rams-moca1 (west), • rams-racm (high) • 12Htu : mean (60-70), large plume from east of berre to north-west • background : mocage1 (north-east), rams-moca1 (low coast), • rams-racm (large plumes) • False plume: meso-nhc, mocage1 (coastline), rams-moca1 (too north), • rams-racm • good plumes: Chimere1, Chimere-acri, mc2-aq, Polair, rams-racm • 15Htu : mean values sources/coast, large plumes • background : chimere1 (toulon), mocage1 (NO), rams-moca1 (low coast) • False plumes : Meso-nhc (NE only), mocage1 (NE only), • rams-moca1 (too north), uam-total1(W et E) • good plumes : chimere1 (miss NE), Chimere-acri (miss NE), mc2-aq, • Polair (low W), rams-moca2, rams-racm

  34. I-2.How models reproduce Ozone • 25/06: • 18Htu : decrease of background, plumes at NE • - background : mocage1 (north-east), rams-racm (low coast) • - bad Titration : Chimere1, Chimere-acri, mc2-aq, rams-camx1, uam-total1 • - good plumes : Chimere1, Chimere-acri, MC2-aq, mocage1, rams-racm • - bad plumes : Meso-nhc (too early), rams-moca2 (too early) • MODELISED PLUMES PATTERN: • Specific: rams-camx1, uam-total1 • Close: Chimere1, mc2-aq, Meso-nhc, mocage1, rams-moca1, rams-moca2, • rams-racm • Close: Chimere-acri, Polair

  35. I-2.How models reproduce Ozone • 26/06: • 09Htu : mean background, titration source • - bad Titration: mc2-aq (too north), rams-camx1 (large), rams-moca1 (too large), • rams-moca2 (too large), uam-total1 (large) • - Background: Chimere1 (plume at E), Chimere-acri (high toulon), • mc2-aq (plume at E), mocage1 (large low), rams-racm (plume at E) • 12Htu : mean+ (70-80), peaks at north-west, mean values around toulon • Background: mocage1 (NE), rams-moca1 (source), rams-moca2, • uam-total1 (source) • Toulon : Chimere1, Chimere-acri • False plumes: Chimere1, Chimere-acri, mc2-aq, Meso-nhc (NE), mocage1, • rams-racm(E), uam-total1 (E) • good plumes: (chimere1), chimere-acri, (mc2-aq), rams-moca2, rams-racm

  36. I-2.How models reproduce Ozone • 26/06: • 15Htu : mean values sources/coast, peaks center of the domain • background : chimere1 (plume too large),chimere-acri (high sea), • mocage1 (border), rams-moca1 (low), rams-moca2 (low) • false plumes : Meso-nhc (too NE), rams-camx1 (too NE), • rams-racm (too NE), uam-total1 (too NE) • good plumes : chimere1, chimere-acri (too W), mc2-aq (W, strong), mocage1 • 18Htu : titration coast + peaks near cadarache • - background : chimere-acri (high sea), mocage1 (NE, NW),rams-moca1 (low), • rams-moca2 (low), uam-total1 • - bad Titration : Meso-nhc (too inland), rams-racm (large) • - good plumes : Chimere1, mc2-aq • - false plumes : mocage1 (too N), rams-racm (too NE)

  37. I-2.How models reproduce Ozone 26/06: MODELISED PLUMES PATTERN: Specific: Chimere-acri , mocage1, Polair Close: Chimere1, mc2-aq Close: Meso-nhc, rams-camx1, rams-racm, (uam-total1) Close: rams-moca1, rams-moca2

  38. I-2.How models reproduce Ozone • 02/07: • 09Htu : low west, mean east • - Background: Chimere1 (W), mc2-aq (SE), mocage1 (source), polair, • rams-moca2 (W), rams-racm(W),UAM-Total1 (Toulon) • 12Htu : increase of O3, high value coast/berre/marseille • background : chimere1 (too large), mc2-aq, mocage1 (N), Polair, • rams-racm (too large), UAM-Total1 (too large) • False plumes: Chimere-acri (too W), mc2-aq (N), mocage1 (too W), • rams-moca1 (N), rams-moca2 (NE) • good plumes: Chimere1,rams-racm, UAM-Total1 • 15Htu : extent of the plumes • background : Chimere1 (too large), mc2-aq, Polair (low), • rams-racm (too large), uam-total1 (too large) • False plumes : Chimere-acri (too NO), mc2-aq (NE), Meso-nhc (NE), • mocage1 (NE), rams-moca1 (too NO), rams-moca2, • uam-total1 (too large) • good plumes : Chimere1, rams-racm

  39. I-2.How models reproduce Ozone • 02/07: • 18Htu : mean coast, plumes to the north • - background : mc2-aq, polair (north), rams-racm (too large), uam-total1 (coast) • - bad Titration : Chimere1, Chimere-acri • - good plumes : Chimere1, Chimere-acri, rams-racm • - false plumes :mc2-aq(NE), Meso-nhc, mocage1, RASM-MOCA1 (NE), • rams-moca2 (N), UAM-Total1 • MODELISED PLUMES PATTERN: • Specific: Chimere, mc2-aq, Meso-nhc, mocage1, Polair, UAM-Total1 • Close: Chimere-acri, rams-moca1, (rams-moca2), rams-racm

  40. I-2.How models reproduce Ozone • 03/07: • 09Htu : mean values, peaks at north • - Background: mc2-aq, Meso-nhc, mocage1, polair,rams-moca1, rams-moca2 (NE), • rams-racm(NE), uam-total1 (coast,NE) • - good peaks: mc2-Aq • 12Htu : mean values coast, plumes from avignon to cadarache • good coast : Meso-nhc, mocage1, Polair, rams-moca2 • False plumes: mc2-aq (too N, E), Meso-nhc (too N), rams-moca1 (NE), • rams-moca2 (NE), uam-total1 • good plumes: Chimere1 (too large), Chimere-acri, Mocage1 (too large), • rams-racm • 15Htu : increase of values, plumes to NE • background : Chimere1 (coast), mc2-aq (coast), Meso-nhc (low source), • Mocage1 (W), Polair (W, N), rams-moca1, uam-total1 (coast) • False plumes : mocage1 (too NE), rams-moca2 (too NE), rams-racm (too NE) • good plumes : Chimere1, Chimere-acri, mc2-aq

  41. I-2.How models reproduce Ozone • 03/07: • 18Htu : titration at source, plume at NE • - background : mc2-Aq (coast), Meso-nhc, mocage1, rams-moca1, rams-moca2, • uam-total1 (coast) • - good plumes : Chimere1, Chimere-acri, mc2-aq, mocage1 • MODELISED PLUMES PATTERN: • Specific: Meso-nhc, Polair, Uam-total1 • Close: Chimere1, mc2-aq • Close: Chimere-acri, mocage1 • Close: Rams-moca1, rams-moca2, rams-racm

  42. I-2.How models reproduce Ozone • 04/07: • 09Htu : mean values, titration at coast • - Background: mc2-aq (high! at NE), Meso-nhc (NW), Mocage1, rams-moca1 • - good coast: Meso-nhc, Mocage1, Polair, RAMS-moca1 • 12Htu : (70-80) from avignon to salon de provence • backgound : meso-nhc (low coast) • good plumes: chimere1, chimere-acri (N), mc2-aq (too NE), Mocage1, • rams-moca2 (too NE), rams-racm • 15Htu : low values at coast, plumes from salon to the north • good coast : Meso-nhc • good plumes : chimere1, mc2-aq (too E), Mocage1

  43. I-2.How models reproduce Ozone • 03/07: • 18Htu : low values sources/coast, mean values • - background : Meso-nhc (too low), rams-moca1( too low E) • - good titration: chimere1, chimere-acri, mocage1, rams-moca2 • MODELISED PLUMES PATTERN: • Specific: Meso-nhc, mocage1, polair, rams-moca1, rams-moca2, uam-total1 • Close: chimere1, chimere-acri • Close: mc2-aq, rams-racm

  44. II-1 : Similarities and differences between models • NIGHT PATTERN: • MOCAGE1 simulates large and strong low ozone field • RAMS-MOCA1, MC2-AQ, (Meso-NHC) under-estimate ozone • RAMS-MOCA2 and RAMS-RACM simulate high ozone • Few models achieve to reproduce correctly the low ozone in the durance valley, but some models reproduce well the background ozone at elevated sites.

  45. II-1 : Similarities and differences between models • MORNING PATTERN (09htu): • CHIMERE1 AND AZUR simulate a quasi homogeneous field (~ 50-60 ppb) • MOCAGE1 under-estimates ozone • MAPOM simulates a very high ozone value above sea which will lead to very high values above land during the day • Polair pattern is nearly similar from one day to another ones (band of backgroundozone along the coastline surrounded by low values everywhere

  46. II-1 : Similarities and differences between models • DAILY PATTERN: • Few models show a specific comportment observed every day (Low values at the north/north-west border in MOCAGE simulations, high over-estimation by Mapom, high ozone at west border in UAM simulations…) • Specific comportment is more dependant to the day: • Example: 02 July: low ozone plume in MC2-Aq, high and large ozone plumes in Chimere1, wrong localisation in MOCAGE1 … • 26 June = day with the highest simulated ozone values (MC2-AQ)

  47. II-1 : Similarities and differences between models • DAILY PATTERN: some different behaviours are observed from one IOP to another ones • much high ozone above sea and inland during IOP3 for Chimere1, UAM-total1 compared to IOP2a/2b • lower inland values for Meso-NHC during IOP3 compared to IOP2a/2b • high inland ozone during the 25/06, 26/06, 03/07, 04/07 compared to very low values for the other days • for Polair

  48. I-2.How models reproduce Ozone Temporal evolution: Quite good reproduced (correlation between 0.6/0.8) Lowest correlation factor: RAMS-MOCA2/RAMS-RACM due to a general night-time over-estimation

  49. I-2.How models reproduce Ozone Temporal evolution: None perfect model Sometimes all models for one zone/one day have bad correlation factor One model which has a general good correlation, can be bad sometimes

  50. I-2.How models reproduce Ozone MBE on all values: Range of MBE is between –10 ppb to +15/+20 ppb Highest MBE: generally MAPOM, RAMS-RACM simulation