1 / 22

Evaluating the short-term effects of PM 2.5 and Saharan dust in Mediterranean cities

Evaluating the short-term effects of PM 2.5 and Saharan dust in Mediterranean cities. Massimo Stafoggia Rome, October 15 th 2012. OUTLINE. Background The MED-PARTICLES project Short-term effects of fine and coarse particles: methods and preliminary results

felix
Download Presentation

Evaluating the short-term effects of PM 2.5 and Saharan dust in Mediterranean cities

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Evaluating the short-term effects of PM2.5 and Saharan dust in Mediterranean cities Massimo Stafoggia Rome, October 15th 2012

  2. OUTLINE • Background • The MED-PARTICLES project • Short-term effects of fine and coarse particles: methods and preliminary results • Estimation of Saharan dust advection episodes: methods and results • Key points and perspectives

  3. BACKGROUND • The EU will deliver a new Directive on air quality standards on 2013 • Several issues still open: • Short-term effects of fine and coarse particles? • Role of natural events as Saharan dust and forest fires? • Which PM components are most responsible? • New evidence accepted until beginning of 2013

  4. The MED-PARTICLES project (1) MED-PARTICLES - Particles size and composition in Mediterranean countries: geographical variability and short-term health effects PARTNERS • DEP (Dept. Epidemiology, Rome) • ARPAP (Piedmont EPA, Turin) • NKUA (University of Athens, Athens) • CREAL (Barcelona) • CNR-IIA (National Research Council, Rome) • ARPA-ER (Emilia Romagna EPA) • INVS (Inst. de Veille Sanitaire, Saint Maurice) • CSIC (IDÆA, Barcelona)

  5. The MED-PARTICLES project (2) • COUNTRIES • Italy • Spain • Greece • France • (Cyprus?) • (Turkey?) DURATION 2 years, 09/2011 to 08/2013 (possibly until 12/2013) BUDGET € 1,836,016, of which € 901,579 (49.1%) EU-funded

  6. The MED-PARTICLES project (3) OBJECTIVES • To evaluate the geographical differences in PM size (PM10, PM2.5, PM2.5-10) and composition (EC, OC, nitrates, sulphates, metals) • To evaluate the frequency of Saharan dust days and forest fires days • To compare particles sizes and composition in different areas of Med countries according to Saharan dust and to forest fires days • To evaluate the short term effects of PM10, PM2.5, PM2.5-10on daily mortality and emergency cardio-respiratory hospitalizations • To evaluate effect modification of Saharan dust and forest fires on the health effects of particles • To explore the role of PM components on short-term health effects • To educate young scientists in epidemiological and statistical analyses and to disseminate the scientific information available to different stakeholders

  7. EFFECTS OF FINE AND COARSE PM • OBJECTIVE: to estimate the short-term association between daily concentrations of PM and daily counts of deaths/emergency hospitalizations for natural and cardio-pulmonary diseases • POPULATION and STUDY PERIOD: 10 cities (mortality), 8 cities (hospitalizations), ~ 2006-2010 • STATISTICAL METHODS • 1° stage: City-specific Poisson regression models, adjusting for time trends and meteorology • 2° stage: Random-effects meta-analysis

  8. Cities and study periods

  9. RESULTS: % increases per 10 mg/m3 increase in PM • Pooled effects • PM2.5: • 0.55% (0.27, 0.84) • PM2.5-10: • 0.30% (-0.10, 0.69) • PM10: • 0.31% (0.10, 0.52) Natural mortality (lag 0-1)

  10. RESULTS: % increases per 10 mg/m3 increase in PM • Pooled effects • PM2.5: • 0.86% (0.15, 1.57) • PM2.5-10: • 0.33% (-0.78, 1.46) • PM10: • 0.57% (0.08, 1.06) Cardiovascular mortality (lag 0-5)

  11. RESULTS: % increases per 10 mg/m3 increase in PM • Pooled effects • PM2.5: • 1.91% (0.71, 3.12) • PM2.5-10: • 0.76% (-0.70, 2.25) • PM10: • 1.24% (0.37, 2.12) Respiratory mortality (lag 0-5)

  12. RESULTS: % increases per 10 mg/m3 increase in PM Cardiovascular hospitalizations • Pooled effects • PM2.5: 0.43% (0.04, 0.83) • PM2.5-10: 0.78% (0.22, 1.35) • PM10: 0.33% (0.00, 0.66)

  13. RESULTS: % increases per 10 mg/m3 increase in PM Respiratory hospitalizations • Pooled effects • PM2.5: 1.25% (-0.02, 2.54) • PM2.5-10: 2.07% (-0.16, 4.35) • PM10: 0.78% (0.10, 1.46)

  14. SAHARAN DUST ADVECTION EPISODES • OBJECTIVE: • To identify Saharan dust advection episodes across the Mediterranean • To quantify the daily concentrations of PM10 attributable to Saharan dust • To estimate the short-term effects of PM10 due to Saharan dust contribution or due to local sources • POPULATION and STUDY PERIOD: 15 Mediterranean areas ~ 2001-2010 with estimated Saharan dust data, around 15 cities for epidemiological analyses

  15. SAHARAN DUST ADVECTION EPISODES • STATISTICAL METHODS • Satellite images, back-trajectories and operational models for Saharan dust identification • Application of the “40th percentile” methodology (Querol et al. 2009) to estimate daily contribution of Saharan dust to PM measured at rural sites • City-specific Poisson regression models, adjusting for time trends and meteorology, PLUS random-effects meta-analyses to estimate health effects of PM from Saharan dust and local sources

  16. SAHARAN DUST ADVECTION EPISODES Mediterranean areas with estimated Saharan dust data Pej J et al. 2012 (submitted)

  17. SAHARAN DUST ADVECTION EPISODES Mean frequency of African dust outbreaks (%) across the Mediterranean Basin during the period 2001-2011 Pej J et al. 2012 (submitted)

  18. SAHARAN DUST ADVECTION EPISODES Mean African dust contribution (mg/m3) across the Mediterranean Basin during the period 2001-2011 Pej J et al. 2012 (submitted)

  19. SAHARAN DUST ADVECTION EPISODES

  20. KEY POINTS • First european multi-center study to investigate short-term effects of fine and coarse particles • Strong effects of fine particles on mortality • Strong effects of fine and coarse particles on cardio-pulmonary hospitalizations • Extensive database available on Saharan dust advection episodes, which will allow to disentangle health effects of PM from natural and local sources • Still a lot to do…

  21. PERSPECTIVES • To estimate health effects of Saharan dust • To estimate forest fires and their health effects • To measure and compare PM components in several Mediterranean cities, and estimate their health effects • To implement source-apportionment methods and estimate health effects of different PM sources • To inform policy makers and stake-holders (mid-term workshop in February 2013, Barcelona, Spain, and final conference around October 2013, Rome, Italy) • To educate young researchers (summer course around June 2012, Santorini, Greece)

  22. MED-PARTICLES STUDY GROUP Italy: E. Alessandrini, G. Berti, L. Bisanti, E. Cadum, M. Catrambone, M. Chiusolo, P. Compagnucci, M. Davoli, F. de’ Donato, M. Demaria, M. Gandini, M. Grosa, A. Faustini, S. Ferrari, F. Forastiere, P. Pandolfi, R. Pelosini, C. Perrino, A. Pietrodangelo, L. Pizzi, V. Poluzzi, G. Priod, G. Randi, A. Ranzi, M. Rowinski, C. Scarinzi, M. Stafoggia, E. Stivanello, S. Zauli-Sajani; Greece: K. Dimakopoulou, K. Elefteriadis, K. Katsouyanni, A. Kelessis, T. Maggos, N. Michalopoulos, S. Pateraki, S. Rodopoulou, E. Samoli, V. Sypsa; Spain: J. Alguacil, B. Artiñano, J. Barrera-Gómez, X. Basagaña, J. de la Rosa, J. Diaz, B. Jacquemin, A. Karanasiou, C. Linares, B. Ostro, J. Pey, X. Querol, J. Sunyer, A. Tobias; France: M. Bidondo, C. Declercq, A. Le Tertre, P. Lozano, S. Medina, L. Pascal, M. Pascal.

More Related