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Overview

BUS RAPID TRANSIT AS A CATALYST FOR LAND USE CHANGE: THE ROUTE 1 CORRIDOR CASE STUDY 11th TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference May 9, 2007 Matthew Hardy, Lead Transportation Engineer Donald Roberts, Senior Principal Manager. Overview. Background Literature Review

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Overview

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  1. BUS RAPID TRANSIT AS A CATALYST FOR LAND USE CHANGE:THE ROUTE 1 CORRIDOR CASE STUDY11th TRB National Transportation Planning Applications ConferenceMay 9, 2007Matthew Hardy, Lead Transportation EngineerDonald Roberts, Senior Principal Manager

  2. Overview • Background • Literature Review • Research Question and Hypothesis • Methodology and Analysis • Hypothesis Testing • Conclusion

  3. Background • 2005 BRAC Recommendations: • Consolidate 21,000 government employees from Crystal City to Ft. Belvoir • Transportation infrastructure consists of 4-lane Route 1 • Limited bus service, no rail service • Current transportation planning notfocused on Route 1 Corridor • This research provides first systematic evaluation of transit aspects for Route 1 Corridor

  4. The Route 1 Corridor Crystal City Rt. 1 Corridor Ft. Belvoir

  5. Crystal City

  6. Ft. Belvoir

  7. Literature Review 1) BRAC Impacts 2) Transportation & Land Use 3) Bus Rapid Transit

  8. BRAC Impacts • 2005 BRAC recommendation unique for the National Capital Region • Calls for major intra-region consolidation • 1988, 1991, 1993 and 1995 recommendations focused on inter-region consolidation • WashCOG BRAC Impact Analysis • Limited impact on the region • Possible localized impact (Arlington/Fairfax County)

  9. Transportation & Land Use • Role of Government • Insure mixed-use components? • Free market activities? • Economic Realities? • Transit and Land Use • Focus on Rail. Why? “increasingly en vogue with policy-makers, the media and researchers due to nostalgia, potential environmental efficiency, ease of provision of high frequency service and attractiveness of guaranteed service”

  10. Characteristics of Bus Rapid Transit (CBRT) ITS & BRT Assessment Tool Developed by Noblis Sketch planning tool that “automates” CBRT Bus Rapid Transit

  11. Research Statements

  12. Research Questions • Can a transit system be implemented in the Route 1 Corridor that provides high-quality service as defined in the literature review? • Can a transit service be constructed such that the opportunity cost associated with it does not preclude other corridors from receiving transit service? • Will or can a bus-based transit service foster land use change? • What type of transit system can be operational by 2011?

  13. Hypothesis BRT systems provide high-quality transit service in terms of travel time and system capacity, reduce opportunity costs over other transportation options (thus enable funding for additional transit service in other corridors in the application region), and act as a catalyst for land use change.

  14. Methodology 1) Comparable BRT and LRT Systems 2) ITS & BRT Assessment Tool

  15. Comparable BRT and LRT Systems • Silver Line: Boston, MA • MAX: Las Vegas, NV • San Pablo RAPID: Oakland, CA • Brisbane South East Busway: Brisbane, Australia • TransMillenio: Bogota, Columbia • LRT: Developed from Comparison of Bus Rapid Transit & Light Rail Transit Characteristics

  16. Transit Modeling Spectrum ITS & BRT Assessment Tool TLOS TransCAD VISSIM TCQOS ITSUP SmartBRT FTIS CBRT Complex Simple 4-Step Process STEAM SPASM IDAS Paramics Benefit-cost Analysis SCRITS Limited, Rough Estimation, Short Run Times, Limited Training, Lower Set-Up Costs, Quicker Development Comprehensive, Precise Calculation, Longer Run Times, Training Required, Higher Set-Up Costs, Longer Development

  17. Role of CBRT and IBAT CBRT Systems/Sketch Planning Supported by IBAT Alternatives Analysis Alternative Analysis Number of Alternatives Preliminary Engineering Final Design and Construction Final Design and Construction Level of Detail

  18. ITS & BRT Assessment Tool Inputs Analysis Outputs • Running Way • Fare Collection • Station Design • Vehicle Characteristics • Marketing/Image • Service Plan • Legacy ITS • Network/Corridor ITS Decision Tree(Hierarchy) • Packages of ITS • Min, Avg, Max • Costs • Benefits • ROI • Impact Measures ITS Refinement Network/Corridor Analysis Algorithm System PerformanceMeasures ITS Impact Algorithm ITS Enhanced BRT Characteristics of BRT BRT Impact Database Characteristics of BRT TCRP A-23 TCRP A-23a

  19. Analysis 1) System Performance Measures 2) Opportunity Costs 3) Land Use Impact

  20. System Evaluation Table

  21. System Performance Measures • Average Operating Speeds • BRT: 8 to 15 mph • LRT: 12 mph • Route 1 BRT: 12.7 mph • System Capacity • BRT: 1440 pphpd (U.S.) and 41,000 pphpd (Bogota) • LRT: 9600 pphpd • Route 1 BRT: 5400 pphpd System capacity is not a limiting factor for BRT given the estimated passenger demand.

  22. Opportunity Costs • Capital Costs • BRT: $230k to $16,600k per mile • LRT: $50,000k per mile • Route 1 BRT: $10,600k per mile • Operating Costs • No comparable BRT/LRT figures • Operating costs for bus systems (not BRT) are 1/3 to 1/2 those of LRT

  23. Land Use Impacts • Quantifiable data difficult to obtain • No formal land use impact evaluation of U.S. BRT system • Boston Silver Line ex post assessment real estate data suggest $1.22 billion in real estate investment • International Data • Brisbane: 20% increase in land values within 6 miles of BRT station (2 to 3 times higher rate than elsewhere) • TransMillenio purpose centered around land use changes

  24. Hypothesis Testing

  25. Conclusions

  26. Route 1 BRT Analysis • There is strong evidence that BRT is a viable transit option for the Route 1 Corridor • Faster development cycle, innovative operating characteristics, lower opportunity costs • IBAT tool sufficient to model BRT for sketch planning purposes • Policy Implications • BRT versus LRT Opportunity Costs • BRT Service Flexibility • Financing Transit • Future Research • Development of evaluation model for U.S. BRT deployments • BRT and land use connection

  27. Thank You. Matt Hardy Lead Transportation Engineer (202) 863-2982 matthew.hardy@noblis.org Don Roberts Senior Principal Manager (202) 863-2976 dlrobert@noblis.org

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