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Global Warming and Science. So far the balanced story of basic science is not getting through to the public There is at least one alternate hypothesis and a new theory Fran Manns, Artesian Geological Research, Toronto. What is Global Warming?.

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global warming and science

Global Warming and Science

So far the balanced story of basic science is not getting through to the public

There is at least one alternate hypothesis

and a new theory

Fran Manns, Artesian Geological Research, Toronto

Artesian Geological Research

what is global warming
What is Global Warming?
  • Throughout time the Earth’s climate has varied
  • Since the base of the Pleistocene (1.8 M ya) there have been at least 30 glacial - interglacial cycles of 40,000 years to 100,000 years duration with interglacial periods warmer than now between them
  • Sea level has risen 125 metres in the past 20,000 years. That 6 mm a year (arithmetic average).
    • ICPP recently cited 2-3 mm a year – one might say it’s slowing down.
    • All the world’s coastal tribes have flood myths because they lived on the continental shelves.
  • Between glacial ages the climate varies due to external and internal influences – some result in cooling. Others allow the Earth to warm
  • There are short-term cycles – e.g. ‘El Niño’, among others: for example - the 10 to 12 year long solar energy cycles, and cycles that relate to oscillation of Atlantic and Pacific ocean masses, and the Milankovich orbital cycle.

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solar system

Solar System

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what if
What If?
  • If The atmosphere did not absorb incoming heat, we would roast all day and freeze-dry at night and end up like a sun-dried tomato
    • Mercury - + 427 to – 172 ºC
    • Mars - temperate zone soil
    • + 27 to – 80 ºC
    • Moon - + 107 to 153 ºC

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what is the greenhouse effect
What is the Greenhouse Effect?
  • Certain gasses in the atmosphere absorb heat energy and reduce the amount that escapes into space
  • This ‘trapping’ of heat from our only source of warmth – the Sun – by the atmosphere is known as the ‘Greenhouse Effect’
  • This gives us a global average temperature of +15°C rather than -18°C if we had no Greenhouse Effect

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important facts
Important Facts
  • Water vapour is the most important greenhouse gas - ~ 60 - 98% of the greenhouse effect is due to water vapour in the atmosphere (jury still out)
  • CO2 and other minor gasses account for the remainder

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slide10
Contribution to the Greenhouse Effect (including water vapour) http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/greenhouse_data.html

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is global warming happening
Is Global Warming Happening?
  • Lets examine some very wiggly curves
  • Death Valley California - temperature trend

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berkeley california
Berkeley California

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blaine washington
Blaine Washington

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new york ny
New York NY

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albany ny
Albany NY

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harrisburg pa civil war gap

Harrisburg Pa – Civil War gap

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state university mississippi
State University Mississippi

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chicago illinois
Chicago Illinois

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buffalo ny
Buffalo NY

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niagara falls ny 1911
Niagara Falls NY - 1911

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key west florida
Key West Florida

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global warming
Global Warming
  • Typically the majority of weather stations yield corrupt time series data
  • Those weather stations are located where people are living. Thus, it is far from a random sample of the surface of the world, rather a measure of increasing human density
  • Death Valley, Key West, Blaine, and Houlton are far (remote) from urban centres and are likely more reliable Who knows about Berkeley? Albany vs. New York City?
  • Since 1979, temperatures have been measured from satellites. Not surprisingly, these measurements give a much smaller warming.

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realistically
Realistically
  • The planet is not warming in the dramatic manner the alarmists claim
  • There are many other sites that demonstrate cooling
  • I accept the warming but not the drama
  • I do not accept the popular ‘cause’ – CO2
  • Why are the graphs so wiggly?
  • Because climate is not weather

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kam l 2003
Kamél, 2003
  • “In the past couple of years, new and better analysis of the Antarctic ice data, giving a better time resolution, have shown that first temperature rises, and then carbon dioxide levels increase. It is the temperature increase which causes the increase in CO2 and not the other way around.
  • The extra CO2 could at most add a little extra warming to what is going on, but not even that is certain”.

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co 2 increase in the atmosphere is a trailing phenomenon
CO2 increase in the atmosphere is a trailing phenomenon

Throughout the greatest temperature transitions experienced by the planet over the past 420,000 years, atmospheric CO2 concentration has been proven to have been a follower, and not a leader, of climate change, rising from one to five thousand years after major increases in air temperature, and falling in similar manner throughout the course of the past four glacial/interglacial cycles (Mudelsee, M., 2001).

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observations
Observations
  • Warming precedes CO2 increase - likely due to warming of the oceans
    • CO2 has inverse solubility in liquid (warm your Guinness to see this effect)
  • CO2 has a geometrically wasting greenhouse gas effect – more CO2– less effectiveness

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co 2 has inverse solubility in liquid
CO2 has inverse solubility in liquid
  • Solubility of solids increases directly with temperature of the solvent
    • sugar dissolves more rapidly in hot water than cold
  • Carbon dioxide dissolves quickly in cold water and evolves rapidly out of warm water
    • Don’t shake your Guinness!

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slide29
And…
  • You might say, and ‘alarmists’ say every day, that the new anthropogenic CO2 from the industrial revolution is tipping the climate over into uncontrollable heating…

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co 2 feedback effect
CO2 Feedback effect
  • Has a geometrically wasting property (Kamél, 2003)
      • Analogous to Venetian blinds and light
        • Adding a second and third set of Venetian blinds to the same window becomes decreasingly effective in blocking incoming light
    • More CO2– less additional greenhouse effect
    • Increase in CO2 has less effect because
      • Carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere has exactly one important spectral line in the infrared part of the spectrum. This line is clearly saturated.
        • If you increase the number of CO2 molecules in the atmosphere, not much will happen

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downward forcing all greenhouse gasses vs increasing co 2 content willis eschenbach
Downward forcing - all greenhouse gasses - vs. increasing CO2 content-Willis Eschenbach

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absorption wavelength co 2 vs h 2 o
Absorption wavelength CO2 vs. H2O

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look up recognise the variation is in the fourth significant digit
Look up! - recognise the variation is in the fourth significant digit

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annual sunspot averages 1700 to 2003
Annual Sunspot Averages 1700 to 2003

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sunspot peak frequency vs temperature anomaly black temperature anomaly red sun spot peak frequency
Sunspot peak frequency vs. temperature anomalyBlack – Temperature anomalyRed – Sun spot peak frequency

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friis christensen and lassen 1991 science magazine
Friis-Christensen and Lassen (1991) Science Magazine
  • 95% correlation between sunspot peak frequency and the temperature anomaly
  • Sunspot curve, moreover, does lead the temperature curve
  • But, correlation is not causation
  • What is the cause?

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danish national space centre
Danish National Space Centre
  • “An essential role for remote stars in everyday weather on Earth has been revealed by an experiment at the Danish National Space Center in Copenhagen. It is already well-established that when cosmic rays, which are high-speed atomic particles originating in exploded stars far away in the Milky Way, penetrate the Earth’s atmosphere, they produce substantial amounts of ions and release free electrons.
  • Now, results from the Danish experiment show that the released electrons play a significant role in promoting the formation of building blocks for cloud condensation nuclei, on which water vapor condenses to make clouds. Hence, a causal mechanism by which cosmic rays can facilitate the production of clouds in Earth’s atmosphere has been experimentally identified for the first time.”
  • http://www.spacecenter.dk/publications/press-releases/getting-closer-to-the-cosmic-connection-to-climate

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danish space centre theory
Danish Space Centre Theory
    • ‘Active’ sun → enhanced magnetic and thermal flux = solar wind→geomagnetic shieldresponse→ less low-level clouds → less albedo (less heat reflected)  → warmer climate
    • Less active sun → reduced magnetic and thermal flux = reduced solar wind → geomagnetic shield drops → galactic cosmic ray flux→ more low-level clouds → More snow → more albedo (more heat reflected) →colder climate
  • That's how the bulk of climate change works
  • Coupled with sunspot peak frequency there are cycles of global warming and cooling like waves in the ocean

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potentially large sources of cosmic radiation when stars supernova
Potentially large sources of cosmic radiation when stars supernova

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co 2 vs friis christensen and lassen science 1991 www friendsofscience org
CO2 vs. Friis-Christensen and Lassen (Science, 1991) www.friendsofscience.org

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co 2 and temperature anomaly
CO2 and Temperature Anomaly
  • Temperature rise preceded CO2 from 1890 to 1950
  • CO2 does not correlate with temperature anomaly from 1940 to 1970
  • Temperature rise does correlate with solar activity
  • CO2 rise cannot be a cause of warming

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water vapour is the most important greenhouse gas
Water vapour is the most important greenhouse gas
  • The most variable component of the atmosphere is water in its various phases such as vapour, cloud droplets, and ice crystals. Water vapour is the strongest greenhouse gas. For these reasons and because the transition between the various phases absorb and release so much energy, water vapour is central to the climate and its variability and change.

Climate Change 2001: The Scientific BasisSection 1.1.2 The Climate System

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we are at the end of the 23rd cycle since sunspots were first recorded
We are at the end of the 23rd Cycle since sunspots were first recorded

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cycle 23
Cycle 23
  • The cycle was short - 10 years (out of 11)
    • Bimodal peak is interesting (cycle 22 was bimodal too)
    • We are experiencing the sunspot minimum this fall and winter
  • Anecdotally, this is consistent with both a warmer than usual climate and also the result of the Danish cloud chamber experiment
    • High precipitation in humid regions of the planet like the Great Lakes Region and NA west coast
    • Desertification in regions of low humidity
  • El Nino

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why realistically
Why? Realistically?
  • Is CO2 the target?
    • CO2 hypothesis has precedence (1897)?
    • Media propagation? – ‘Bottom Line’
        • Repetition of stale ‘science’
    • Bandwagon ‘science’? - DDT and Malaria!
    • Consensus ‘science’? - Copernicus and Galileo!
    • Publish or perish? - Mann and the Hockey Stick
    • Research grants? – Tied to outcome
  • All of the above?

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original sin

Original Sin

Gracious no! Humans can only claim responsibility, if that's the word, for about 3.4% of carbon dioxide emitted to the atmosphere annually, the rest of it is all natural (IPCC, Woods Hole)

Anthropogenic 0.11% of the global CO2 cycle

www.CO2Science.org

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my hypothesis is very weak
My hypothesis is very weak
  • Eruption of Krakatau, 1883

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skepticism or objectivity
Skepticism or Objectivity

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moving to higher ground above an inconvenient truth
Moving to higher ground above An Inconvenient Truth

"A scientific hypothesis that survives experimental testing becomes a scientific theory"

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key references
Key References

Friss-Christensen, E. and K. Lassen, 1991: Length of the Solar Cycle - an indicator of solar activity closely associated with climate, Science, New Series, Vol. 254, No. 5032, Nov. 1, 1991, pp.698-700.

Svensmark, Henrik, Jens Olaf P. Pedersen, Nigel D. Marsh, Martin B. Enghoff, and Ulrik I. Uggerhoj, 2006: Experimental evidence for the role of ions in particle nucleation under atmospheric conditions, Proceedings of the Royal Society (A), Proc. R Soc. A, doi:10.1098/rspa.20061773. Published online.

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references
References

Temperature

Lars Kamél, 2003: Temperature measurements: Is climate research pseudo science?

Swedish original text from June, English translation from Nov, 2003, a few updates made since.

http://www.astro.uu.se/~l/noworry.htm

United States Historical Climatology Network dataset

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/ushcn/ushcn.html

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references52
References

CO2 as plant food

Eamus, D. 1996: Responses of field grown trees to CO2 enrichment. Commonwealth Forestry Review 75: 39-47.

Eklundh, L. and Olsson, L. 2003: Vegetation index trends for the African Sahel 1982-1999. Geophysical Research Letters 30: 10.1029/2002GL016772.

Saxe, H., Ellsworth, D.S. and Heath, J. 1998: Tree and forest functioning in an enriched CO2 atmosphere. New Phytologist 139: 395-436.

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references53
References

CO2 Saturation

Elachi, Charles, 1987: Introduction to the Physics and Techniques of Remote Sensing (John Wiley & Sons)

Kamél, Lars, 2003: Why we don't have to worry about CO2, Department of Astronomy and Space Physics, Uppsala, Sweden

http://www.astro.uu.se/~l/noworry.htm

CO2 Trailing effect

Mudelsee, M., 2001: The phase relations among atmospheric CO2 content, temperature and global ice volume over the past 420 ka. Quaternary Science Reviews 20: 583-589.

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other reading
Other Reading

deFreitas, C.R., 2002: Are observed changes in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere really dangerous?, Bulletin of Canadian Petroleum Geology, Vol. 50, No. 2 (June 2002), pp. 297-327, School of Geology and Environmental Science, Auckland, New Zealand.

McIntyre, Steven and McKitrick, Ross, 2005: Hockey Sticks, principal components, and spurious significance, Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L03710, doi:10.1029/2004GL021750

Wegman, Edward J., David W. Scott and Yasmin H. Said, 2006: Ad hoc committee report on the ‘Hockey stick’ global climate reconstruction, To The Chairman of the Committee on Energy and Commerce and the Chairman of the Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations, US House of Representatives.

The IPCC ReportClimate Change 2001: Third Assessment Report consists of four sub-reports: 1) Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, 2) Climate Change 2001: Impacts , Adaptation and Vulnerabilities, 3) Climate Change 2001:Mitigation, and 4) Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report.

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slide55

Francis T. Manns, Ph.D., P.Geo. (Ontario)

artesian1@sympatico.ca

323 Blantyre Avenue

Toronto Ontario

M1N 2S6 Canada

416-698-6291

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acknowledgements
Acknowledgements
  • Jim Tilsley
  • Les Manns
  • Richard Bedell

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