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Global Warming and Science. March 4, 2008 Dr. Nicholas Drapela Department of Chemistry, Oregon State University. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gJxwl69mrEM. Disclaimer – Why this talk?. A bit about me B.S., Science Education, Chemistry and Physics

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global warming and science

Global Warmingand Science

March 4, 2008

Dr. Nicholas Drapela

Department of Chemistry,

Oregon State University

disclaimer why this talk
Disclaimer – Why this talk?
  • A bit about me
    • B.S., Science Education, Chemistry and Physics
    • Ph.D., Chemistry, Organic Natural Product Synthesis
    • Not a Republican
    • Own no stocks in oil companies (or any other companies for that matter)
    • Disagree strongly w/ Bush administration
    • Love the outdoors and the environment
    • Love polar bears and clean air and water
  • The truth has no agenda
  • The truth is not dependent on consensus, real or artificial
science the focus
Science – The Focus
  • This talk focuses on the science behind Global Warming
  • It is intended for general audiences
  • Politics, ecology, sociology, and economics are avoided if possible
  • See for yourself
    • Check this 
for a free copy of these slides
For a Free Copy of these slides…
  • Send an email to me at:
    • nick.drapela@orst.edu
    • Put “GWAS” in the Subject line
part 1

Part 1

What is Global Warming?

what makes up this greenhouse
What Makes Up This Greenhouse?
  • Gases in our atmosphere which absorb IR waves and radiate some of the heat back toward the earth
    • Methane
    • Nitrous oxide
    • Chlorofluorocarbons
    • Carbon dioxide (CO2)
global warming doctrine
Global Warming Doctrine
  • Modern society burns fossil fuels such as
    • Gasoline, natural gas, coal
  • All of these give off CO2 as they burn
  • The added CO2 in the atmosphere is increasing the greenhouse effect on the earth
  • This is increasing the temperature of the earth beyond its normal range
  • Soon, this will result in disastrous consequences for life on earth
  • The only way to avoid this is to reduce world CO2 emissions
predictions from global warming
Predictions From Global Warming
  • Rising sea levels
  • Existential threat to low-lying areas such as Venice, San Francisco, the Netherlands, and Florida
  • Melting of glaciers and ice caps

http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/jan2005/2005-01-28-10.asp

predictions from global warming1
Predictions From Global Warming
  • Agriculture losses
  • Water shortages
  • Massive drought
  • Food shortages

http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/jan2005/2005-01-28-10.asp

predictions from global warming2
Predictions From Global Warming
  • Loss of habitat for arctic wildlife
  • Inuit children unable to continue in their culture

http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/jan2005/2005-01-28-10.asp

predictions from global warming3
Predictions From Global Warming
  • Severe loss of marine life
  • Extinction of polar bears
  • Widespread adverse health effects

http://climate-change.suite101.com/article.cfm/global_warming_predictions

http://www.worldwildlife.org/climate/science/arcticReport.cfm

predictions from global warming4
Predictions From Global Warming
  • Severe storms
  • Large-scale energy disruptions
  • The world is running out of time

http://climate-change.suite101.com/article.cfm/global_warming_predictions

slide18
“An increasing body of observations gives a collective picture of a warming world and other changes in the climate system.”
  • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2001
part 2

Part 2

None of this is true

preview
Preview
  • There is no factual evidence to show that the earth is now without question above its normal, historical temperature range.
  • There is no factual evidence to show that it soon will be, or ever will be.
  • Even if it were, CO2 could not be causing it.
fact 1
Fact #1
  • There is indeed a greenhouse effect on the earth; and that is good
  • If there were not, the earth’s temperature would drop by roughly 60°F, ending life as we know it on earth
fact 2
Fact #2
  • Global Warming theory is based on models, not on evidence
  • These computer models are made up by people, and are limited by
    • the programmer
    • our scientific knowledge
    • the ethics of the people who invent them

http://www.physorg.com/news593.html

hard data or prediction
Hard Data or Prediction?
  • Graphs such as this one are based on extrapolations from weather models, not data
  • Check this 

http://www.americanthinker.com/2007/09/one_more_reason_to_distrust_gl.html

the famous hockey stick
The Famous Hockey Stick
  • The only irregular part of the graph is the model, not the data

McIntyre, Stephen; Ross McKitrick, Geophysical Research Letters2005, 2, 32

fact 3
Fact #3
  • These models have already shown to be incorrect
  • Ex. Model prediction: Troposphere warming
    • Actual fact: No significant troposphere warming is occurring

http://www.cnsnews.com/ViewNation.asp?Page=/Nation/archive/200205/NAT20020514b.html

hurricanes
Hurricanes
  • Ex. model prediction: 2006 worst hurricane year on record
    • Actual fact: 2006, 2007 two of the calmest hurricane seasons in decades
  • Check this 
  • Many other model failures exist

http://edition.cnn.com/2006/WEATHER/11/30/hurricanes/index.html

http://www.usatoday.com/weather/stormcenter/2005-11-30-hurricane-cycle_x.htm

global cooling
Global Cooling
  • In 1970, scientists agreed by consensus that the earth was headed for catastrophic global cooling

“(Scientists) are almost unanimous in the view that the (cooling) trend will reduce agricultural productivity for the rest of the century…the resulting famines could be catastrophic." --Newsweek, 1975

global cooling was certain
Global Cooling Was “Certain”

http://www.gerrycharlottephelps.com/2006/06/the_cooling_wor.html

slide29
“If 50 million people say a stupid thing, it is still a stupid thing.”
  • Anatole France (1844-1924)
past predictions
Past Predictions
  • “In ten years all important animal life in the sea will be extinct. Large areas of coastline will have to be evacuated because of the stench of dead fish.”
    • Paul Ehrlich, Center for Conservation Biology, Stanford University
    • Predicted in 1970
fact 4
Fact #4
  • Global warming predictions commonly change to fit whatever data is most recently discovered
    • More rain, then less rain
    • Ice cap melting, then ice cap growing
    • Drought, then flooding
  • No piece of information can be used to disprove the doctrine
  • Check this 

http://www.livescience.com/environment/070531_gw_rainfall.html

fact 5
Fact #5
  • Weather records show that increased human CO2 emissions were linked to decreased earth temperatures from 1940-1980
fact 6
Fact #6
  • The amount of CO2 released and absorbed by oceans each year dwarfs the amount emitted by humans
  • 93% of all CO2 in the earth and its atmosphere is contained in the ocean

http://www.waterencyclopedia.com/Bi-Ca/Carbon-Dioxide-in-the-Ocean-and-Atmosphere.html

fact 7
Fact #7
  • When oceans warm, they release CO2
  • This is why [CO2] has increased and decreased over time
inconveniently separated
Inconveniently Separated
  • Temperature/CO2 correlation in ice core records from “An Inconvenient Truth”
  • Why are the graphs separated?
co 2 levels follow temp changes
CO2 Levels Follow Temp Changes
  • Note on close inspection that CO2lags behind temperature, not the reverse
  • (Also note that CO2 levels have been naturally varying for eons w/o human fossil fuel emissions)
fact 8
Fact #8
  • The most abundant greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, by far,…is water vapor
  • 95% of heat trapped in the troposphere is due to water vapor

http://www.geyserlandobservatory.org/atmosphere/atmosphere.html

http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/alternate/page/environment/appd_d.html

ir absorptions
IR Absorptions
  • Water vapor absorbs energy in the same regions of the infrared as CO2
greenhouse efficiency of water
Greenhouse Efficiency of Water
  • Besides being more abundant, water is three times as efficient at absorbing infrared energy as CO2
fact 9
Fact #9
  • Other planets in our solar system are warming as well
  • Numerous studies are showing that Mars, Jupiter, Neptune, and the moon Triton are all warming

http://www.usatoday.com/tech/science/space/2006-05-04-jupiter-jr-spot_x.htm?POE=TECISVA

http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2007/2006GL028764.shtml

http://www.scienceagogo.com/news/19980526052143data_trunc_sys.shtml

http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/1998/triton.html

http://motls.blogspot.com/2006/05/global-warming-on-jupiter.html

martian icecaps
Martian Icecaps
  • The icecaps on Mars are melting
  • If CO2 is the culprit, why is Mars also warming?

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/02/070228-mars-warming.html

martian warming
Martian Warming
  • "Mars has global warming, but without a greenhouse and without the participation of Martians.”
    • Dr. Habibullo Abdussamatov

Director, Space Research Laboratory

Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory

Russian Academy of Science

http://www.nationalpost.com/story.html?id=edae9952-3c3e-47ba-913f-7359a5c7f723&k=0

fact 10
Fact #10
  • In the last 4 months, almost all “lost” polar ice has returned
  • This fact is reported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

http://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/global_warming_or_cooling/2008/02/19/73798.html

growing ice caps
Growing Ice Caps
  • “The ice between Canada and southwestern Greenland has reached its highest level in 15 years.”
    • Meteorological Institute of Denmark, 2008
  • Levels of Antarctic ice are also increased—one third higher than normal for this time of year

http://newsbusters.org/blogs/lynn-davidson/2008/02/16/western-greenland-ice-growing-still-global-warming

polar bear party
Polar Bear Party
  • Despite popular media portrayal, polar bear numbers are increasing
  • Canadian government survey: Polar bear population has increased 250% in last 20 years
  • The indigenous Inuit people report the same

http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=1ea8233f-14da-4a44-b839-b71a9e5df868

fact 11
Fact #11
  • When compared with larger-timeframe historical temperatures, current earth temperatures are in the normal range
fact 12
Fact #12
  • Despite strenuous attempts to claim consensus and the end of debate, Global Warming theory is far from accepted by all scientists
  • 2008 International Conference on Climate Change, New York
    • March 2-4, 2008
  • Check this 
non believers
Non-Believers
  • John Coleman, Founder of the Weather Channel
  • Dr. Patrick Moore, Founder of Greenpeace
  • Prof. Richard Lindzen, MIT Meteorology and climate expert
  • Michael Crichton, Author

http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog/comments_about_global_warming/

http://www.basinelectric.com/NewsCenter/News/FeaturedArticles/Greenpeace_founder_d.html

http://physicsworld.com/cws/article/print/26945

http://www.heartland.org/Article.cfm?artId=16260

weather channel founder
Weather Channel Founder
  • “It is the greatest scam in history. I am amazed, appalled, and highly offended by it. Global Warming; it is a scam.”
    • John Coleman
mit meteorologist
MIT Meteorologist
  • “(The IPCC) has decided that they have to convince other people that since no scientist disagrees you shouldn’t disagree either. Whenever you hear that in science, it’s pure propaganda.”
    • Prof. Richard Lindzen
fact 13
Fact #13
  • Lay people can make valid observations
  • Facts surround us
    • Deep freeze over US and southern Asia set records the past few Winters
    • Much of citrus crop in California and Florida was destroyed by ice
    • Record lows have been observed world-wide in the last few years

http://gatewaypundit.blogspot.com/2008/02/brrrr-260-dead-in-south-asia-pakistan.html

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sjt/html/news/April7thwinterwx.html

http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/weather/02/11/minnesota.cold.ap/

part 3

Part 3

Are you serious?

social reaction
Social Reaction
  • Cognitive dissonance
  • Stages of reaction:
  • 1. Anger
  • 2. Bigotry
  • 3. Resentment
  • 4. Frustration
  • 5. Re-evaluation
  • 6. Awakening
  • 7. Activism
concluding points
Concluding Points
  • 1. No cause is served well by misinformation
  • 2. Be an independent thinker
  • 3. Do not be discouraged! YOU can make a difference!
  • There are many worthy causes. Choose one, research it, and take it up, and make a real difference
possible further talks
Possible Further Talks
  • “Global Warming and Social Engineering”
  • “Global Warming: An Alternate Theory”