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MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – 17-18 April 2013

WP 07 MONITORING & FORECASTING CENTRE for BALTIC SEA MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – Cork /16-17 April 2013. MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – 17-18 April 2013. Partnership. BAL MFC: 6 partners DMI: manage BAL MFC nominal PU BSH: leads quality assessment & link to Quality WP17

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MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – 17-18 April 2013

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  1. WP 07MONITORING & FORECASTINGCENTRE for BALTIC SEA MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – Cork /16-17 April 2013 MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – 17-18 April 2013

  2. Partnership BAL MFC: 6 partners DMI: manage BAL MFC nominal PU BSH: leads quality assessment & link to Quality WP17 back-up PU FMI: leads the data assimilation work main Baltic link to the R&D WP19. MSI: Cal/Val unit and performs all Cal/Val activities in BAL MFC. SMHI : DU for BAL MFC + local Service Desk Baltic partner in the Reanalysis WP18 HZG: link research activities in the BAL MFC and other MFCs MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – 17-18 April 2013

  3. Partnership WP 7 Baltic Sea MFC (coordination) DMI Implementation & Transition R&D Operation Service BSH (HBM, Cal/Val) DMI (HBM, ERGOM) FMI (DA) MSI (Cal/Val metrics) FMI, HZG,SMHI (WP19: NEMO) SMHI (SD) DMI (PU) BSH (PU) MSI (Cal/Val) SMHI (DU) BSH DMI FMI MSI SMHI MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – 17-18 April 2013

  4. Work Package Main Objectives • BAL MFC delivers these products: • Forecast for the physical parameters in the Baltic Sea: • 60 hours forecast • hourly instantaneous values • Updated twice pr day • Forecast for the bio-chemical parameters in the Baltic Sea: • 60 hours forecast • hourly instantaneous values • Updated twice pr day • 2 different Reanalyses for the physical parametres in the Baltic Sea • monthly averaged values for 20 years (1990-2009) MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – 17-18 April 2013

  5. Work Package Main Objectives • System: • Continue to develop and improve: • - Baltic community ocean model HIROMB-BOOS-Model (HBM) • performance & quality • - BioGeoChemical module (ERGOM) • improve technical standard, performance & quality • DA scheme: improve performance; improvements -> into production • Improve operational set up: new grids; bathymetry; coastline … • Product: • Improve quality (continue improvements: V0-V1-V2-V3-V4) • Improve resolution • Initative on multi-model uncertainty estimates MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – 17-18 April 2013

  6. System Evolution • Main achievements are • V2.2 upgrade (Nov 2012): • - improved performance • - enlarged computational grid: ver. from 50 up to 109 • V3 upgrade (next week) • - enlarged computational grid: • hor.: 3n.m. -> 1n.m. & ver.: 109 -> 122 layers • - new initial fields (T & S) • - new local coastline & local bottom friction • - improved performance • Moved DU (share the opr. load in the group) • Uncertainty estimates Multi Model Ensembles (initiated BAL-NWS-WP17) • Learned by experience: the value of a separate back up product … MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – 17-18 April 2013

  7. Production Evolution • Main achievements are: • V3 products: • deliver products on new grid : Baltic Sea 1 n.m. • 25 layers (same as V2): 0, 5, 10,.. 100, 150, 200, 300, 400 metres • Quality improvements (seen from 2 years Cal run): • - Improved initial fields (bottom T & S) • - Higher spatial resolution: • improved SST • improved bottom salinity • - Local improvements: • - improved bathymetry & local bottom friction (entrance to Baltic) • - improved coastline (Estonian coast) MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – 17-18 April 2013

  8. Improvements, results, illustrations 3 examples: 1) improved SST verified by tide gauges: new coastline around Estonia + higher resolution V2.2 V3 V2.2 V3 Obs MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – 17-18 April 2013

  9. Improvements, results, illustrations 2) Bottom salinity: Improved due to higher grid resolution V2.2 V3 V2 V3 MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – 17-18 April 2013

  10. Improvements, results, illustrations 3) Storm surge event Nov 2011: Entrance to Baltic Sea -Observed gradient 2.5 m across sill not capturedin model => Investigation: - bottom friction: local increase - Revision bathymetry Obs V2.2 V3 MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – 17-18 April 2013

  11. Production Evolution • Main difficulties encountered • BAL group: we have had a not trivial discussion about… • core services contra downstream services • or… • MyOcean product/service contra national /commercial services • Our solution: • BAL MFC delivers best available product within technical limits of CIS • Need for a discussion? • - Do we [all regions] see a clear separation MyOcean / National Services? • - what do users expect? And contact? • V3 product file sizes: • 2 x 15 GB for 60 hours forecast • Need some compression... MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – 17-18 April 2013

  12. First period summary and next steps • Summary of 1st year: • Improved product resolution • Improved product quality (twice) • Re-organized the group a bit…[new DU; new DA unit; REA unit] • V4 plans: • HBM: Improve the ice model • DA: test implementation • Bio-chemical: improve model quality • Quality metrics: new implementations • multi –model uncertainty estimates in Baltic MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – 17-18 April 2013

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