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CIA Annual Meeting. LOOKING BACK…focused on the future. Experience Studies. East Coast Edition!!!. June 29, 2005 #4608. Contestants: Scott McGaire, AVP and Actuary, Manulife Financial Lloyd Milani, Actuarial Services Vice-President, Munich Re. Potpourri $100 Mission Impossible

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CIA Annual Meeting


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    1. CIA Annual Meeting LOOKING BACK…focused on the future

    2. Experience Studies East Coast Edition!!! June 29, 2005 #4608

    3. Contestants: • Scott McGaire, AVP and Actuary, Manulife Financial • Lloyd Milani, Actuarial Services Vice-President, Munich Re

    4. Potpourri $100 • Mission Impossible • What is the mission or term of reference for the Committee on Expected Experience?

    5. Mission • Identify the need for and conduct, on a periodic basis, experience studies on demographics, claims, expense and other occurrences of actuarial interest relating to as many areas of actuarial practice as possible, including the preparation of experience tables. Analyze the experience with particular emphasis on its applicability to, and impact on, actuarial assumptions for pricing, cost estimates and valuation of liabilities. Undertake research into selected areas of experience where future experience might be materially different from past experience. Identify the need for, and prepare papers on, the selection of relevant assumptions where a standard table is not appropriate, but the particular entity’s own experience is not fully credible. Communicate with other professional and industry groups on topics relating to experience studies and expected experience

    6. Potpourri $300 • Run Forrest Gump Run • Who is Mary Forrest, the chair of the Committee on Expected Experience?

    7. Structure • Group, Individual and Annuity sub committees report to CEE Chair • CEE Chair reports to Member Services Council

    8. Subcommittees Chairpersons • Annuity Lloyd Milani • Individual Life Scott McGaire • Group L&H Peter Muirhead

    9. Annuity Committee Members • Lloyd Milani Munich Re • Bob Howard Sun Life • Penny Teddiman Sun Life • Bonnie Forler Manulife • Beth Fitzmaurice London Life • Mario Robitaille Industrial Alliance • Michel Dubois Standard Life

    10. Individual Life Committee Members • Scott McGaire Manulife • Lloyd Milani Munich Re • Emile Elefteriadis Swiss Re • Marc-Andre Belzil RGA • Marc Tardif Deloitte & Touche • Beth Fitzmaurice London Life • Stephen Beal Sun Life • Bill Brath Equitable

    11. Group Subcommittee Members • Peter Muirhead • J.J. Daniel Couture • Karen Davies • Réjean Dion • John Earl • Firozali Hirji • Tony Iglesias • Rudra Maharajh • Stella-Ann Menard • Wayne Morris • Michel Rouette • Michel Simard • Pascal Verrette • Gary Weigel

    12. Individual Life

    13. Grim Reaper $100 • When received, these results will be of “dead” interest to actuaries • What are the 2001-2002 industry mortality results?

    14. Canadian Standard Ordinary Experience • 2001-2002: July/August 2005 • 2002-2003: September/October 2005 • 2003-2004: Request for Data Coming Soon!

    15. In Millions of Dollars. (Number of Claims in Brackets.)

    16. Grim Reaper $300 • This problem delayed action by a mock US Government agency. • What is the error that included non-underwritten lives in the CIA industry mortality study?

    17. Data Problem 1 • Non-underwritten lives included • Data limited to the ‘unknown underwriting’ classification • Error included in all past submissions • Will include comparisons showing effect of problem

    18. Data Problem 2 • One company did not record cause of death for a period of time on one system • “Unknown” and “Did not contribute” are combined in the reports • Cause of death percentages depressed, making comparisons to other years difficult

    19. Grim Reaper $400 • This distribution method saved 'experienced' actuaries a lot of time. • What is posting readable data on the CIA website?

    20. Distribution of Results • Regular Paper Package • CIA Website • Currently PDF format • Exploring EXCEL or text format • Exploring inclusion of more detailed results • CD

    21. Grim Reaper $500 • This table is not furniture, but will still be a boon if completed. • What is the next CIA Industry mortality table?

    22. New Industry Mortality Table • Last table was CIA8692 • Will be requesting proposals later this summer • Probably include 1998 to 2004 experience (CIA9804?)

    23. Issues for New Table: • Fluid Testing – unable to split • Length of Select Period • Preferred Underwriting • Too inconsistent • Report Smoker Distinct + Preferred Separately • Error in unknown underwriting data

    24. Annuity

    25. Grumpy Old Men $100 • Any minute now • When will next Individual Annuity mortality study be published?

    26. Due to be published by the end of summer • Study years • 1997 – 1998 • 1998 – 1999 • 1999 – 2000 • 2000 – 2001 • Same format as 1996-97 study

    27. Issues • Some data problems were identified and required re-submission by a company • A few companies submitted data late • One company unable to submit data

    28. Grumpy Old Men $300 • Marriage is the lesser of two evils • What does the annuity study show as being a significant factor in annuitant mortality?

    29. Grumpy Old Men $400 • Sex and numbers • What is having an annuitant mortality database available on the CIA website?

    30. Experience data to be made available in a database format • Summarized such that company experience can not be identified • Issues • Amount of data – technical problems • Should only the contributing companies receive this information?

    31. Data Format • Study year (13 years) • Sex • Issue Age • Duration • Single/Joint/Survivor • Tax types - RRSP/RPP/non-registered • Refund type • Amounts bands, 0-1k, 1k-5k, 5k-10k, 10k+ • Calculated Information • Exposure (number and amount) • Expected (number and amount) • Actual (number and amount)

    32. Grumpy Old Men $500 • The average year that your current co-op student was born. • What is 1983, also the year in which the current annuitant mortality table was developed?

    33. Proposed New Table • Based on Experience Years 1988 to 2001 • Male, Female • Single, Joint, Survivor • Attained ages 60 to 90 • Being developed by Bob Howard

    34. Process for Approval • Develop table and documentation in draft • Submit to membership for commentary