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Fertility Intentions in France and Russia

Fertility Intentions in France and Russia. Sergey Surkov IIPS Moscow - Russia. Laurence Charton Marc Bloch University Strasbourg - France. Introduction. In 2005, the Total Fertility Rate was 1.91 in France and 1.29 in Russia. G1: Total fertility Rate, France- Russia , 1960-2005.

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Fertility Intentions in France and Russia

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  1. Fertility Intentions in France and Russia Sergey Surkov IIPS Moscow - Russia Laurence Charton Marc Bloch University Strasbourg - France

  2. Introduction • In 2005, the Total Fertility Rate was 1.91 in France and 1.29 in Russia.

  3. G1: Total fertility Rate, France-Russia, 1960-2005

  4. Introduction • Effective control of Fertility • The desire for children is the main catalyst of the process of procreation

  5. Introduction • Analysis of the gap between France and Russia in the level of fertility by studying the intentions of fertility and “favorable” conditions for the birth of a first and a second child.

  6. Data and Methods 1st STEP

  7. Data and Methods 2nd STEP

  8. Data and Methods 3rd STEP

  9. G2: First rank cumulated fertility rate by sex and age groups, France and Russia

  10. G3: Second rank cumulated fertility rate by sex and age groups, France and Russia

  11. Parental conjugal status at 1st birth and conception according to parental status at 1st birth

  12. Parental conjugal status at 1st birth and conception according to parental status at 1st birth

  13. Parental conjugal status at 1st birth and conception according to parental status at 1st birth

  14. Parental conjugal status at 1st birth and conception according to parental status at 1st birth

  15. Parental conjugal status at 2nd birth and conception according to parental status at 2nd birth

  16. Parental conjugal status at 2nd birth and conception according to parental status at 2nd birth

  17. Parental conjugal status at 2nd birth and conception according to parental status at 2nd birth

  18. Parental conjugal status at 2nd birth and conception according to parental status at 2nd birth

  19. Fertility intentions for childless people by gender and age groups

  20. Fertility intentions for people having only one biological child by gender and age groups

  21. Fertility intentions for people having only two biological children by gender and age groups

  22. Independent variables for logistic regression of positive fertility intentions • Gender • Age groups • Parental divorce, size of siblings, nationality of respondent, and religion observance • Occupation status of respondent and occupation status of father and mother (ISCO-88) • Level of education, and intentions to resume studies • Partnership/marriage • Conception of Family Life • Gender of the first child and age of respondent at the moment of the first birth

  23. Gender and age groups Significance: * 5 (per 100), ** 1 (per 100) and *** 1 (per 1000)

  24. Parental divorce, size of siblings, nationality of respondent, and religion observance

  25. Occupation status of respondent

  26. Level of education and intentions to resume studies

  27. Partnership/marriage

  28. Conception of Family Life

  29. Gender of the first child and age of respondent at the moment of the first birth

  30. Semi-parametric (Cox) model for first and second birth • Gender • Age groups • Parental divorce, size of siblings, nationality of respondent, and religion observance • Occupation status of respondent’s father and mother (ISCO-88) • Level of education, and intentions to resume studies • Conjugal events • Gender of the first child and conjugal status at first birth

  31. Gender and age groups Significance: * 5 (per 100), ** 1 (per 100) and *** 1 (per 1000)

  32. Parental divorce, size of siblings, nationality of respondent, and religion observance

  33. Occupation status of respondent’s father

  34. Occupation status of respondent’s mother

  35. Studies and employment

  36. Two possible conjugal events

  37. Gender of the first child and conjugal status at first birth

  38. Conclusions • In France fertility intentions are generally higher than in Russia • Factors which have influence on fertility intentions of childless people and fertility intentions of respondents with one biological child are different • The most crucial factors for positive fertility intentions in both countries are conjugal status and number of unions, other factors are vary in France and Russia • The most serious factors linked to probability of the first and second birth in both countries are age groups as well as conjugal events

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