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Got Gas? EMIS 7300, SYSTEMS ANALYSIS METHODS FALL 2005 Project Idea
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  1. Got Gas?EMIS 7300, SYSTEMS ANALYSIS METHODSFALL 2005 Project Idea

  2. Course Project – Got Gas? • Scope – Determine the probability that the savings from a thermally efficient attic will pay for itself within 5 years. • Motivation – Natural gas costs are escalating. • Potential revenue source. • Conserve precious natural resources. • Save money and enhance home’s resale value. • Goal – To make energy efficiency attractive to consumer. • Description – Analyze sample data to make predictions with some degree of confidence. Offer a decision tool base upon tangible value to consumer. Score a win-win for the consumer and the environment.

  3. Course Project – Got Gas? • Product – A decision tool that determines the payback timeline for the consumer. • Benefits – Get to combine passion for conservation with passion for saving money. • Other – No relation to my job, although have considered as a side business. • Schedule – • Milestones – Complete project plan, data collected and analyzed, conclusions drawn, results presented. • Tasks – Write plan, collect data, charting, determine distribution, develop hypothesis, test hypothesis, draw conclusions, write report and presentation.

  4. EMIS 7300Project Idea F35 Schedule Change Requests Cycle Time

  5. SCRs and Job Relationship • Used at Lockheed Martin on the F35 Program by the Program Planning and Scheduling Department (PP&S) • SCRs are used on a daily basis by Schedule Integrators • Every time a schedule requires a update to baseline dates, WBS/CA/WP and/or is adding tasks, deleting tasks an SCR is required

  6. Scope of Project • Scope: • How long does it take an SCR to go through it’s lifecycle • How long does it take an SCR to get from one step in the cycle to another step in the cycle • SCR cycle: • Creation Date • Internal Coordination of Detail Change Data is Complete and Accurate on Form • Internal Signatures • External Signatures • PPS Lead Signatures • SCR Implemented into Database • SCR Implemented into MPP

  7. Approach • Determine the amount of time it takes to get from one step in the cycle to another step in the cycle through an SCR Log • Plot • Time of intervals vs. SCRs • Each stage of the cycle • Track by WBS • Eliminate outliers • Study Trends • Calculate population mean, variance, standard deviation and range • Create an ANOVA table, Confidence Intervals and regression analysis for data

  8. Benefit to Program • Provides an idea of the amount of time is being spent on SCRs • Allows management to investigate if there is a faster more productive method to help the process • Tracking by WBS can provide in-site on plans that may not be up to date and plans that may need more concentration

  9. Reliability of the JHMCS LRUs

  10. Reliability of the JHMCS LRUs • Product – The product to be delivered would be the number of spares the government would need to buy to keep all of the JHMCS equiped squadrons running despite unit failures for each LRU in the system. • The benefit would be to the government who seems to have a clear problem knowing how many units to buy and stock.

  11. Reliability of the JHMCS LRUs • The planned effort would require the acquisition of the MTBF (mean time between failures) of each of the LRUs and the classification of the failure (sometimes units “fail” but are found out later to not actually have been defective). • There are multiple units in the JHMCS system so each one would need to be analyized.

  12. Reliability in the JHMCS LRUs • The scope of this project would only to find out how many spares of each unit the government would need to keep in stock, not to improve the suppliers process since they probably wouldnt listen anyway.

  13. Flight Control Redundancy

  14. Flight Control Redundancy • In aircraft flight control systems, redundancy is relied upon to prevent the catastrophic event of losing an aircraft. Given the total number of catastrophic points of failure and the mean time between failures in a channel, determine the optimal number of redundant flight control channels required to prevent the loss of an aircraft.

  15. Flight Control Redundancy • In order to save aircraft weight, the total number shall not exceed 4. • The cost of each additional channel should be considered in the final decision of how many channels are necessary.

  16. Flight Control Redundancy • Determine the probability of a catastrophic failure occurring on a single channel during a 2 hour mission. • Determine the probability of a 2nd catastrophic failure occurring on a 2nd channel during the same 2 hour mission. • Determine the probability of a 3rd catastrophic failure occurring on a 3rd channel during the same 2 hour mission. • Determine the probability of a 4th catastrophic failure occurring on a 4th channel during the same 2 hour mission.

  17. Flight Control Redundancy • Compare the results and determine the number of channels necessary to achieve the optimal performance without sacrificing cost and weight.

  18. Advanced Braking System

  19. Advanced Braking System Scope – Advanced Technology Consulting is hired by BMW to perform an analysis of whether it should implement an upgrade to their advanced braking system that will prevent collisions over 45 mph. BMW has an advanced braking system which will be available in some of the 2008 models that prevents vehicles from getting into collisions by decreasing the speed of the vehicle when it senses other vehicles around it for collisions less than 45 mph. BMW wants Advanced Technology Consulting to determine if they need to implement such a device for higher speed collisions.

  20. Advanced Braking System Goal – To determine if this new technology should be implemented within the next several years or if it can wait. Currently, BMW has other technological advances they are researching but have only some portion of budget to develop these technologies. BMW wants Advanced Technology Consulting to research how many collisions that occur each year that are greater than 45 mph. If most collisions are less than 45 mph than the upgrade to the advanced braking system will wait.

  21. Advanced Braking System Description – Advanced Technology Consulting will need to get data on automobile crashes that occurred in the last seven years. Statistical analysis will be on studied on how many collisions occur each year that are less than 45 mph and how many collisions occur each year that are over 45 mph.

  22. Motivation for Changing Jobs

  23. Project Idea Title: Motivation For Changing Jobs (Within a Company) Idea: I have noticed a significant turnover in positions where I work. It is interesting to observe coworkers and the differences in motivation for changing job positions and their reasons for doing so. Getting an idea of what groups of employees move the most and their reasons could aid in development of programs to keep employees motivated, challenged, and satisfied with their jobs. Such programs could be used to find an employee’s strengths and skills by frequent rotation until a suitable job is found.

  24. Project Idea – cont. 1 Plan: Determine if experience level (time spent working for company) is independent of reasons for changing positions. Reasons for changing positions could be for increase in income, job satisfaction (not happy or needs a change), climbing the management latter, learning company operations on broad scale, etc. A sample group of 50 or more people could be surveyed on their reason for wanting to move. Contingency tables could be used for the initial survey or data capture and used to find or hypothesize expected future frequncies.

  25. Project Idea – cont. 2 Test the hypothesis that work experience relates to reasons for changing jobs. If they are not independent, use the data to formulate career development and satisfaction programs.

  26. Safety Hazard Analysis SYSTEMS ANALYSIS METHODSFALL 2005 Project Idea Submittal

  27. Course Project Idea – Safety Hazard Analysis DISCLAIMER: I do not, nor ever have, worked in a System Safety group. Therefore, some terminology I use in this presentation may not sound 100% technically correct to people who work in system safety. SCOPE – On my program I work with people that work in our system safety group. Among their tasks, they must classify every hazard identified on the aircraft. For example, they may have to determine the probability that a particular fuel line will leak. They then must determine what the probability will be that the leak could cause fire or explosion. These probabilities combined with other factors including environment, usage profile, etc. produce an overall safety hazard analysis. This hazard is then color-coded and probability of occurrence is shown.

  28. Course Project Idea – Safety Hazard Analysis Motivation – Although I’m sure statistics is used widely throughout the program; this is one area on my program that I have at least some limited statistics exposure. I would like to obtain exposure to a “real” use of statistics in my work environment. This additional exposure may help me better understand aspects of my work, my class or both. GOAL – My goal is to learn how apply statistics to my work.

  29. Course Project Idea – Safety Hazard Analysis APPROACH DESCRIPTION: My strategy would be to research safety hazard analysis to learn how to perform the analysis in generic terms. I would then create an analysis for a certain area of a product, i.e. car or plane by using realistic data. Objectives would be to identify all hazards and then determine the probability of occurrence for each. I would then roll that information into an overall system safety rating. The real world application will then likely dictate that some kind of cost analysis is performed to weigh aspects of safety hazard analysis vs. cost of unit vs. liabilities if the hazard actually occurs.

  30. Course Project Idea – Safety Hazard Analysis • PRODUCT – Safety Hazard Analysis • BENEFITS – I would like to obtain exposure to a “real” use of statistics in my work environment. This additional exposure may help me better understand aspects of my work, my class or both. • OTHER – Safety hazard analysis data has been used in my job in the past to help prove we meet certain safety requirements. I may able to learn enough to help provide insight in the how the statistical safety analysis is derived • SCHEDULE – My expectation is that me and my team would not spend more than 4-6 hours per week each week until the project is presented.

  31. OverTime Hoursand Nonconformance Documents

  32. Overtime Hours vs New Nonconformance Documents Are employees creating more or less nonconformance documents during overtime weeks. Is there a correlation between overtime and the amount of mistakes made. Is there a correlation between the creation of new nonconformance documents and overtime hours.

  33. Overtime and Nonconformance resolution • Are more nonconformance documents closed during high overtime weeks. • Is there a correlation between closure of nonconformance documents and overtime hours.

  34. Implementation • The implementation of this project will require mainframe programming in SAS and JCL to get the financial data regarding overtime by department. • SQl and PL/SQL will be required to get the nonconformance data from QADS.

  35. Resources and Risks • The only resources needed are man-hours and access to the databases containing the information. • There is a risk that the company will not allow us to use reveal the data, or that it will reduce the kind of data that is released as it relates to overtime hours.

  36. Probability of a Newly Hired Employee settling in at LMCO Project Title:

  37. Introduction… • What is the probability that a newly hired employee of LMCO will remain with the company for at least 3 years? • As most of the companies face various difficulties to keep their employees, what additional reinforcements can LMCO provide for its employees to encourage them to remain in LMCO longer? • Taking into account the benefits provided by LMCO, what is the probability that the employee will remain in LMCO for at least 3 years?

  38. Employee Perspective… • The need to belong in a reputed company • Work stability • Insurance and other benefits • Salary range • Location of the company • Flexible work hours • Etc…

  39. Company Perspective • Age • GPA • Personality of the individual • Goals of the individual • A pleasant work-environment • Competitive Salary • Etc…

  40. Give what is not needed or keep what will not help A STATISTICAL ASSESSMENT ON THE FINANCIAL STABILITY OF BRAND NEW CHURCHES OPENING IN BURLESON TEXAS

  41. SCOPE • COLLECT DATA ON BURLESON POPULATION WITH REGARDS TO FINANCIAL GIVING TO THE CHURCH • RELATE THE SAMPLE DATA TO THE CITY POPULATION • ANALYZE THE DATA TO STATISTICALLY DETERMINE FINANCIAL VIABILITY OF NEW CHURCH IN BURLESON BASED ON: • BURLESON RESIDENT GIVING PROFILE • NUMBER OF MEMBERS ATTENDING

  42. DATA COLLECTION • COLLECTED RANDOM SAMPLE OF BURLESON RESIDENTS • PROPOSE GAS STATION AS DATA COLLECTION SITE (PEOPLE AT ALL SOCIO-ECONOMIC LEVELS MUST BUY GAS – WILL HELP TO KEEP SELECTION RANDOM) • QUESTIONS (DATA) TO BE COLLECTED • ATTEND CHURCH • REGULARLY IS AT LEAST EVERY OTHER SUNDAY • NON REGULAR IS ANTHING LESS THAN ABOVE • FINANCIAL GIVING • $$ AMOUNT • HOUSEHOLD INCOME (OPTIONAL) • GOAL IS TO COLLECT 40 TO 50 DATA POINTS

  43. ANALYSIS • DETERMINE • SAMPLE MEAN, VARIANCE, STD. DEVIATION • RELATE TO CITY POPULATION • MEAN, VARIANCE STD DEVIATION • CONFIDENCE INTERVALS • ANALYZE NEW CHURCH • BASED ON INITIAL SMALL GROUP OR “SEED” CONGREGATION OF MATURE MEMBERS • BASED ON ALL NEW, YOUNG MEMBERS • BASED ON 20/80 MIX (MATURE / YOUNG) MEMBERS • COMPARE TO ACTUAL CHURCH CURRENTLY ATTENDING (IF POSSIBLE)

  44. ISSUES AND RISKS • PEOPLE MAY NOT PROVIDE ANY DATA • TWO VERY SENSITIVE ISSUES MONEY AND RELIGION • VERY HIGH RISK TO ASK FOR “PERSONAL INCOME” (THAT’S WHY THIS IS OPTIONAL) • DATA COLLECTED MAY BE SKEWED • PEOPLE WHO GIVE LITTLE WANT YOU TO THINK THEY GIVE MORE THAN THEY DO • PEOPLE WHO GIVE MUCH ARE USUALLY HUMBLE AND MAY PROVIDE A VALUE LOWER THAN REALITY. • WILL NEED PERMISSION FROM GAS STATION ATTENDANT – MAY NOT BE ABLE TO CONDUCT SURVEY. • OTHER LOCATIONS MAY INCREASE THE SAMPLE BIAS OF THE DATA TO SOME CLASS, GENDER, SOCIO-ECONOMIC GROUP OF PEOPLE.

  45. DirtyMULTIPLEX BUSWords A presentation which describes the F-16 specifications for how clean digital data transmissions between avionic subsystems need to be.

  46. DirtyMULTIPLEX BUSWords Introduction: When digital data is transmitted along the F-16 multiplex bus, information may get contaminated. For example, 1’s may be interpreted as 0’s and vice-versa. For the purposes of this project, we’ll call contaminated multiplex bus words “Dirty Words.” Determine what the various requirements are, and use different statistical methods to describe the tolerances of the specification.

  47. DirtyMULTIPLEX BUSWords • Step 1: Determine what the requirements are. May reference 16PP967, MIL-STD-1553B, or other documents (be sure they are unclassified and not proprietary). When is data discarded? • Step 2: Give an example of a sample data transmission that is dirty, one that is clean, and one that is right on the edge of the requirements. • Step 3: Use different statistics learned during this semester to describe the requirements based on the examples from Step 2. Describe the calculations/results and their meaning. For example, how could you apply concepts such as probabilities, distributions, confidence intervals, independence, multiple discrete random variables, type I/II errors for explaining the requirements?

  48. DirtyMULTIPLEX BUSWords • Summary: This project will help increase expertise by researching F-16 requirements while getting more practice with various statistical methods. The product will be informative and the project tasks should be definable/quantifiable. Deviations to the plan are possible, but the basic idea is to relate different statistics to real requirements.