Prison Forecast Advisory Committee

1. Prison Forecast Advisory Committee September 12th, 2019 Conference Room A

2. Agenda • Introductions • Recent Forecast tracking • DOC Budget Overview • Legislative Session Actions • Transition Leave Tracking • Discuss Forecast updates • Females by Crime Type • Males by Crime Type • Total Forecast Change • Next meeting dates

3. Recent Forecast Tracking Red line is the six month average (-34 beds)

4. DOC 2019-21 Leg Adopted Budget Overview Steve Robbins, Chief financial Officer

5. Significant Components • No undesignated reductions • First time in a decade • Substantial investment in infrastructure and systems • Includes XI-Q Bonds for Capital Renewal and General Fund maintenance/repairs • PC Lifecycle, SAS Licensing, & Fire Systems • Electronic Health Record • Additional policy investment • Hospital Watch security positions • Certified Medication Aid positions • Items of Note • Community Corrections Rate Study not adopted

6. April 2019 Men’s Forecast Impacts • Men • Additional 88 beds offline at OSP (I-dorm) • Accelerated beds offline: • TRCI 24 beds • SRCI 60 beds • Addt’l TRCI 24 beds • Starting in 2023, bring beds on-line was delayed: • SCCI and DRCI, most significant.

7. April 2019 WoMen’sForecast Impacts • Women • All emergency beds offline by February ‘21 • (Previously, was September ‘21)

8. OEA Forecastsimpact to DOC LAB • Net financial impact of the three OEA forecasts to DOC’s 2019-21 Legislatively Adopted Budget was ($17,517,231): • Prisons • ($3,868,754) in Mandated Caseload Savings • Community Corrections • ($13,648,477) in Mandated Caseload Savings • Impact of JUST the April 2019 OEA forecast: • ($2,755,636) Total • ($712,441) was Community Corrections

9. 2019 Session Actions . . . • SB 1008: Juvenile M11 • Potential small impact to prison forecast in outer years • SB 1013: Aggravated Murder • No expected change to prison forecast • HB 2328: Unauthorized Use of Motor Vehicle (UUV) • Estimates are included in forecast

11. STTL Impact and Forecast

12. STTL Bed Savings By Duration

13. Forecast Changes • Release profile of existing inmates as of September 1, 2019. • Intake forecasts updated for recent observations and trends. • Release profile for future intakes updated to reference release profiles of recent intakes (36 months for all cohorts).

14. Release Volatility

15. Female - Person Forecast Tracking Red line is the six month average nine beds)

16. Female-Person Intakes

17. Female – Person Forecast

18. Female – Property Forecast Tracking Red line is the six month average (-14 beds)

19. Female – Property Intakes

20. Female – Property Release Profile Avg LOS dropped from 19.2 months in previous cohort to 18.8 months in new cohort.

21. Female – Property Forecast

22. Female – Statutory Forecast Tracking Red line is the six month average (-15 beds)

23. Female – Statutory Intakes

24. Female – Statutory Forecast

25. Female Total Forecast

26. Male-Person Forecast Tracking Red line is the six month average 14 beds)

27. Male-Person Intakes

28. Male-Person Forecast

29. Male-Property Forecast Tracking Red line is the six month average (-55 beds)

30. Male-Property Intakes

31. Male – Property Release Profile Avg LOS dropped from 21.2 months in previous cohort to 20.6 in new cohort.

32. Male-Property Forecast

33. Male-Statutory Forecast Tracking Red line is the six month average 27 beds)

34. Male-Statutory Intakes

35. Male-Statutory Forecast

36. Male Total Inmate Forecast

37. All Inmates Forecast

38. Future Meeting Dates • Next meeting (if necessary) • September 26th, 1:45pm Teleconference • Potential dates for the April 1, 2020 forecast cycle: • March 12th, 1:45-3:45 Room TBA • March 26th, 1:45-3:45 Conference Call • All meeting date information available on the OEA website under “Corrections Forecast”

39. Questions • Contact • Michael Kennedy (503) 378-5732