challenges opportunities the future of nano bio technologies chris phoenix
Download
Skip this Video
Download Presentation
Nanotechnology From 1959 to 2029

Loading in 2 Seconds...

play fullscreen
1 / 27

Nanotechnology From 1959 to 2029 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 386 Views
  • Uploaded on

Challenges & Opportunities: The Future of Nano & Bio Technologies Chris Phoenix Nanotechnology From 1959 to 2029 Overview Important time periods Feynman to mid-80's 1986 to 2007 2008 to 2022 2022 to 2029 Important technologies Nanoscale technologies Molecular manufacturing

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about 'Nanotechnology From 1959 to 2029' - emily


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
challenges opportunities the future of nano bio technologies chris phoenix
Challenges & Opportunities:

The Future of Nano & Bio Technologies

Chris Phoenix

Nanotechnology From 1959 to 2029
overview
Overview

Important time periods

  • Feynman to mid-80's
  • 1986 to 2007
  • 2008 to 2022
  • 2022 to 2029

Important technologies

  • Nanoscale technologies
  • Molecular manufacturing
  • Other significant technologies
before nanotechnology
Before “Nanotechnology”
  • Richard Feynman, 1959:

“There's Plenty of Room at the Bottom”

  • Colloids
  • Electron microscopes
  • Von Neumann
  • Early 80's: Drexler publishes peer-reviewed articles
mid 1980 s nanotechnology b egins
Mid 1980's: Nanotechnology Begins
  • Drexler publishes Engines of Creation
  • Foresight Institute founded
  • “Grey goo” worries begin
  • “Universal assembler,” “disassembler”
  • “Nanotechnology”
early molecular manufacturing
Early Molecular Manufacturing
  • Based on biology
    • Small manufacturing systems
    • Organic-like chemistry
  • High performance
  • Large potential impact
  • Attracted transhumanists, cryonicists, etc.
molecular manufacturing s power
Molecular Manufacturing's Power

Scaling laws

Low friction and wear

General-purpose manufacturing

Highly reliable operation

High material strength

Inexpensive material (carbon)

skepticism
Skepticism
  • How can a machine reproduce?
  • Won't quantum uncertainty...?
  • How can you power it?
  • How can you control it?
  • Chemistry is too unreliable!
nanomedicine
Nanomedicine
  • Build with molecules --> meet cells at their own level.
  • Small and numerous --> whole-body interventions
  • Respirocytes, etc.
  • 1999: Freitas --> Nanomedicine I
  • 1996-2002: Vasculoid
vasculoid replace blood
Vasculoid: Replace Blood
  • 150 trillion plates lining blood vessels
  • 166 T boxes transport molecules and cells inside hollow tube
  • Avoid bleeding, poisons, metastasized cancer, etc.
  • Extremely aggressive but appears possible
  • 111 pages long, 587 references
1990 s concepts mature
1990's: Concepts Mature
  • Drexler publishes Nanosystems
    • Lots of physics analysis
    • Diamondoid
    • Nanofactories
    • Largely ignored outside community
  • Other “nanotechnology”
  • Skepticism (e.g. SciAm)
physics of nanosystems
Physics of Nanosystems
  • Scaling Laws
    • Power density ~ L^-1
    • Component density ~ L^-3
    • Operation frequency ~ L^-1
    • Relative throughput ~ L^-4
  • Atom-scale Physics
    • Superlubricity
    • Discrete dimensions
    • Quantum phenomena
2000 nanotech goes mainstream
2000: Nanotech Goes Mainstream
  • National Nanotechnology Initiative
    • $1B per year for nanotech
    • Nanotech defined as anything small and interesting
  • “Why The Future Doesn't Need Us”
    • Stated that one “oops” could destroy the world with grey goo
  • Strong incentive to marginalize molecular manufacturing
nanoscale technologies
Nanoscale Technologies

Build small objects and structures

Use big machines

Limited product range

Diverse but limited applications

Lots of cool physics tricks

Not just one technology; not even a family

Materials, not products

2000 2007
2000-2007
  • Nanoscale tech advances in many directions
  • Nanoparticle concerns
  • CRN founded Dec. 2002
  • Drexler/Smalley debate
  • NMAB report
  • Opposition to MM slowly fades
nanoscale tech in the stone age
Nanoscale tech in the stone age
  • Unlock natural properties
  • Access the small stuff indirectly
  • Very sophisticated techniques needed
  • Useful and complex products
  • Limited flexibility
  • Ask a flint knapper to make a gear...

(Ask a flint knapper what good a gear is...)

2000 2007 continued
2000-2007 (continued)
  • Nanofactory architecture matures
  • Foresight/Battelle Productive Nanosystems Roadmap
  • NanoRex
  • Zyvex
  • Nanofactory Collaboration
  • Ideas Factory
nanofactory architecture
Nanofactory Architecture
  • “Design of a Primitive Nanofactory”
    • Chris Phoenix, Oct. 2003, JETpress
    • Demonstrate that nanofactories could be bootstrapped quickly
    • Physical architecture, power, redundancy, product specification and capabilities, bootstrapping time, etc., etc.
    • 73 pages
burch drexler nanofactory
Burch/Drexler Nanofactory
  • “Productive Nanosystems: From Molecules To Superproducts”
  • Video released July 2005
  • Introduced planar assembly
  • Obsoleted about ¼ of Primitive Nanofactory paper
niac contract
NIAC Contract
  • With Tee Toth-Fejel
  • Developed bootstrapping concepts
  • Fleshed out planar-assembly nanofactory architecture
  • Showed one of many ways to develop exponential manufacturing
recent tech advances
Recent tech advances
  • Oyabu: Pick and place silicon atoms
  • Schafmeister: rigid biopolymer
  • Rothemund: DNA staples
  • Freitas, Merkle, Drexler, Allis: mechanosynthesis studies
  • Seeman: DNA building DNA
2008 2015
2008-2015
  • Nanoscale tech continues
    • Better computers
    • Medicine(!)
    • Materials
    • Sensors
  • Molecular manufacturing continues
    • More scanning probe chemistry
    • Better designs
    • More mainstream acceptance
2016 2022
2016-2022
  • Diamond fabrication by SPM
  • Push for a nanofactory (may happen earlier)
  • Nanoscale science matures
  • Nanoscale tech keeps growing, needs better manufacturing
  • Recognition of MM implications??
  • Nanofactory??
2023 2029
2023-2029

General-purpose nanotech manufacturing accelerates other technologies

  • Medicine
  • Brain/machine interface
  • Spaceflight
  • Computers/networks/sensors
  • Planet-scale engineering(?)
bootstrapping options
Bootstrapping Options
  • Direct diamond synthesis (Freitas)
  • Biopolymer machines (Drexler)
  • Molecular building blocks (Toth-Fejel)
  • Top-down manufacturing (Hall)
  • Other covalent solids
development cost of mm
Development Cost of MM

In 1980's, tens or hundreds of $B

In 1990's, a few $B

In 2000's, several hundred $M

In 2010's, tens of $M

In 2020's, a few $M

(This is for a ten-year program)

Would have been worth it in 1980!

conclusion
Conclusion
  • Molecular manufacturing will be developed soon
  • This is where nanotechnology is going
  • It will be more powerful, and more impactful, than we can easily imagine
ad