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Exp 2

Largest response:. Exp 1. Exp 3. Exp 2. NCEP vs AGCM = 0.4581 NCEP vs CGCM = 0.3775. AGCM better able to capture trend Here, AGCM (in forecast mode) is therefore a better representation of reality Should thus give better predictions of rainfall over South Africa than CGCM.

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Exp 2

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  1. Largest response: Exp 1 Exp 3 Exp 2

  2. NCEP vs AGCM = 0.4581 NCEP vs CGCM = 0.3775 • AGCM better able to capture trend • Here, AGCM (in forecast mode) is therefore a better representation of reality • Should thus give better predictions of rainfall over South Africa than CGCM

  3. Model output statistics (MOS) applied to • AGCM ensemble mean SLP • CGCM ensemble mean SLP • Verification • 5-year-out cross-validation • Spearman rank correlation AGCM-MOSslp – CGCM-MOSslp Only about 5% of the stations show local significant correlation differences at the 95% level Forecast skill not significantly different irrespective of the use of “correct” or “incorrect” SLP forecasts

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