Health and demography the achilles heel of post socialist development in europe
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Health and Demography: The Achilles’ Heel of Post-Socialist Development in Europe. Nicholas Eberstadt Henry Wendt Chair in Political Economy American Enterprise Institute (AEI) eberstadt@aei.org “Advancing Economic Growth: Investing In Health” Chatham House, London June 22-23, 2005.

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Health and demography the achilles heel of post socialist development in europe

Health and Demography: The Achilles’ Heel of Post-Socialist Development in Europe

Nicholas Eberstadt

Henry Wendt Chair in Political Economy

American Enterprise Institute (AEI)

eberstadt@aei.org

“Advancing Economic Growth:

Investing In Health”

Chatham House, London

June 22-23, 2005


Health and demography limit the development possibilities for post socialist europe today
Health and Demography Limit The Development Possibilities for Post-Socialist Europe Today:

  • Inter-Linked Development-Impeding Characteristics Include:

  • Pervasive Population Decline (Driven by Sharp Imbalance

    between Births and Deaths)

  • Fertility Collapse (Portending “Youth Drought” and Rapid Ageing)

  • Extreme and Rapid Population Ageing at Low Levels of GDP/Capita

  • Serious and Enduring Health Problems, Concentrated in Economically Active Age Groups—Problems Resistant to Rapid Melioration


Post socialist europe s demography when abnormal becomes the norm
Post-Socialist Europe’s Demography:When “Abnormal” Becomes The Norm

  • Post-Socialist Europe’s Health and Demographic Challenges are without Historical Precedent

  • They characterize the Whole Region (not just some States)

  • These Dem/Health Problems are “Deeply Embedded”:

    i.e., Policy Interventions to address them may result in unusually Slow and Limited Gains


Health and demography the achilles heel of post socialist development in europe

Female

Source: UN World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision Population Database


Health and demography the achilles heel of post socialist development in europe

Source: UN World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision Population Database, (medium variant projection)

NOTE: UNDP’s definition of “Eastern Europe” excludes the Baltic countries, Albania, and most of former Yugoslavia


Population profiles post socialist europe vs western europe

Population Profiles, Population Database, (medium variant projection)Post-Socialist Europe vs. Western Europe:

Fundamental Differences Today


Basic demographic indicators for europe by region unpd projections
Basic Demographic Indicators For Europe Population Database, (medium variant projection)By Region (UNPD Projections)

W.Europe Russia E.Europe

(w/o Russia)

Population (million)

2005 431 145 143

Pop Growth %/yr

2000/2005 0.33 -0.46 -0.52

Net Reproduction Rate

2000/2005 0.72 0.62 0.58

Life Expectancy

2000/2005 (Years) 77.6 65.4 70.5

NOTE: UNDP’s definition of “Eastern Europe” excludes the Baltic countries, Albania, and most of former Yugoslavia


Health and demography the achilles heel of post socialist development in europe

Source: Calculated from Recent Demographic Developments in Europe, Council of Europe: Belgium, January 2005.


Projected population change 2000 2025 russia rest of eastern europe and west europe
Projected Population Change, 2000-2025: Europe, Council of Europe: Belgium, January 2005.Russia, Rest of Eastern Europe, and West. Europe

Russia Rest E.Eur. W.Eur

Total Population -11.8% -12.7% + 3.8%

Population 15-64 -15.4% -15.1% - 2.3%

(Population 15-24) (-36.3%) (-45.3%) (-12.7%)

Population 65+ +25.7% +30.4% +44.0%

Source: UN Population Division, World Population Prospects, 2004 Revisions, www.unpopulation.org.

NOTE: UNDP’s definition of “Eastern Europe” excludes the Baltic countries, Albania, and most of former Yugoslavia


Extreme sub replacement fertility

Extreme Sub-Replacement Fertility: Europe, Council of Europe: Belgium, January 2005.

Status and Future Implications

For Post-Socialist Europe


Total fertility rate u s by state russia and europe 2000
Total Fertility Rate: Europe, Council of Europe: Belgium, January 2005.U.S. (by state), Russia, and Europe, 2000

Notes: U.S. TFR includes the 50 and the District of Columbia; blue bars indicate TFRs for European countries outside of the EU-15.

Sources: Institut National d'etudes demographiques, "Population en chiffres," available at http://www.ined.fr/population-en-chiffres/pays-developpes/index.html (accessed August 4, 2004); National Vital Statistics Report Vol 52, No. 19 (May 10, 2004).



Health and demography the achilles heel of post socialist development in europe

Source: UN World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision Prospects: The 2004 Revision.

NOTE: UNDP’s definition of “Eastern Europe” excludes the Baltic countries, Albania, and most of former Yugoslavia


Rapid population ageing for low income populations

Rapid Population Ageing for Low-Income Populations: Prospects: The 2004 Revision.

Post-Socialist Europe’s Unstoppable Wave


Health and demography the achilles heel of post socialist development in europe
Changes in 65+ Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision.As Percentage of Total Population: 2000 vs. 2025(US Census Bureau Projections)

20002025Difference

Western Europe 16.3 22.7 + 6.4

Bulgaria 16.6 23.2 + 6.6

Czech Republic 13.8 22.9 + 9.1

Estonia 15.0 22.7 + 7.7

Hungary 14.6 21.3 + 6.7

Latvia 14.7 20.7 + 6.0

Lithuania 13.7 21.0 + 7.3

Poland 12.3 21.6 + 9.3

Romania 13.3 19.0 + 5.7

Russian Federation 12.5 19.8 + 7.3

Slovakia 11.4 19.3 + 7.9

Ukraine 14.1 20.6 + 6.5


Health and demography the achilles heel of post socialist development in europe
Percentage of the Population Aged 65+ vs. GDP per Capita: Prospects: The 2004 Revision.Developed Countries 1950-2000 vs. Emerging Economies 2000


Health and demography the achilles heel of post socialist development in europe

Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2004 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp.

Maddison, Angus. The World Economy: Historical Statistics. (Development Centre Studies, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development: Paris, 2003), pp. 110-111.


Premature mortality and allied health problems

Premature Mortality and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2004 Revision, and Allied Health Problems:

An Anchor on Economic Development

in Post-Socialist Europe


Health and demography the achilles heel of post socialist development in europe

Source: World Development Indicators, 2003 and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2004 Revision,


Health and demography the achilles heel of post socialist development in europe

Estimated Changes in Life Expectancy at Birth in Europe, by Region: 1960/65 to 2000/2005 (years)

                                         Overall LE        Male LE

Western Europe                +7.3                   +6.8

Eastern Europe

(without Russia)                +1.1                    -0.8

Russian Federation           -2.5                    -4.2

Note: UN definition of "Eastern Europe" excludes the Baltic countries, Albania, and most of the former Yugoslavia. 

Source: Derived from UN Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, available electronically at <http:www.unpopulation.org>.


Health and demography the achilles heel of post socialist development in europe

Sources: The Demographic Yearbook of Russia: 1993 (State Committee of the Russian Federation on Statistics, Moscow, 1993),

Table 2.5; The Demographic Yearbook of Russia: 2004 (State Committee of the Russian Federation on Statistics, Moscow, 2004),

Table 2.6; Human Mortality Database, available online at www.mortality.org, accessed January 20, 2005.


Health and demography the achilles heel of post socialist development in europe

Sources: The Demographic Yearbook of Russia: 1993 (State Committee of the Russian Federation on Statistics, Moscow, 1993),

Table 2.5; The Demographic Yearbook of Russia: 2004 (State Committee of the Russian Federation on Statistics, Moscow, 2004),

Table 2.6; Human Mortality Database, available online at www.mortality.org, accessed January 20, 2005.


Health and demography the achilles heel of post socialist development in europe

Source:www.mortality.org Committee of the Russian Federation on Statistics, Moscow, 1993),


Health and demography the achilles heel of post socialist development in europe

Source: www.mortality.org Committee of the Russian Federation on Statistics, Moscow, 1993),


Changes in life expectancy at age 30 1970 vs 2000 male plus female years
Changes in Life Expectancy at Age 30: Committee of the Russian Federation on Statistics, Moscow, 1993), 1970 vs. 2000, Male plus Female (Years)

Italy +5.59

East Germany* +4.62

Czech Republic +3.77

Lithuania -0.21

Latvia -0.87

Hungary* -1.01

Bulgaria -1.02

Russian Federation* -3.06

Source: www.mortality.org; *=1970-1999


Health and demography the achilles heel of post socialist development in europe

Note: Calculations based upon current "life tables" for the year 2000. "Europe" includes countries outside of the EU-15.

Source: World Health Organization Life Tables, 2000, available at http://www3.who.int/whosis/life_tables/life_tables.cfm?path=evidence,life_tables&language=english (accessed on September 20, 2004).


Health and demography the achilles heel of post socialist development in europe

Source:www.mortality.org year 2000. "Europe" includes countries outside of the EU-15.


Deaths from diseases of the circulatory system 25 64 years russia and selected european countries
Deaths from diseases of the circulatory system, 25-64 years: year 2000. "Europe" includes countries outside of the EU-15.Russia and Selected European Countries

Post-communist countries

Countries which have never been communist

Source: Atlas of Health in Europe, The World Heath Organization at www. Euro.who.int/document/E79876.pdf


Health and demography the achilles heel of post socialist development in europe
Deaths from external causes of injury and poisoning, 0-64 years: Russia and Selected European Countries

Post-communist countries

Countries which have never been communist

Source: Atlas of Health in Europe, The World Heath Organization at www. Euro.who.int/document/E79876.pdf


Health and demography the achilles heel of post socialist development in europe

Source: years:www.mortality.org, accessed on 11 April 2005


Health and demography the achilles heel of post socialist development in europe

Source: years:www.mortality.org, accessed on 11 April 2005