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Closing the Loop: Modeling the coho salmon life cycle in the context of habitat, climate, and management. Pete Lawson, Libby Logerwell, Nate Mantua, Bob Francis, and Vera Agostini. Queets River. O. D. O. O. D. OCN Coho. O. O. D. O. D. OCN Oregon Coastal Natural Coho salmon

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slide1
Closing the Loop: Modeling the coho salmon life cycle in the context of habitat, climate, and management

Pete Lawson, Libby Logerwell, Nate Mantua,

Bob Francis, and Vera Agostini

slide2

Queets River

O

D

O

O

D

OCN Coho

O

O

D

O

D

  • OCN
  • Oregon Coastal Natural
  • Coho salmon
  • Aggregate of 13 basins
  • Rain-fed streams
  • Threatened status (on and off)

D Air Temperature Data

O Streamflow Data

slide3

The OCN Problem:

OCN Recruits (t+1) and Spawners (t-2)

slide5

OCN smolts and smolts/spawner reconstructed from

OPIH- and GAM-estimated marine survivals. 1992

estimate omitted from analysis.

environmental data sets freshwater
Environmentaldata sets -- freshwater
  • 1969-1999 smolt year
  • Stream Flow
    • From 6 USGS gauging stations
      • Monthly mean flow
      • Standardized at each station, then averaged
  • Air Temperature
    • From 3 WRCC locations
      • Annual mean air temperature
      • Standardized at each station, then averaged
slide8

Partial plots for OCN smolts

Annual Temperature

Fall Transitionv

Fall Transition

Winter Flow (t1)

Spring Flow (t1)

slide11

So why should we believe this?

Because I repeated the analysis with a

completely independent data set

from the Queets River, Washington.

  • One basin
  • Glacier-fed
  • 1981-2000 smolt years
  • Smolts and spawners measured directly
  • No dams
  • Flow data from USGS -- one station
  • Air temperature data from WRCC -- one station
slide12

Results for Queets Smolts

Winter Flow (t1)

Annual Temperature

Smolts

Year

slide14

The bottom line:Marine and freshwater environmental variables are correlated so that good (poor) marine survival is associated with good (poor) freshwater production.

Marine

Freshwater

slide15

Spawners

Early

*

Late

*

fecundity

OO

OO

++

++

Eggs

Metapopulation

Dynamics

Population

Dynamics

Harvest

Management

Freshwater

Habitat

Marine Survival

Climate Patterns

slide16

<= 35%

= 200 thousand

slide17

Local Extinction Probabilities with

Zero Harvest and Two Harvest Policies

slide18

DON’T PANIC!

The model is definitive, reality may vary.

nine questions to validate models
Nine Questions to Validate Models

1. Is the structure adequate to serve the purposes for which it will be used?

2. What characteristics of the simulated system have been left out or simplified?

3. What might the effects be?

4. How do model structure and behavior compare to similar models?

5. How are uncertainty and error incorporated into the analysis, and how do the results depend on uncertainties and assumptions?

nine questions to validate models cont d
Nine Questions to Validate Models (cont'd)

6. Are the parameter definitions and ranges justifiable?

7. Does the model produce expected behaviors for ordinary, as well as extraordinary cases-i.e., have the authors defined the range over which the model is valid, and the circumstances under which the model is questionable or invalid?

8. Does the model respond appropriately and usefully to simulated policies?

9. How does the analysis relate to the problem as it is defined, and the conclusions drawn?

slide23
Peter LawsonNMFS/NWFSC2030 SE Marine Science DriveNewport, OR 97365541-867-0430peter.w.lawson@noaa.gov