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Forest Risk Assessment Model Calculation for Maximum Mortality Prediction

Learn how to calculate forest risk using criteria weights based on distance from pest range, host basal area, and host QMD. Understand how to determine total risk and predict forest loss percentage.

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Forest Risk Assessment Model Calculation for Maximum Mortality Prediction

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  1. Example for How Risk is Calculated for a Pixel Maximum Mortality for Model = 70% Model Criterion Weight Distance from Pest Range 0.5 Host Basal Area 0.3 Host QMD (Avg DBH) 0.2 Risk 10 0 Risk 10 0 Risk 10 0 8 6 4 Host Basal Area Distance from Pest Host QMD Total Risk = (0.5 x 4) + (0.3 x 6) + (0.2 x 8) = 2.0 + 1.8 + 1.6 = 5.4 = 5 % Host Loss = Total Risk/10 x Maximum Mortality for Model = 5/10 x 70% = 35% % Total Forest Loss = % Host Loss x Host BA/Total Forest BA

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