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Internet Futures

Internet Futures. My Aim:. share some thoughts about the Internet and its future. +. think about some of the major factors that will shape our future. Why?. The mainstream telecommunications industry has a rich history. Why?.

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Internet Futures

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  1. Internet Futures

  2. My Aim: share some thoughts about the Internet and its future + think about some of the major factors that will shape our future

  3. Why? The mainstream telecommunications industry has a rich history

  4. Why? The mainstream telecommunications industry has a rich history …of making very poor technology guesses

  5. Why? The mainstream telecommunications industry has a rich history …of making very poor technology guesses and regularly being taken by surprise!

  6. Can the Internet do abetter job of matching technology to user needs?

  7. One approach: • Observethe situation and what’s happening

  8. One approach: • Observethe situation and what’s happening • Understandwhere this may lead us and what options may be presented on the way

  9. One approach: • Observe the situation and what’s happening • Believe what we see • Understand where this may lead us and what options may be presented on the way

  10. What’s Happening Today:User Preferences and the Market for Services

  11. What’s Happening Today:User Preferences and the Market for Services From radio to tv to ?

  12. What’s Happening Today:User Preferences and the Market for Services From radio to tv to ?

  13. What’s Happening Today:User Preferences and the Market for Services From radio to tv to ? passive

  14. What’s Happening Today:User Preferences and the Market for Services From telephony to chat to mashups to p2p to ? From radio to tv to ? passive

  15. Service Profile Choices

  16. Service Profile Choices Open collaboration framework Bundled services

  17. open delivery infrastructure Service / content distribution networks vs Service Profile Choices Open collaboration framework Bundled services

  18. open delivery infrastructure Service / content distribution networks vs Service Profile Choices Open collaboration framework Bundled services role specialization Vertical integration

  19. open delivery infrastructure Service / content distribution networks vs Service Profile Choices Open collaboration framework Bundled services role specialization Vertical integration user produced externally produced vs

  20. open delivery infrastructure Service / content distribution networks vs Service Profile Choices Open collaboration framework Bundled services role specialization Vertical integration user produced externally produced Passive users Active user networks vs

  21. What’s Happening Today:User Preferences and the Market for Services From telephony to chat to mashups to p2p to ? From radio to tv to ? passive Today’s users have already clearly demonstrated their preference for an active service profile based on sharing

  22. What’s Happening Today:Demand for Bandwidth What mass market customers want for $25 per month ! Kb Modem tails Mb Muxed Trunks 1995

  23. What’s Happening Today:Demand for Bandwidth What mass market customers want for $25 per month ! Mb DSL tails Gb Lamda Trunks Kb Modem tails Mb Muxed Trunks 1995 2005

  24. What’s Happening Today:Demand for Bandwidth What mass market customers want for $25 per month ! fibre tails Bonded Tb Trunks? Gb What form of infrastructure investment profile can deliver this outcome in 7 years time? Mb DSL tails Gb Lamda Trunks Kb Modem tails Mb Muxed Trunks 1995 2005 2015

  25. What’s Happening Today:Declining Revenue Profile for incumbent telcos

  26. What’s Happening Today:Declining Revenue Profile for incumbent telcos How to fill the gap of the Internet’s revenue leak?

  27. ?

  28. Moore’s Law technology pace rapid infill

  29. Moore’s Law technology pace rapid infill

  30. technology push and network architecture end user capability

  31. “Over the top” applications

  32. “Over the top” applications Content production is a commodity application that users sustain through sharing, rather than a valuable service that is produced externally through dedicated specialized production channels

  33. and

  34. QoS IMS Network VPNs and

  35. QoS IMS Network VPNs and

  36. QoS IMS Network VPNs and Web 2.0 enabled user generated content flickr facebook youtube doppler wikipedia google

  37. tensions at the lower levels of the technology stack Users simply want applications to work IPv4 IPv6 ? IPv4 NAT land So who really wants a simple end-to-end IP network? And who is willing to pay For it? Network operators often base their business model on driving complexity into the network

  38. fuelling the usage growth fire usage = scaling

  39. fuelling the usage growth fire Please send heaps more…. bandwidth switching fibre routes routing addressing delivering storage silicon density power heat dissipation memory speed storage efficiency usage = scaling

  40. ? is challenging when today’s businesses appear to have radically different ideas of what this business is all about

  41. ? is challenging when today’s businesses appear to have radically different ideas of what this business is all about and very few of these ideas will be right!

  42. ? is challenging when today’s businesses appear to have radically different ideas of what this business is all about and very few of these ideas will be right! And some of these ideas appear to be just plain wrong even now!

  43. ? is challenging when today’s businesses appear to have radically different ideas of what this business is all about and very few of these ideas will be right! And some of these ideas appear to be just plain wrong!

  44. ? seamless networking triple play

  45. ? seamless networking triple play

  46. ? seamless networking triple play

  47. ? seamless networking triple play

  48. What are we learning? ? Packet pushing is a commodity utility activity Low margins Low barriers to entry No product differentiation Deregulation and competition Valued services are overlays to the network

  49. What are we learning? ? Packet pushing is a commodity utility activity Low margins Low barriers to entry No product differentiation Deregulation and competition Valued services are overlays to the network Traditional revenue streams are vaporizing Wired telephony Business data products Local Access monopolies Mobile telephony

  50. What are we learning? ? Packet pushing is a commodity utility activity Low margins Low barriers to entry No product differentiation Deregulation and competition Valued services are overlays to the network Traditional revenue streams are vaporizing Wired telephony Business data products Local Access monopolies Mobile telephony Investors are still nervous about telcos Cost of capital is high Consumers are fleeing legacy telcos in the face of price gouging Shareholder returns need to stay high No residual expertise left in-house

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