1. Overview of KMAs Operational LRF Services 2011. 12. 02 Korea Meteorological Administration

2. Long-range Forecast at KMA

3. x x x Forecast period X Issue date Forecast Period 1-month forecast 3-month forecast Seasonal outlook F 10 20 M 10 20 A 10 20 M 10 20 J 10 20 J 10 20 A 10 20 S

4. The Current Long-Range Forecast System

5. GDAPS Configuration

6. ENSO Forecast Statistical method Statistical method KMA El-Nino Model Statistical method Ensemble Process Based on Cross-validation - Calculate Hindcast Skill of 4 models at each grid point    - Exclude models which Hindcast Skill is below than certain threshold.   - Simple Ensemble Mean for the qualified models   - Superior to other Ensemble Technique (Multiple Regression, Best Model)

7. Future Plan Joint Seasonal Forecasting system by KMA and Met Office  Based on GloSea5(N216L85+O1/4L75) or GloSea4(N96L85+O1L75) - Jan. ~ Jun. 2012: Set up GloSea5 at CRAY(KMA) - Jun. 2012: Semi-operational run. - Jun. 2013: Operation of the new system!  Probabilistic forecasts for both sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasts - Tsfc, Precip - considering Tmin and Tmax (extreme events ?)