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Measuring Impact of a Cause

Measuring Impact of a Cause. Farrokh Alemi Ph.D. Definition. Ratio Prevalence of event Universe of possibilities. Daily Probability of Exercise. Daily Probability of Exercise. Daily Probability of Exercise. Probability Scale. Axioms of Probability. Is a positive number between 0 and 1

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Measuring Impact of a Cause

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  1. Measuring Impact of a Cause Farrokh Alemi Ph.D.

  2. Definition • Ratio • Prevalence of event • Universe of possibilities

  3. Daily Probability of Exercise

  4. Daily Probability of Exercise

  5. Daily Probability of Exercise

  6. Probability Scale

  7. Axioms of Probability • Is a positive number between 0 and 1 • The sum of the probabilities is 1 • Probability of two exclusive events is sum of the probability of each

  8. Venn Diagram

  9. Venn Diagram

  10. Probability of Exercise • Days of exercise divided by total days • Success divided by planned

  11. Combination of Events

  12. Combination of Events + -

  13. Probability of both events occurring together

  14. Probability of exercise in evening or morning A=morning exercise B=evening exercise + -

  15. Impact of a Cause • P(Effect|Cause)

  16. Impact of a Cause • P(Effect | Cause) • P(B | A)

  17. Impact of a Cause • P(Effect | Cause) • P(B | A)

  18. Impact of a Cause

  19. Impact of a Cause

  20. Numerical Example

  21. Numerical Example

  22. Numerical Example

  23. Calculation from Diary data

  24. Calculation from Diary data

  25. Calculation from Diary data 9 days

  26. Calculation from Diary data 9 days 5 days

  27. Calculation from Diary data 9 days 5 days

  28. Take Home Lesson Conditional Probability Measured Impact of a Cause

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