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Michael Carliner

Housing Outlook For D.C. June 1, 2006. Michael Carliner. Real GDP Growth. Percent change (Q/Q). Employment Changes. (000s, Month-to-Month, thru April ‘05). Payroll Employment Growth. Percent change (Y/Y). Consumer Price Inflation. ( Y/Y % Change). CPI-All Items. Core PCE Index.

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Michael Carliner

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  1. Housing Outlook For D.C. June 1, 2006 Michael Carliner

  2. Real GDP Growth Percent change (Q/Q)

  3. Employment Changes (000s, Month-to-Month, thru April ‘05)

  4. Payroll Employment Growth Percent change (Y/Y)

  5. Consumer Price Inflation (Y/Y % Change) CPI-All Items Core PCE Index

  6. Fed Funds Rate Percent Nominal Avg Real Rate 1988-2005 Real Real rate = nominal minus Y/Y change in NIPA price index for PCE excl food and energy

  7. Mortgage Interest Rates Percent Fixed-Rate Mortgages Adjustable-Rate Mortgages

  8. Single-Family Housing Starts (Thousands of units, Seasonally Adjusted)

  9. NAHB Housing Market Indexand Single-family Starts

  10. Multifamily Housing Starts

  11. Multifamily Housing Starts (Thousands of units, Seasonally Adjusted)

  12. Rental Vacancy Ratesby Units in Structure Percent 5 Or More Single-family Census Bureau Housing Vacancy Survey

  13. Condo Share of Multifamily Starts Percent

  14. MF For-sale Share

  15. Multifamily Completions Thousands Sources: Census Bureau, HUD LIHTC Database, NAHB estimates

  16. Figure A8 CPI Rent vs All Items

  17. 2005: Chg in Employment v Starts/Pop

  18. 2005: Chg in Population v Starts/Pop

  19. DC Housing Starts

  20. DC Starts as Share of DC Metro Percent

  21. Growth in Jobs Percent

  22. Growth in Population Percent

  23. Unemployment Rate

  24. Starts per 1,000 Population

  25. Rental Vacancy Rate

  26. Change in CPI for Rents

  27. Units per 5+ Building

  28. OFHEO House Price Index

  29. Counties by Density

  30. Population Change by County Population per Square Mile

  31. Dense Counties’ Share of MF Permits

  32. PPI: New Residential Inputs Y/Y % Change SF MF

  33. Framing Lumber Composite Prices ($ Price/MBF) Source: Random Lengths

  34. Gypsum Products (Y/Y %) ( 1984 = 100)

  35. Cement (Y/Y %) ( 1984 = 100)

  36. Copper Components and Products 1/02 =100 Ore Scrap Mill shapes Wire/cable Bureau of Labor Statistics

  37. Steel Products 1/02 =100 Scrap Semi-finished Hot-rolled Cold-rolled Nails Bureau of Labor Statistics

  38. Builders Reporting Shortages : May 2006 Source: NAHB Builders Economic Council Survey

  39. Long Term Demand and Supply

  40. New Homes Started/Shipped

  41. Composition of New Housing Construction Manufactured Homes Multifamily Single-family Source: Bureau of Census single-family housing starts, multifamily housing starts, and manufactured home shipments.

  42. House Price Growth Vs. CPI Core Year-to-Year % Chg. House Prices CPI Core Sources: OFHEO (purchase only), BLS

  43. Median New Home Price/Median Income Median New Home Sales Price: Census ; Median HH Income: CPS/Economy.com

  44. Payment (PIT) / Median HH Income Home Price: Census Median New Home; 30yr Rate: Freddie Mac; Income: CPS/Economy.com

  45. Expected User Cost/Median HH Income Expected appreciation = avg rate of increase for OFHEO House Price Index in preceding 3 years; Uses Med New Home Price, Freddie Mac Mortgage Rate, 28% Tax Bracket, 1% RE Tax, 1.25% Maint/Dep, 80% LTV, Alt Investment = 10yr Treasury Bond

  46. Alternate User Cost Assumptions

  47. Alternate User Cost Values

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