The Kamloops Future Forest Strategy Project

1. 1 The Kamloops Future Forest Strategy Project An Adaptation Strategy For Climate Change

2. 2 The Kamloops Future Forest Strategy Team…

3. 3 Overview of the Kamloops TSA: Blue River • Four Major Licensees managing Approximately 2.7 million hectares. • Annual allowable timber harvest • 2.7 million cubic metres • Currently 4.3 million cubic metres to deal with pine beetle. • High degree of topographic and ecological diversity. Clearwater Barriere Cache Creek

4. 4 GOAL of the KFFS… To Rationalize expectations and direction for future forest management… …in the context of expected impacts of climate change. And hopefully avoid some surprises

5. 5 Objectives of the KFFS • Understand potential climate change impacts on management values. • Design adaptive actions for: • Tree species for reforestation • Harvesting priorities • Other forest treatments • Design a vision for future forest conditions • to sustain values and promote resilience. • Identify vulnerabilities, barriers, and info gaps. • Provide Recommendations to move forward. • For Forest Company Licensees • For the Ministry of Forests Executive

6. 6 KFFS – Multi-disciplinary/agency/stakeholder involvement… • MFR Victoria Branch Specialists Advisory Session • 5 staff • SISCO Workshops • 75 Summer • 40-50 Winter • MFR Kamloops District and Region info session • 20-30 staff • National Forest Adaptation Strategy • 2 staff • KFFS will be a case study • Min of Environment Info Session • 3 staff KFFS TSA team • Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium • 1staff member Min of Forests & Range (MFR) Executive Symmetree Support Team • BCTS S. Interior Info Session • 50-60 staff • Ecological & Management Sensitivity Workshops • 9 MFR Regional Specialists. • 4 MoE Specialists • 1 MFR District person • 3 Licensee practitioners • 1 First Nations rep • 2 University professors • 2 Other specialists • TR University Info Session • 5 staff • British Forestry Commission • 1 staff member • Conference Board of Canada • 28 on leaders’ round table • BC FFEI Info webcast and Planning session • 100+ staff • UBC Advisory Session • 3 staff

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9. 9 Mapping impacts of climate change over time… Used ClimateBC to downscale GCM data, along with GIS tools and local ecological interpretation to: • Express changes in future climates as changes in ecological subzone-climates. • Explored the reclustering of new climate variables guided by current data. • Ecologist judgments for boundary decisions and reasonable gradient of subzones

10. 10 Modeling Climate Change with ClimateBC… • HadCM3-A1FI (Most Change / Worst Case Scenario) • Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction UK. • Pessimistic view of future emissions –current trend into the future. • Predicts hottest driest summers. • PCM-B1 (Least Change / Best Case Scenario) • Atmospheric Research Program for Climate Modeling USA. • Optimistic that emissions will be significantly reduced. • Predicts moderate summers. Added climate input files for two different Global Climate Models with divergent Global Emission Scenarios:

11. 11 Northern Half of TSA… Current Ecological Zonation

12. 12 Northern Half of TSA… Best Case in 2050 (PCM-B1)

13. 13 Northern Half of TSA… Worst Case in 2050 (Hadley A1FI)

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15. 15 Ecological Sensitivities Ecological Narratives

16. 16 MSxk – Bookend climate scenarios ECOLOGICAL SENSITIVITY WORKSHOP – Kamloops Future Forest Strategy 2008

17. 17 MSxk STANDS / ECOSYSTEMS – In a changing climate

18. 18 Ecological Sensitivity Assessment PRODUCT = Ecological Narratives. • Future Forest Conditions - IF WE CONTINUE TO MANAGE AS WE DO NOW. • Changes in mature and old growth stands across the landscape. • Changes in young stands across the landscapes • Disturbance mechanisms

19. 19 Ecological Sensitivities provide context for next stepsSummary with 5 BEC Subzone-Groups

20. 20 Management Sensitivities

21. 21 GENERAL TRENDS - Management SensitivitiesSummary with 5 Broad Ecological Zones

22. 22 RESULTS: Management Sensitivities…EXAMPLE : Dry Subzones with Pli • Pine on marginal sites will become Non-productive -shrinking the harvestable landbase. • KEY – Existing timber stands could take a huge hit: • 30-40% of landbase will be in young pine post MPB. • Expect widespread mortality again after 2050.

23. 23 RESULTS: Management Sensitivities…EXAMPLE : Dry Subzones with Pli • Extensive disturbance and mortality threatens: • The small amount of Old Growth habitats in the area. • The amount and distribution of mature trees as wildlife trees and patches. • To increase amount of invasive plants.

24. 24 RESULTS: Management Sensitivities…EXAMPLE : Dry Subzones with Pli • Extensive disturbance and mortality threatens: • The small amount of Old Growth habitats in the area. • The amount and distribution of mature trees as wildlife trees and patches. • To increase amount of invasive plants. • Will also impact species at risk, or “of concern”

25. 25 Just a caution… None of this is TRUE or REAL…

26. 26 • BUT – It is: • Less unbelievable than assuming nothing will change. • Plausible- based on what we know now.

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28. 28 Adaptive Actions Integrated Strategic Planning Targeted Harvesting Other Stand Treatments Brinkman and Associates Planting different tree species

29. 29 EXAMPLE: Adaptive Actions…OVERVIEW: Dry Subzones with Pli

30. 30 Vision for the Future Forest Condition to 2080 • The Future Forest, as influenced by KFFS Adaptive Actions. • A story of different developing landscapes • The Conditions for each Key Management Value. • With and without the KFFS.

31. 31 The Future Forest – The Timber Supply Picture

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33. 33 Vulnerabilities: Cedar-Hemlock to Doug-fir Transitional Forests Vulnerability with PARTIAL implementation (Due to barriers) Vulnerability with FULL implementation (barriers removed)

34. 34 RESULTS: General Management BARRIERS… • There is no process to integrate strategically over the long term at multiple spatial scales. • Our current system encourages least cost silviculture. • Difficult to encourage licensees to harvest susceptible stands - if profit is marginal. • Difficult to manage throughout the life of the forest (beyond free-growing). • Licensees and the province are reluctant to take on more risk associated with forest management.

35. 35 GENERAL TRENDS - Vulnerabilities…Potential vs. Projected Management Vulnerability THE ENTIRE TSA Vulnerability with FULL implementation (barriers removed) Vulnerability with PARTIAL implementation (Due to barriers)

36. 36 THE POINT OF ALL THIS? • Climate Change underscores the need to significantly shift the way we manage our forests. • Must heed warning signs • OR?

37. 37 • RECOMMENDATIONS • To address key barriers. • To start implementation

38. 38 Recommendations…to: • Start implementing management actions on the ground. • Integrate into a strategic planning process • Take the approach to the rest of BC • Address legislation and policy to remove barriers

39. 39 What is next? – Follow-up project 2009-2011 • Use suggested direction regarding adaptive actions to more robust adaptive actions with modeling and scenario analysis. • For key question regarding several overlapping values/issues (e.g. timber, biodiversity, interface fire risks, carbon). • In a case study area or areas that include the most vulnerable landscapes. • Explore some sensitivities with the most uncertainties. • To improve confidence and credibility in the need for adaptive actions.

40. 40 For more information: • KFFS webpage - http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/hcp/ffs/kamloopsFFS.htm. • (Google - Kamloops Future Forest Strategy) • Ken Zielke • ph. 604-921-6077 • email : kzielke@symmetree.ca