Strategies in the 2008 Presidential Campaign Christopher Arterton Dean of the GSPM

1. Strategies in the 2008 Presidential Campaign Christopher Arterton Dean of the GSPM

2. Definition of Strategy in Electoral Politics A road map defining an objective* and specifying the means* to achieve it * Precision and concreteness matter!

3. 1. Goals – coalition of voters to support candidacy 2. Available Resources – money, staff, volunteers 3. Deployment of Scarce Resources 4. Messages Elements of Strategy in Electoral Politics

4. POLICIES: Proposals advanced by candidate IMAGES: Unique qualities of candidate NARRATIVE: Unique history of candidate FRAME: Question to be decided by election Messaging in Electoral Politics

5. McCain’s General Election Strategy (A) Goals: Unify party particularly social conservatives Reach toward undecided voters in middle Attract women disaffected by treatment of Clinton Focus on “Bush states” from 2000 and 2004

6. McCain’s General Election Strategy (B) Resources: Federal Public Funding: $84 million RNC Party Funds: $150 Million (?) Party committees in “Red States” Choice of Vice-Presidential Running Mate Highly Centralized Campaign Structure

7. McCain’s General Election Strategy (C) Messaging: “Mavericks” will reform Washington National Security Expertise: “Country First” Obama: Cultural “Celebrity” (Not Leader) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ocngIAeXjQ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Id1IKJGVkvg 4. Obama: Untested and Inexperienced 5. Obama: “Tax-and-Spend Liberal” 6. Obama: “Un-American” http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ONfJ7YSXE5w

8. Goals: Unify party particularly Clinton supporters Reach toward undecided voters (“Change Election”) Mobilize Young Voters (18 to 30) Increase African-American & Hispanic turnout 35 states = multiple paths to Electoral College victory Obama’s General Election Strategy (A)

9. Resources: Ability to raise money ($151 Million in September) Three million plus on mybarackobama.com Organization built during primary campaign Wholly owned campaign organization Cohesive structure of “insurgent” campaign 80% of public believing nation on “wrong track” Obama’s General Election Strategy (B)

10. Messaging: “Change we can believe in” “Yes we can!”http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jjXyqcx-mYYhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oTji3oiUKnA Middle-class tax cut http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X8BDyz4J-QA Jobs, healthcare, environment, energy independence McCain = Bush http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PluoMotgl2w Obama’s General Election Strategy (C)

11. This election is about ► effective, experienced leadership; a genuine hero ► a choice for “mavericks” that can and will change Washington (except in matters of national security) ► choosing a team that will put “Country First” ► times are too critical to elect Obama  an untested, unknown leader  with liberal policies, and  ties to radical elements Competing Frames: McCain

12. This election is about ► Change … change we can believe in ► Uniting Americans in a quest: “we are all one people” ► “This is our time” (for greatness): generational shift ► Republican policies have produced the economic crisis ► McCain equals third term for Bush ► Choosing a candidate that embodies change & progress  low key persona and moderate policies  bi-partisan approaches to public policy  the first African-American president Competing Frames: Obama

13. Electoral College Results 2004 and 2008 http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/2008/

14. BATTLEGROUND 2008 Tracking Poll October 23, October 26 - October 29, 2008 N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E.

15. UNAIDED BALLOT (N=800)

16. Overall, how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the choice of candidates for president this year -- are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied or very dissatisfied?

17. Who better represents this quality: John McCain or Barack Obama?WILL BRING CHANGE TO WASHINGTON

18. Who better represents this quality: John McCain or Barack Obama?IS A STRONG LEADER

19. Who better represents this quality: John McCain or Barack Obama?WILL CREATE JOBS*

20. Who better represents this quality: John McCain or Barack Obama?KEEPING AMERICA SAFE AND SECURE

21. Who better represents this quality: John McCain or Obama?WILL KEEP AMERICA PROSPEROUS

22. Who better represents this quality: John McCain or Obama?WILL UNITE THE COUNTRY

23. Who better represents this quality: John McCain or Barack Obama?FIGHTS FOR PEOPLE LIKE ME

24. Who better represents this quality: John McCain or Barack Obama?SHARES YOUR VALUES

25. Putting aside your own personal feelings for a moment, how comfortable do you think that your friends or neighbors would be voting for a Presidential candidate who is African American?

26. Putting aside your own personal feelings for a moment, how comfortable do you think that your friends or neighbors would be voting for a Presidential candidate who is 72 years old?

27. Regardless of who you intend to vote for, which candidate – John McCain, or Barack Obama -- do you think is running a more negative campaign?

28. UNAIDED BALLOT (N=800)

29. ► … the economy tanked (63% said most important: 53/44)* ► … Bush disapproval (51% strongly disapproved: 82/16) ► … a “Change Election” (34%: 89/9) ► … he raised more money ($639M to $360M for McCain) ► … the African-American turnout (11% in ’04; 13% in ’08: 95/4) SUMMARY (with Exit Poll Data): Obama won because ….

30. ► … the Latino vote (9% of electorate; 67/31) ► … the young voters (+1% in ’08 to 18%: 66/32) ► … the gender gap (men = 47%: 49/48; women = 53%: 56/43) ► … a surge in turnout (17% did not vote in ’04: 71/27; increase from 124M to 126M) ► … better organization (26% contacted by Obama: 64/34; versus 18% contacted by McCain (38/60) SUMMARY Cont. (with Exit Poll Data): Obama won because ….

31. POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE