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This report by the Climate Prediction Center highlights the recent rainfall patterns and current conditions of the Asian-Australian monsoon system. It also provides predictions for the future and a summary of the climatology of the monsoon.
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The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP October 06, 2014 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml
Outline • Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions • Monsoon Prediction • Summary • Climatology
Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days For the past 90 days, the rainfall over some parts of India, southern Pakistan, and far northeastern China have been generally below normal. Isolated pockets of above normal rainfall are noted along the Western Ghats, Nepal, Bangladesh, Burma, southeastern China, the Philippines, and in some regions of the maritime Indonesian islands. According to the India Met. Dept.(IMD), the SW summer monsoon season (June 1st – Sep.30th) rainfall ended with a 12% deficit from normal levels.
Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days For the past 30 days, except over parts of Nepal, northeast India and east central China, rainfall levels were below normal across much of the south and east Asia monsoon region.
Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days In this past week, rainfall over much of central India and over large parts of southeast Asian countries was much below normal.
Rainfall Time Seriesover 5x5 lat-lon boxes The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier.
NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2
Summary For the past 90 days, the rainfall over some parts of India, southern Pakistan, and far northeastern China have been generally below normal. Isolated pockets of above normal rainfall are noted along the Western Ghats, Nepal, Bangladesh, Burma, southeastern China, the Philippines, and in some regions of the maritime Indonesian islands. According to the India Met. Dept.(IMD), the SW summer monsoon season (June 1st – Sep.30th) rainfall ended with a 12% deficit from normal levels. For the past 30 days, except over parts of Nepal, northeast India and east central China, rainfall levels were below normal across much of the south and east Asia monsoon region. In this past week, rainfall over much of central India and over large parts of southeast Asian countries was much below normal. For the next couple of weeks, except for some parts of India and the Philippines, the NCEP GFS model is predicting much below normal rainfall over entire southern and southeast Asia region.
