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DEMAND MODELING APPROACH FOR ENERGY SERVICES MODELING COLLOQUIUM 31 JULY 2012 PowerPoint Presentation
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DEMAND MODELING APPROACH FOR ENERGY SERVICES MODELING COLLOQUIUM 31 JULY 2012 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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DEMAND MODELING APPROACH FOR ENERGY SERVICES MODELING COLLOQUIUM 31 JULY 2012
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  1. DEMAND MODELING APPROACH FOR ENERGY SERVICES MODELING COLLOQUIUM 31 JULY 2012 Dr R Maserumule Demand Modeling Specialist Department of Energy

  2. Energy Demand in South Africa This what we collect This what we need for the IEP

  3. South African Context • Studies on end use once off • Institute Energy Studies (Early 1990’s) • Eskom (2012) • Department of Energy (2009, 2012)

  4. Three Basic Approaches to Forecasting • Judgmental: Obtained by asking a group of experts about the behavior of the population. • Econometric: Obtained by analysing the time series of historical population • Engineering: Obtained through small scale studies of a controlled population

  5. Total Energy Services (303805 TJ) Total Energy Carriers (303805 TJ)

  6. Overview of Demand Models (112)

  7. Opportunities for Collaboration • Continuous detailed sector studies on end use • Measure carbon footprint • Opportunities for deploying energy efficiency interventions

  8. Bottom Up Approach

  9. Opportunities for Collaboration • Common dataset for historical energy consumption • DoE energy balances • Eskom electricity sales • Other data sets • Common dataset for macroeconomic data • GDP growth • Activity variables • Population (total number of households) • Physical Production (tons of coal, tons of gold)

  10. THANK YOU