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Analyzing Policy Scenarios for Climate Change: Illinois Climate Change Advisory Group Meeting

The Illinois Climate Change Advisory Group, led by Governor Rod R. Blagojevich, convened on February 22, 2007, to discuss energy-environment modeling. The meeting focused on the necessity of modeling various policy scenarios and their implications for energy prices, emissions reductions, and economic impacts. Key topics included modeling of electricity dispatch, new builds, transport sector dynamics, and efficiency improvements across sectors. The group analyzed trends in Illinois GHG emissions from 1990-2020 and highlighted various models such as Energy 2020 and NEMS as potential tools for assessing policy outcomes.

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Analyzing Policy Scenarios for Climate Change: Illinois Climate Change Advisory Group Meeting

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  1. Energy-Environment Modeling Meeting of the Illinois Climate Change Advisory Group 300 West Adams St., 2nd Floor, Chicago, IL February 22, 2007 Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group

  2. Why model? • Examine different policy scenarios, including sensitivities • Examine the cost of policy packages • Assess interplay between policy options

  3. What gets modeled? Power - dispatch - electricity prices - new builds GSP Employment Energy Prices • Transport • - VMT • mode switching New Policies Energy Demand • Industry • Commercial • Residential Agriculture • - production • efficiency Emissions - reductions - cost of reductions

  4. Need to model policies that can reduce these emissions Some modeling already done Illinois GHG Emission Trends with Energy Plan Reductions 1990-2020 Energy Plan emissions reductions from BAU

  5. Examples of models: • Multi-sector • Energy 2020 • Markal • National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) • Power sector only • IPM • Haiku (Resources for the Future) • Regional dispatch models • Transport sector only • UC Davis • Economic Impacts • REMI • state-level input-output models

  6. Key model attributes to consider: • Analytic capabilities • Energy prices, demand, efficiency • Policy design variables • Multi-regional interactions • Inter-sectoral dynamics • Emissions benefits • Economic • Time horizon and solution intervals • Operation • Licensing • Customization tasks • Lead time to develop • Running the model • Cost • Sensitivity analyses

  7. Next steps and discussion:

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