Swedish immigration policy and politics: A window on Europe

1. Swedish immigration policy and politics: A window on Europe Daniel Hiebert Metropolis British Columbia, and University of British Columbia

2. Outline • Context: the demographic challenge • Basic facts about Sweden… and Swedish politics • Swedish migration and integration policy and administration • Possible changes to migration and integration policy • The lessons of Sweden

3. Context The demographic challenge of below-replacement fertility… general responses: • Ignore the problem (e.g., Italy) • Increase net migration (e.g., Canada) • Raise productivity and elongate working careers (e.g., Japan) • Restore fertility (e.g., Sweden)

4. Sweden: some basic facts • Population > 9 million • Size roughly equivalent to Québec • Government elected by modified proportional representation • Complex and flexible system with several quirks • Current government: right-centre coalition led by the Moderate Party (conservative) • Next election: September 2010

5. Immigrants in Sweden • Total population > 1 million (~12.5%) • Recent flows: 100,000 per year • Top source countries (1990-2007): • Finland • Former Yugoslavia • Iraq • Iran • Poland • Norway • Denmark • Germany • Turkey • Chile

6. Swedish politics • Popular opinion evenly divided • Right-centre group (49% in latest poll) • Pink-red-green group (44%) • Wild card: Sweden Democrats (populist party) • 4% rule (currently 4.5% in polls) • Anti-immigration policy; intention to dismantle multiculturalism and offer incentives to either assimilate or leave Sweden; recently expelled vocal racists from party; irony… surprisingly strong immigrant presence in party

7. Popular opinion on migration • Not as ‘troubled’ as other European countries • Critical dividing point is on the asylum system • Negative side: concern over ‘bogus’ refugees and enclaves, parallel lives • Positive side: support for humanitarian policies including asylum • Complex relationship to party politics (e.g., Social Democrats)

8. Swedish immigration policy • EU migration: open borders, unplanned, unregulated, invisible immigrants • Open Labour Market but not social support • Mentality of Sweden as part of Europe • Non-EU migration: permanent immigration is dominated by family reunification and asylum (mostly from Islamic countries) (nearly 90% of total) • Mentality of immigration as a gift to outsiders who are victims (public debate is about asylum and ethical issues) • Very different from Canada

9. Admission systems • Humanitarian • Resettlement program (~2000 annually) • NO TRANSPORTATION LOANS • As in Canada, resettlement location is assigned • Asylum system • Similar institution to IRB • Family • Sponsorship requirement … similar to Canada • Economic • Stepwise, employment driven

10. Integration in Sweden • Swedish society defined by: • Affluence • Welfare state with an ethic of redistribution • Goal of gender equality • Transparency of the state and the private sphere • Widely shared cultural norms • Asylum migration (especially from Islamic countries) is popularly interpreted as a potential challenge to these core values • Frequent statements by Sweden Democrats reinforce these views

11. Managing Swedish migration and integration • National government • Ministry of Justice includes Minister for Migration and Asylum policy (Tobias Billström) • Ministry of Integration and Gender Equity (NyamkoSabuni) • Establishes integration policy, standards and provides funding • Ministry of Employment (LM issues and employmentassistance) (T. Billström, as of 7 July!) • Regional government: Negligible role • Municipal government: Key role • Develops and administers most programs • Adult education • Social work and counselling • Social housing • Some examples of inter-government cooperation • Negligible role for NGOs and other partners

12. Newcomer perspective on services • All employment related services: Ministry of Employment • Labour offices distributed throughout Sweden • All other services: Municipal government • Fairly coherent and consistent package across jurisdictions • But, inevitable scale differences • Connection (through municipality) to education, housing, social welfare

13. Special case of asylum • Similar to Canada, but some key differences • With temporary humanitarian visa, there is an offer of housing (ABO vs. EBO) • Context of social housing • Self-housed asylum seekers live in large cities • State-housed live in periphery • Municipalities have a choice to participate • Interesting connection between asylum and funding for municipalities • Economic outcomes… • Recently, asylum seekers entitled to work permits • But exceptionally low employment rates

14. Changing migration policy • As in Canada, parties are not very far apart but there are some significant differences • Left alliance: SDs determined to disperse immigrants and refugees (“we will not let refugees live where they choose”) • Right alliance: determined to raise economic immigration • Not through open-ended system like Canada • By opening existing employer-driven system of stepwise immigration … actively planning and building pathways • Cautious approach with input from org. labour

15. Changing integration policy • Sweeping change planned for December, 2010, if Moderate party is still in power • Sense of failed outcomes in refugee and family integration • Process of ’recentralization’ • Areas of municipal responsibility will be shifted to the national Ministry of Employment • Focus will be on preparation for employment, with stronger incentives to work (e.g., bonuses) • Core indicator of success will be acquisition of a job • Aside: EU defined integration measures for all states to use in 2009 (Sweden led this initiative) • Dominated by employment, income, education

16. New European integration indicators • Employment (standard measures) • Education • Average educational attainment • % low-achieving 15-year olds • Drop-out rates • Social inclusion • Median income; % low income • % property ownership • % perceiving health status as poor • Active citizenship • % citizenship acquisition • % immigrants among elected representatives

17. Perspective of the newcomer • ‘One-stop shopping’ for services • Plan is for ‘personal coach’ for each newcomer • Unclear whether the left coalition would support this… but unlikely • Municipal governments will resist change

18. Aside: on data • How does the Swedish government monitor outcomes? • Population register data system… all records linked for individuals • Widely available to researchers • (note: there is no census) • Excellent ‘hard’, longitudinal data; poor ‘soft’ data

19. Challenges of the Swedish system • Dominance of high-need asylum newcomers • Regionalization through housing policy • Unsatisfactory economic outcomes • Perceived ghettoization in larger cities • E.g., riots in Malmoe in June, 2009 • Potential for hostile public debate • Limits policy development • General lack of policy-research interface • Socially, immigration is eclipsed in importance by focus on fertility and reproduction

20. The lessons of Sweden • Policy evolution does not necessarily only go in one direction • Policy cycle: devolution and then reconcentration • Excellent data helps in evaluating program outcomes • Swedish population registry is a 100% data system • Widely available in government and to academic researchers • Surprising outcomes (e.g., housing of asylum seekers)

21. Sweden as ‘Europe light’ • Sweden has all the debates of Europe, but less of the acrimony • Migration issues muted by demography; no sense of urgency • Also muted by tradition of social democracy and the welfare state • Unfortunately, the less rancorous debates in Sweden are unlikely to influence other European countries • Strong interest in Canada on the part of Swedes • Potential for new debates as employers become more prominent in the immigration system