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Poli 103A California Politics Moving On Up to Sacramento. Moving On Up to Sacramento. The Necessary Conditions for Success External factors Internal factors Recent Gains and Losses in Minority Representation Does Minority Representation Make a Difference?.

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moving on up to sacramento
Moving On Up to Sacramento
  • The Necessary Conditions for Success
    • External factors
    • Internal factors
  • Recent Gains and Losses in Minority Representation
  • Does Minority Representation Make a Difference?
the necessary conditions for success
The Necessary Conditions for Success
  • Fernando Guerra identifies the conditions necessary to elect Latinos to important office in California.
    • “External factors” are the general electoral conditions outside of the control of the Latino community.
    • “Internal factors” are under the effective control of the Latino community, its leaders, and organizations (Guerra, p. 444)
the necessary conditions for success external factors
The Necessary Conditions for Success: External Factors
  • #1. Reapportionment: new districts destabilize incumbents, and the Voting Rights Act can redress past vote dilution.
  • #2. Term Limits: booting out incumbents allows demographic trends to be reflected in election results.
  • #3. Conventional wisdom about the tendencies of minority voters. Changes in perception lag behind changes in behavior.
the necessary conditions for success internal factors
The Necessary Conditions for Success: Internal Factors
  • #1. Political maturity of the community. To be an effective voting block, it can take decades for a group to age, naturalize, become natural-born, and raise its socio-economic status.
    • African-American community is mature by age and naturalization standards, gaining in socioeconomic.
    • Some API groups are wealthy and have high rates of citizenship, some have neither, some have one.
    • Latinos are steadily becoming more political mature in both respects, but have a way to go.
the necessary conditions for success internal factors1
The Necessary Conditions for Success: Internal Factors
  • #2. Political maturity of organizations that are not candidate or campaign specific. Groups like the NAACP, MALDEF, NALEO, 80/20, and legislative caucuses are mature, as are churches, ethnic media, and unions.
  • #3. Political maturity of leadership. In the early 1990’s, leaders like Richard Polanco “selected and elected” by recruiting candidates and helping their campaigns.
recent gains and losses in minority representation2
Recent Gains and Losses in Minority Representation
  • Latino, black, API, Jewish, and gay legislators have also risen to leadership positions in the Legislature:
    • Willie Brown’s 15-year reign as Speaker, and Herb Wesson’s recent term.
    • Cruz Bustamante, Antonio Villaraigosa, and Fabian Nunez speakerships.
    • Speaker Bob Hertzberg, Majority Whip Wilma Chan, and Appropriations Chair Carole Migden and Judiciary Chair Sheila Keuhl.
recent gains and losses discussion section questions
Recent Gains and Losses (Discussion Section Questions)
  • These data present a few puzzles:
    • Why have minorities performed so much better in state elections than in Congressional elections?
    • Is the drop in African-American representation a temporary blip or a long-term trend, and what explains it?
    • Why haven’t gains at the district level translated into increasing minority success in statewide contests?
does minority representation make a difference
Does Minority Representation Make a Difference?
  • “Descriptive representation” comes when members of a minority group are elected to office.
  • “Substantive representation” comes when a minority community elects a candidate of its choosing who pursues policy goals responding to the needs of that community.
does minority representation make a difference1
Does Minority Representation Make a Difference?
  • Willie Brown’s substantive representation of gay and lesbian voters in his district led to passage of the Sexual Freedoms Act, and Sheila Keuhl passed partnership rights.
  • Latino and Asian legislators led the push to provide healthcare and welfare for legal, noncitizen residents after welfare reform.
  • Black members of Congress from California have been national civil rights leaders.
does minority representation make a difference2
Does Minority Representation Make a Difference?
  • How would you design a study to systematically answer this question?
    • Find districts that switched from non-minority to minority representation, but stayed relatively stable in demographics.
    • Examine the legislation sponsored by previous legislators and minority members.
    • Make this comparison for districts that vary in the size of their minority population.
does minority representation make a difference3
Does Minority Representation Make a Difference?
  • The Catch-22 of Willie Brown. As minority legislators assume positions of greater power, these jobs require them to appeal to a much broader constituency.
    • Speaker Willie Brown may have been “the most powerful African American elected official in the nation (p. 138),” but “Brown used his legislative prowess to protect his members rather than advance his own liberal agenda. (p. 157)” -- Richardson
recent gains and losses discussion section questions1
Recent Gains and Losses (Discussion Section Questions)
  • These data present a few puzzles:
    • Why have minorities performed so much better in state elections than in Congressional elections?
    • Is the drop in African-American representation a temporary blip or a long-term trend, and what explains it?
    • Why haven’t gains at the district level translated into increasing minority success in statewide contests?