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Overview

Overview. Scientific Advisory Committee Meeting 12 April 2010. Dear SAC members and agency colleagues - Welcome!. COLA Scientific Advisory Committee The SAC reviews and advises on scientific activities at COLA. Current members selected in consultation with the Federal agencies:

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Overview

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  1. Overview Scientific Advisory Committee Meeting 12 April 2010

  2. Dear SAC membersand agency colleagues - Welcome!

  3. COLA Scientific Advisory Committee The SAC reviews and advises on scientific activities at COLA. Current members selected in consultation with the Federal agencies: G. Branstator NCAR (1999– ) R. Dickinson Georgia Tech (1998– ; chair 2004 –) J. Hurrell NCAR (2010 – ) T. Palmer ECMWF (2010 – S. Schubert NASA Goddard (2002 – ) J. Slingo UK Met Office (2005 – ) S. Sorooshian UC Irvine (2005 – ) L. Uccellini NOAA NCEP (2007 – ) B. Wang University of Hawaii (2005 – ) Other distinguished colleagues who have served on the COLA SAC: D. Anderson ECMWF (2005-2007) L. Bengtsson Max-Planck-Institute (1998-2001) D. Burridge ECMWF (1994–1999;2001 – 2005) A. Busalacchi NASA Goddard (1994-1997) D. Hartmann University of Washington (1998–2005; chair; 1999–2003 ) A. Leetmaa GFDL (2000 – 2005 ) R. Mechoso UCLA (1994-1998) K. Miyakoda IMGA (Italy) (1994-1997) G. North Texas A&M University (1999 – 2005) Julia Paegle University of Utah (1994-1997) K. Trenberth NCAR (1994-99; chair 1998-99) J. M. Wallace University of Washington (1994-99; chair 1994-97)

  4. Congratulations to SorooshSorooshian! WALTER ORR ROBERTS LECTURER IN INTERDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES American Meteorological Society, 2009 For “bridging the interdisciplinary gap between hydrology, meteorology, and remote sensing.”

  5. COLA Scientific Advisory Committee The SAC reviews and advises on scientific activities at COLA. Current members selected in consultation with the Federal agencies: G. Branstator NCAR (1999– ) R. Dickinson Georgia Tech (1998– ; chair 2004 –) J. Hurrell NCAR (2010 – ) T. Palmer ECMWF (2010 – S. Schubert NASA Goddard (2002 – ) J. Slingo UK Met Office (2005 – ) S. Sorooshian UC Irvine (2005 – ) L. Uccellini NOAA NCEP (2007 – ) B. Wang University of Hawaii (2005 – ) Other distinguished colleagues who have served on the COLA SAC: D. Anderson ECMWF (2005-2007) L. Bengtsson Max-Planck-Institute (1998-2001) D. Burridge ECMWF (1994–1999;2001 – 2005) A. Busalacchi NASA Goddard (1994-1997) D. Hartmann University of Washington (1998–2005; chair; 1999–2003 ) A. Leetmaa GFDL (2000 – 2005 ) R. Mechoso UCLA (1994-1998) K. Miyakoda IMGA (Italy) (1994-1997) G. North Texas A&M University (1999 – 2005) Julia Paegle University of Utah (1994-1997) K. Trenberth NCAR (1994-99; chair 1998-99) J. M. Wallace University of Washington (1994-99; chair 1994-97)

  6. Congratulations to Tim Palmer! CARL-GUSTAF ROSSBY RESEARCH MEDAL American Meteorological Society, 2010 For “fundamental contributions to understanding the role of nonlinear processes in the predictability of weather and climate, and for developing tools for estimating such predictability.”

  7. Congratulations to Jay Fein! EDWARD A. FLINN III AWARD American Geophysical Union, 2009 The award honors “individuals who personify the Union's motto 'unselfish cooperation in research' through their facilitating, coordinating, and implementing activities.”

  8. Congratulations to COLA! Bohua Huang 2007 AMS Editor’s Award J. Shukla 2008 Fellow of the AGU Paul Dirmeyer 2009 Distinguished Alumnus UMd. AOS Program J. Kinter 2010 Fellow of the AMS

  9. SAC Meeting Goals Survey COLA progress since last SAC meeting (December 2007) Summarize plans for 2009-2014 (new omnibus grant)

  10. Vision and Mission VISION Global Society Benefits from Basic and Applied Research and Education on Climate Variability and Predictability and the Free Access to Data and Research Tools MISSION Explore, Establish and Quantify the Predictability and Prediction of Intra-Seasonal to Decadal Variability in a Changing Climate

  11. Multi-Model Approach: Honest Broker(via Institutional Collaborations) • Community Climate System Model (CCSM; NSF) • Leading effort to correct tropical biases • Adaptation as seasonal predictability research tool • Climate Forecast System (CFS; NOAA - Climate Test Bed) • Participation in external and internal CTB planning • Predictability research with NCEP CFS • Work toward multi-model prediction capability • Modeling, Analysis and Prediction (MAP) (GEOS; NASA) • New atmospheric reanalysis (MERRA) uses new ESMF-based model (GEOS-5) • Multi-model ensemble • Utilizing NASA satellite data for predictability and prediction research focused on characterizing role of noise and initialization

  12. “Omnibus” Funding COLA is a private, non-profit research institute supported by NSF (lead), NOAA and NASA through a single jointly-peer-reviewed *, jointly-funded five-year proposal. 2009-2014 Predictability of the Physical Climate System Funding: ~$3.6 M / yr Principal Investigator: Kinter Co-Investigators: Cash, DelSole, Dirmeyer, Huang, Jin, Klinger, Krishnamurthy, Schneider, Shukla, Straus REVIEWS: Excellent Excellent Excellent Excellent Excellent/Very Good Very Good Good 2004-2008 Predictability of Earth’s Climate Funding: ~$3.25M / yr (NSF - 46%; NOAA - 39%; NASA - 15%) Principal Investigator: Shukla Co-Investigators: DelSole, Dirmeyer, Huang, Kinter, Kirtman, Klinger, Krishnamurthy, Misra, Schneider, Schopf, Straus 1999-2003 Predictability and Variability of the Present Climate Funding: ~$2.75M / yr Principal Investigator: J. Shukla Co-PIs: J. Kinter, E. Schneider, P. Schopf, D. Straus Co-investigators: P. Dirmeyer, B. Huang, B. Kirtman 1994-1998 Predictability and Variability of the Present Climate Funding: $2.25M /yr Principal Investigator: J. Shukla Co-PIs: J. Kinter, E. Schneider, D. Straus * Thanks to our peers and the agencies

  13. History of COLA Omnibus Grant Omnibus Grant I 1994 – 1998 Five-Year Science Review 1993 – 1996 SAC & Agencies Review 6-7 Nov 1996 Agencies’ Guidance to Submit Proposal May 1997 SAC Review of Proposal 26-27 Mar 1998 Omnibus Proposal Submitted May 1998 Omnibus Grant II 1999-2003 SAC Meeting 14-15 Nov 2000 Five-Year Science Review 1997-2001 SAC & Agencies Review 21-22 Feb 2002 Agencies’ Guidance to Submit Proposal April 2002 SAC Review of Proposal 6-7 Feb 2003 Omnibus Proposal Submitted April 2003 Omnibus Grant III 2004-2008 SAC Meeting 26-27 Sep 2005 Five-Year Science Review 2002-2006 SAC & Agencies Review 26-28 Feb 2007 Agencies’ Guidance to Submit Proposal July 2007 SAC Review of Proposal Dec 2007 Omnibus Proposal SubmittedMar 2008 Funding of Award Delayed Jan – Sep 2009 Omnibus Grant IV 2009-2014 SAC Meeting 12-13 Apr 2010

  14. Core Staff (Team History) (1983-1993: University of Maryland; 1993-present: IGES) ScientistHighest Degree Joined COLA Scientific Staff J. Shukla * Sc.D. MIT (1976); Ph.D. BHU (1971) 1983 Pres., IGES (1993-present); Dir. COLA (1993-2004) J. L. Kinter III * Ph.D. Princeton (1984) 1984 Exec. Dir. COLA (1993-2004); Dir. COLA (2005-present) T. DelSole * Ph.D. Harvard (1993) 1997 P. A. Dirmeyer Ph.D. Maryland (1992) 1993 B. E. Doty * B.S. N. Illinois (1978) 1984 M. J. Fennessy M.S. SUNY-Albany (1980) 1984 B. Huang * Ph.D. Maryland (1992) 1993 E. Jin * Ph.D. Seoul (2005) 2006 V. Krishnamurthy * Ph.D. M.I.T. (1985) 1985 J. Lu * Ph.D. Dalhousie (2003) 2008 L. Marx M.S. MIT (1977) 1983 D. A. Paolino M.S. Illinois (1980) 1983 E. K. Schneider * Ph.D. Harvard (1976) 1984 D. M. Straus * Ph.D. Cornell (1977) 1984 Information Systems Staff J. Adams M.S. Washington (1993) 2000 C. Steinmetz, Dir. Ph.D. Purdue (1991) 1998 T. Wakefield B.S. Maryland (2004) 2000 * also affiliated with George Mason University Your most precious possessions are the people you have working there, and what they carry around in their heads, and their ability to work together. - Robert Reich

  15. COLA Scientific Staff ScientistHighest DegreeJoined COLA D. Achuthavarier Ph.D. George Mason (2009) 2009 E. Altshuler M.S. Maryland (1996)1998 B. Cash Ph.D. Penn State (2000) 2002 Z. Guo Ph.D. Ohio State (2002) 2002 B. Klinger (GMU) Ph.D. MIT-WHOI (1992) 2000 J. Manganello Ph.D. George Mason (2004) 2006 C. Stan Ph.D. Colorado State (2004) 2005 J. Wei Ph.D. Georgia Tech (2007) 2007 R. Wu Ph.D. Hawaii (1999) 2002 X. Yang Ph.D. SUNY Stony Brook (2006) 2006 J. Zhang Ph.D. Utah State (2005) 2010 Administrative Staff S. Whitlock (Office Coordinator) Your most precious possessions are the people you have working there, and what they carry around in their heads, and their ability to work together. - Robert Reich

  16. Selected Achievements in 2007-09

  17. Multi-Model Climate Analysis and Prediction • CCSM3: Demonstrated utility as a seasonal forecast model, comparable to CFS in skill and highly useful in combination with CFS as a multi-model ensemble • ocean initial conditions • ocean, atmosphere and land initial conditions • CFS: Used by COLA scientists and several Ph.D. students to study ENSO, the south Asian monsoon, seasonal prediction skill and its relation to model bias, Atlantic climate, intra-seasonal variability and its relation to tropical cyclones etc. • Model comparison: A full diagnostic comparison was made of the mean and interannually varying climates of the CFS, CCSM, GEOS-5/MOM3, Demeter, & APCC. • Interactive Ensemble: Technique developed by COLA, useful for isolating the role of atmospheric “weather noise”, tested in COLA model, applied in CFS and CCSM. • Superparameterization. A super-parameterized version of the fully-coupled CCSM was developed, run in a multi-decadal simulation and shown to produce a climate closer to the observed than the control CCSM.

  18. CCSM Re-Forecasts with Land ICs

  19. Annual Cycle Errors in CGCMs Observed and predicted (4-6 month lead) annual cycle (departures from annual mean) of SST along the equator. -- E. Jin et al.

  20. Land-Climate Interactions • GLACE(-1): Spatial and temporal (mean annual cycle) variability of regions of land-atmosphere feedbacks • GLACE-2: The impact of soil moisture initial conditions on seasonal predictions of surface air temperature and precipitation was found to peak in the second 15 days. • “The Maya Express”, an atmospheric river that supplies moisture to flooding events in the U.S. Midwest, links tropical and subtropical moisture from the Caribbean Sea to many extreme rainfall events during spring and summer. • The CLM3.5 and Noah land models were successfully coupled to the COLA AGCM. Together with SSiB, there are now three land models coupled to one AGCM, which makes a great tool for future innovative experiments on land-atmosphere interaction.

  21. Maya Express May-July 1979-2003 climatology (left) of precip, soil moisture, and evaporative source for box – and – anomalies of same for 10% highest precip in those months.

  22. Statistical Methods • Diagnosing predictability: Average Predictability Time (APT) analysis • Empirical correction: state-independent empirical correction can improve forecast bias, but leads to no detectable improvement in random error • Predictable component analysis: Components that maximize a certain class of predictability measures are universal, independent of the detailed form of the measure. • Data assimilation: An approach to estimating multiplicative model parameters in the ensemble Kalman Filter was developed. • Information theory: New measures of compactness, dependency, and non-Gaussian-ness based on information theory were proposed. • Stochastic models advanced • The limit of predictability of various phenomena such as the Asian monsoon and sudden stratospheric warming events was investigated. • CCA, Maximum Covariance Analysis, Redundancy Analysis shown to be equivalent.

  23. APT: Second leading predictable component has average predictability time of 34 days and clearly detects El Niño-related wind anomalies near the surface, with peaks in the principal component time series at times of large El Niño events.

  24. Seasonal-Interannual Variability Evaluations of: • The local rainfall-SST relationship on subseasonal time scales over the Indo-western Pacific Ocean • The role of the Indian Ocean in the out-of-phase transitions of the Australian to Indian summer monsoon • Modes of variability in the tropical Atlantic ENSO-forced and independent modes can be simulated in coupled climate models • The relationship of U.S. droughts to the time scales of SST and soil moisture variability

  25. DJF NINO3.4 JJA NINO3.4 US Seasonal Drought JJA PDSI JJA SPI-03: Short-term drought 1897-2005 correlation of JJA Palmer Drought Severity Index and Standardized Precip Index with respect to DJF and JJA NINO3.4 SST. The correlation coefficient at the 1% significance level is about 0.25 (or 0.35 for SPI24). JJA SPI-09: Medium-term drought JJA SPI-24: Long-term drought

  26. Publications 87.4% of all statistics are made up. -- Marge Inoverra

  27. Publications – Impact In addition to count of papers, we have some evidence that COLA publications are having an impact • Citation index = ~13,000 (9 Climate Dynamics faculty only) • Stan et al. highlighted in Nature Reports Climate Change (http://www.nature.com/climate/2010/1003/full/climate.2010.13.html), Science (10.1126/science.1185138 C), and NSF web page (being used as example of outstanding research funded by AGS for COV)

  28. Panels and Working Groups

  29. COLA Leadership - Examples World Climate Research Programme WCRP Joint Scientific Committee (JSC; Shukla, member) WCRP Modeling Panel (WMP; Shukla, chair) World Climate Modeling Summit (Shukla, chair; Kinter, member) Very successful meeting in May 2008 at ECMWF NSF GeoVision Subcommittee (Brasseur, chair; Kinter, member) Develop a new vision document for the NSF Geosciences in 2010-2015 NSF ATM Computing AC(Kinter, Seidel, co-chairs) Recommend best strategy for ensuring access to adequate high-end computing services for the atmospheric sciences NSF AC for Cyberinfrastructure(Bottom, chair; Kinter, member) TeraGrid SAB (Kinter, chair) Provide scientific guidance to NSF and TeraGrid NOAA NCEP Review Panel (Carr (OU) and Kinter, co-chairs) NOAA Climate Test Bed SAB (Busalacchi, chair; Kinter, member) Provide independent advice on high-priority scientific challenges Editors: J. Climate (Straus – outgoing; DelSole – incoming), Climate Dynamics (Schneider), Advances in Atmospheric Science (Huang)

  30. Peer-Reviewed Journals Bohua Huang Editor Adv. Atmos. Sci. David Straus (past) Assoc. Editor J. Climate Tim DelSole (current) Editor J. Climate Ed Schneider Editor Climate Dynamics

  31. Education George Mason University (GMU) established (2003) a new Ph.D. Program in Climate Dynamics (CD)in the School of Computational Sciences (SCS). CD became Climate Dynamics Department in College of Sciencein 2006. Now part of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Earth Sciences Department. • Current Graduate Students • K. Arsenault (Shukla/Dirmeyer/Houser) • G. Bucher (DelSole) • H. Chen (Schneider) • I. Colfescu (Schneider) • C. Cruz (Klinger) • X. Feng (Houser) • Graduates: A. Bamzai (1997), M. Verona (2002), J. Manganello (2004), W. Anderson (2005), R. Burgman (2005), Y. Vikhliaev (2005), S. Bates (2006), • L. Feudale (2006), K. Pegion (2007), D. Jin (2008), M. Fan (2008), D. Achuthavarier (2009), X. Pan (2009) • A. Hazra (Klinger) • Y. Jang (Straus) • E. Lajoie (DelSole) • J. Nattala (Kinter) • L. Krishnamurthy (Krishnamurthy) • J. Li (Huang) • B. Narapusetty(Schopf) • E. Palipane (Lu) • E. Stofferahn (Boybehi) • E. Swenson (Straus) • L. Xu (Shukla) • T.Yulmaaz(Houser) • GMUClimate Dynamics Faculty • Faculty: DelSole, Huang, Jin, Kinter, Klinger, Lu, Schneider, Schopf (assoc. dean, COS), Shukla, Straus (chair) • Term Research Fac.:Doty

  32. CLIM 101: Weather, Climate and Global Society The signs of global climate change can be seen all over the Earth. Some regions are already experiencing dramatic changes and more changes are expected in the future. The costs to society and ecosystems may be huge. Information about climate change is immensely valuable, and a public educated about the scientific basis for these changes is essential. This course provides a survey of the scientific and societal issues associated with weather and climate variability and change. It will enable students to critically examine arguments being discussed by policy makers, corporations, and the public at large. The current debate on climate change will be discussed from a scientific point of view, with a focus on those aspects that have the largest potential impact on global society. CLIM 101 is open to all undergraduate students and fulfills the General Education Natural Science (non-laboratory) requirement. Instructors: JagadishShukla, Jim Kinter and Emilia Jin August 6, 2008

  33. GrADS and GDS • GrADS has O(104) users worldwide with O(104)copies downloaded • GrADS figures are frequently found in weather and climate journals • GrADS is used to generate figures on many NOAA, NASA, university and non-US weather and climate data web pages (www.iges.org/grads/gotw.html) • GDS serves thousands of unique users (millions of hits) monthly from NOAA/NOMADS, NASA/LIS, CEOP etc. • COLA uses GDS to manage data at COLA and at NCAR

  34. 2007-9 Distinguished Lecturers D. James Baker (Clinton Foundation) Forests, Climate, & National Measurement Systems: Bringing Carbon Sequestration into UNFCCC LennartBengtsson(U Reading)Tropical Cyclones in a Warmer Climate Will Extra-tropical Storms Intensify in a Warmer Climate? MichelaBiasutti(Columbia)Global Climate Change and Sahel Rainfall ZaferBoybehi(GMU)Global to Local Scale Atmospheric Modeling Using Solution Adaptive Modeling Technique ReinhardBudich(MPI) Climate Computing in Times of CMIP5: Experiences, Plans and Perspectives at MPI Antonio Busalacchi(UMCP)Climate and Ecosystem Variability Ming Cai(FSU)Dynamical Polar Warming Amplification and a New Climate Feedback Analysis Framework Edmund Chang(SUNY, Stony Brook) How Much do we Understand Storm track Variations? Winston Chao (GSFC)The Origins of ITCZs, Monsoons, and Monsoon Onset Noah Diffenbaugh(Stanford) Dynamics and Impacts of Fine-Scale Climate Change SuneetDwivedi(JHU) Ocean state estimation in the Southern Ocean Gas exchange experiment region using 4DVAR RicchardoFarneti(Princeton) The Role of Mesoscale Eddies in the Rectification of the Southern Ocean Response to Climate Change Michael Ghil(ENS, Paris, and UCLA) Towards the Theory of the NAO Alessandra Giannini(IRI)Climate Change in the Sahel: Past, Present, Future Lisa Goddard (IRI)Towards Predicting the Full Probability Distribution of Seasonal Climate Akhilesh Gupta (India gov.) Observations, Predictions, and Impacts of Cyclone Nargis on Myanmar (Burma) Global Climate Change and India’s Development Pathway Tom Haine(JHU) Simulation and Assimilation of Denmark Strait Overflow Mike Harrison (Hadley Centre) Development in Africa - the Role and Improvement of Seasonal Predictions Don Johnson (NCEP)The Relevance of Entropy Eugenia Kalnay(UMCP) New Ideas on Ensemble Kalman Filter Noel Keenlyside(IFM-GEOMAR)Decadal Prediction: Closing the Gap Between Climate Projections and Seasonal Forecasts Marat Khairoutdinov(SUNY)Super-parameterization - Cloud-resolving Model in Climate Simulation Nicholas Klingaman(Reading) The intraseasonal oscillation of Indian summer monsoon: Air-sea interactions &high-resolution modeling Chihiro Kodama (JAMSTEC) NICAM Overview David Lary(UMBC)Automation As an Assistant to Discovery Bill Lau (NASA Goddard) Aerosol-monsoon Rainfall Interaction: the Role of the Tibetan Plateau Ruby Leung (PNNL) Regional Climate Modeling: Recent Development and Applications Jialin Lin (NOAA ESRL)Understanding the Tropical Biases in GCMs

  35. 2007-9 Distinguished Lecturers Ki-Hong Min (Valparaiso) A Regional Climate Modeling Study of the Northern Plains 1997 Snowmelt Flooding Event KikuMiyakoda(Princeton) ENSO Oscillation and Global Warming Andrea Molod(MIT)Modeling Surface-atmosphere Interactions Ajaya Mohan (CCCma; U. Victoria) Influence of IOD on Poleward Propagation of Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillations Franco Molteni(ECMWF) Recent developments in long-range forecasting at ECMWF: Steps towards seamless predictions Antonio Navarra (CMCC, Italy)The Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change: a New Italian Initiative Aida Diongue-Niang(NMA, Senegal) Part I: Eta-DWS Experience in Senegal and Part II: THORPEX-Africa WeihongQian(Peking University) Interdecadal Variability of Climate from Regional China and Global Scale Masaki Sato (CCSR, Tokyo) Overview of NICAM: Global cloud-resolving simulations and physics schemes, (October 21, 2009) Courtney Schumacher, (Texan A&M) Latent heating, radiative heating, and the large-scale tropical circulation Yong-Jia Song (Bjerknes Center) Numerical research of atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere YogeshSud(NASA Goddard)Simulating Aerosol-Cloud-Radiation Interaction Liqiang Sun (IRI)Climate Downscaling: The Value Added Using Regional Dynamical Models Claudia Tebaldi (Climate Central) Future climate change projections from multiple climate models: Consensus, uncertainties and what that means for impact models Hirofumi Tomita(JAMSTEC) Physical Identification of East Asian Subtropical Monsoon and Global Monsoon System Louis Uccellini(NCEP) Review of NCEP Progress in Operational Weather, Climate and Ocean Forecasts Gabriel A. Vecchi(GFDL) Tropical Response to Greenhouse Forcing: Oceanic and Atmospheric Contribution VenuVenugopal(IIS, India) Some Aspects of an Increasing Trend of Extreme Rain Events over India Carolina Vera (CIMA, Argentina) Climate Variability and Change in South America From WCRP/CMIP3 Models Mike Wallace (U Washington) (1) Equatorial Stationary Waves; (2) Storm Track Variability; (3) Blocking & NAO Temperature Sensitivity of the Pacific Snowpack Peter Webster (Georgia Tech)Hurricanes in a Warming World: From Genesis to Revelation Jianjun Yin (Princeton) The Role of the Thermohaline Circulation in Past and Future Climate Changes Donglian Yuan (IO, China) Equatorial Waves and Western Boundary Reflection in the Equatorial Indian Ocean Jin-ho Yoo(ICTP) Analysis of Intraseasonal & Interannual Variability of South Asian Summer Monsoon Using HMM Q. C. Zeng(IAP, China) Dust Storms: the Mechanism of Dust Emission and Their Predictions RonghuaZhang (UMCP)Mechanisms for Decadal Changes in El Nino/southern Oscillation (ENSO) Freshwater Flux - Induced Oceanic Feedback in a Hybrid Coupled Model of the Tropical Pacific

  36. Revolutionizing Climate Modeling 2008 World Modeling Summit Outcome - Requirement for Climate Change Modeling: Dedicated High-End Computing and International Collaboration Apologies to Eugene Delacroix

  37. The Athena Project

  38. The Athena Project • NSF impetus: Supercomputer availability and interest in outcome of 2008 World Modeling Summit • COLA role: formed and led an international collaboration involving over 30 peoplein 6 groupson 3 continents • Hypothesis: Exploring high spatial resolution and process-resolving models can dramatically alter simulation of climate • Two state-of-the-art global AGCMs at the highest possible spatial resolution • Dedicated supercomputerat NICS for Oct’09 – Mar’10 • Data ~900 TB total • Long term - model output data will be invaluable for large community of climate scientists (unprecedented resolution and simulation duration) and computational scientists (lessons learned from running dedicated production at nearly petascale)

  39. Collaborating Groups • COLA - Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, USA (NSF-funded) • ECMWF - European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts, UK • JAMSTEC - Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Research Institute for Global Change, Japan • University of Tokyo, Japan • NICS - National Institute for Computational Sciences, USA (NSF-funded) • Cray Inc. Codes • NICAM: NonhydrostaticIcosahedral Atmospheric Model • IFS: ECMWF Integrated Forecast System Supercomputers • Athena: Cray XT4 - 4512 quad-core Opteron nodes (18048) • #30 on Top500 list (November 2009) – dedicated Oct’09 – Mar’10 • Kraken: Cray XT5 - 8256 dual hex-core Opteron nodes (99072) • #3 on Top500 list (November 2009) – allocation of 5M SUs

  40. ECMWF Mats Hamrud Thomas Jung Martin Miller Tim Palmer (co-PI) Peter Towers Nils Wedi NICS Phil Andrews (co-PI) Troy Baer Matt Ezell Christian Halloy Dwayne John Bruce Loftis Kwai Wong Cray Pete Johnsen Per Nyberg JAMSTEC/U. Tokyo Chihiro Kodama Masaki Satoh (co-PI, U. Tokyo) Hirofumi Tomita (co-PI, JAMSTEC) Yohei Yamada NSF AGS: Jay Fein OCI: Steve Meacham, Rob Pennington COLA Many Thanks To … • DeepthiAchutavarier • Jennifer Adams • Eric Altshuler • Ben Cash • Paul Dirmeyer • Bohua Huang • Emilia Jin • Jim Kinter (PI) • Larry Marx • Julia Manganello • Cristiana Stan • Tom Wakefield

  41. Athena Experiments

  42. Instantaneous Blocking Frequency (DJFM) 1960-2007

  43. Today and Tomorrow … • DelSole: Multi-Decadal Predictability Predictability Framework • Huang: Atlantic MOC Decadal Predictability • Lu: Hadley Cell and Storm Track Theory Changing Climate • Krish/Deepthi: Monsoon Studies I-S-I Predictability • Dirmeyer/Guo: Land-Atmosphere Interactions Pred. of Total Climate System • Schneider: North Atlantic Variability Predictability Framework • Wakefield: COLA Facilities Facilities • Doty/Adams: GrADS and the Software Stack GrADS • Marx: Data Management Challenges Modeling • Cash: Project Athena Toward Process-Resolving Models • Stan: Cloud Processes and Climate Toward Process-Resolving Models • Straus/Klinger/Kinter/Shukla: Outreach Broader Impacts

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