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FROM SCENARIOS TO MANAGEMENT CLASSES: ECOLOGICAL COMPONENT DEMONSTRATION Presented by: Delana Louw (Rivers for Africa) 26 November 2013. NWRCS integrated steps. ECOLOGICAL CONSEQUENCES TO SCENARIOS. Determining ecological consequences of scenarios.

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slide1

FROM SCENARIOS TO MANAGEMENT CLASSES:

ECOLOGICAL COMPONENT DEMONSTRATION

Presented by: Delana Louw (Rivers for Africa)

26 November 2013

slide2

NWRCS integrated steps

ECOLOGICAL CONSEQUENCES TO SCENARIOS

slide3

Determining ecological consequences of scenarios

  • Need to answer the ‘what if’ questions
  • Express in terms of change in Ecological Category
  • Detailed process to predict changes in all the biophysical components per site and per scenario.
  • Then to integrate and demonstrate in systems context
  • Include in MC DSS process
slide4

Determining ecological consequences of scenarios

Geomorphology

Geomorphology

Physico-chemical

Physico-chemical

Fish

Fish

Macroinvertebrates

Macroinvertebrates

Consequences

Consequences

Riparian vegetation

Riparian vegetation

Model scenarios

PREDICT CONSEQUENCES

ECOSTATUS PES

Provide Ecological Categories for each of components and PES

EWRs for PES and REC

Above process undertaken for:

Each EWR site &

Each scenario

THEN INTEGRATED (USING A WEIGHTED SYSTEM) TO PROVIDE A SYSTEMS CONSEQUENCE

slide5

Typical water resource system – status quo

Small Dams

SFRs

Trout farming, recreation, dry-land agric

Forestry

Releases down river for irrigation, urban and industrial

Irrigation from canal

Rural

Irrigation

Gorge, protected area

Rural

Rural: Subsistence, settlements

Nature Reserve

Key biophysical sites (EWR sites)

Desktop biophysical sites

Irrigation

Irrigation. Town at estuary, industrial (canal & pipeline)

Industrial

Urban

Estuary

slide6

EcoClassification

1

Small Dams

REC D

PES E

SFRs

2

REC B

PES B

3

4

REC D

PES D

REC C

PES C

Rural

5

6

Irrigation

PES B

REC B

REC B

PES B/C

Rural

Nature Reserve

7

Irrigation

REC C

River PES C

8

Industrial

Estuary PES: E

Urban

REC D

Estuary

slide9

ECOLOGICAL CONSEQUENCES

1

SFRs

Small Dams

3

Sc B and C achieve the REC as they both include EWR releases and no unseasonal releases. Sc D shows some improvement

All Sc maintain REC except for Sc A. Issues are no EWR releases, unseasonal releases DS.

Rural

5

Irrigation

Rural

Only Sc B and C achieves the REC as consist of removing of effluent

Nature Reserve

7

Irrigation

8

All Sc maintain REC except for Sc A. Issues are no EWR releases, unseasonal releases DS.

Industrial

Urban

Estuary

slide10

Ecological protection relative to REC

1

Sc B, C

Sc B, C

Sc B, C, D

Sc B, C, D

Sc B, C

Sc D

Sc A

!

Sc A

Sc B, C

Sc D

Sc A

Sc A, D

Degree to which ecological objectives (REC) are met

Sc A

0

EWR 3 EWR 5 EWR 7 EST

System