The State of the Church in Kentucky 1990-2000 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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  1. The State of the Churchin Kentucky1990-2000 Dave Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

  2. This is a Sample PresentationIt’s purpose is to give you an idea of what is happening to the Christian church in Kentucky, and what the complete “State of the Church in Kentucky” Powerpoint looks like. The goal is to encourage pastors and church lay leaders to view and discuss together the missional challenges in Kentucky that the Church faces. The complete Powerpoint is $14.95 and is available for immediate download athttp://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UKY20.htm © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

  3. In 1996, polls taken immediately after the Presidential election revealed that 58% of people claimed they had voted, when in reality only 49% actually did. This is called the Halo Effect. People tend to over-inflate their participation in activities that create acceptability within their social group. For many decades, pollsters such as Gallup and Barna have reported that around 45% of Americans attend church every Sunday. But there is a religious Halo Effect. Actual attendance counts have shown that the percentage of people attending church on any given weekend is much lower than was previously thought. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

  4. The Intent of this presentation is to answer and then expand on two key questions: “How Many People Really Attend Church in Kentucky Every Week?” “Is the Christian Church Going Forwards or Backwards in Influence in Kentucky?” As the data is analyzed county by county assessing a number of factors, a comprehensive picture of the State of the Church in Kentucky will begin to take shape. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

  5. This study uses weekend church attendance as a more reliable and more immediate snapshot of Christian influence than membership. The following map shows the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend in all 50 states in 2000. Kentucky has an attendance percentage (22.1%) that is higher than the average for the nation (18.7%). © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

  6. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

  7. The Next Map shows the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend in 2000 for each county in Kentucky. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

  8. 19.7% 20.5% 21.0% Campbell Boone Kenton 41.6% 25.8% 30.8% 15.8% Gallatin 21.3% 21.4% Pendleton 16.3% Bracken Carroll 18.8% Grant Mason Trimble 23.5% 16.8% 13.2% Greenup 17.2% Lewis Robertson Owen 32.8% 14.2% 23.6% Henry 24.8% Harrison 18.8% 28.5% Oldham 20.1% Boyd Fleming Carter Nicholas 23.8% 21.1% 11.3% Scott 24.3% 23.3% 19.4% Franklin Bourbon Rowan 9.3% Shelby Jefferson 34.1% Bath 23.4% Elliott 24.0% 19.3% 16.0% 25.8% 23.7% Lawrence 22.1% 11.3% Montgomery Spencer Fayette 14.4% Meade Woodford Anderson 15.8% Clark Bullitt 32.9% Menifee 32.0% 28.2% 19.8% 18.1% Morgan 24.6% 33.6% 21.3% 29.1% Jessamine 41.7% Johnson Hancock 14.6% 30.7% Mercer Powell Martin Breckinridge 21.0% 16.6% Henderson 19.8% Nelson 18.7% Washington 30.0% Wolfe Daviess 30.4% Hardin Madison 25.2% Estill Magoffin 22.9% Union 27.2% 65.3% Garrard Boyle 19.4% 20.1% Lee 13.1% Larue 30.3% Marion 22.4% 24.6% 21.2% McLean 20.2% Floyd Breathitt 14.1% Webster 29.1% Ohio Grayson Pike Lincoln 10.7% 18.3% 16.5% Jackson 19.1% 32.0% Owsley 22.5% 26.5% 21.9% Knott Hopkins Rockcastle Crittenden Taylor 18.3% 19.1% Casey Hart Green 19.7% 18.9% 55.2% 35.0% 16.3% Muhlenberg Perry 17.4% Livingston Butler 34.2% 21.6% Edmonson 9.4% 26.3% 28.1% 27.5% Caldwell Clay Laurel Pulaski Letcher Leslie 23.9% Adair Ballard McCracken 27.6% Kentucky Counties 2000 Percentage of Population at Worship in Christian Churches on a Given Weekend Blue = Lowest Rose = Middle Beige = Highest 32.9% 22.5% 20.6% Lyon Metcalfe Russell 10.6% Warren 20.0% 43.0% 11.3% Barren 22.5% 27.9% 19.3% 25.0% Marshall Christian 34.8% Knox Carlisle 17.7% 23.5% 26.8% Logan 26.2% 19.5% Todd 24.4% 21.1% Harlan Trigg 28.7% 33.9% Wayne Cumberland Allen Whitley Bell McCreary Simpson Clinton 32.1% Monroe Graves 24.0% 28.4% Hickman Calloway Fulton 0.0% to 19.8% 19.8% to 25.8% 25.8% to 66.3%

  9. The Next 2 Maps show the population numbers for each county in Kentucky. The first map shows the population of each county. The second map shows the growth or decline in population for each county from 1990 - 2000. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

  10. 88,616 85,991 151,464 Campbell Boone Kenton 7,870 14,390 8,279 10,155 Gallatin 22,384 18,212 Pendleton 8,125 Bracken Carroll 36,891 Grant Mason Trimble 14,092 2,266 10,547 Greenup 15,060 Lewis Robertson Owen 17,983 46,178 49,752 Henry 13,792 Harrison 26,889 6,813 Oldham 33,061 Boyd Fleming Carter Nicholas 47,687 19,360 22,094 Scott 693,604 33,337 11,085 Franklin Bourbon Rowan 6,748 Jefferson Shelby 15,569 Bath 22,554 Elliott 11,766 260,512 26,349 23,208 19,111 Lawrence 33,144 61,236 Montgomery Spencer Fayette 6,556 Meade Woodford Anderson 13,948 Clark Bullitt 39,041 Menifee 23,445 8,392 20,817 13,237 Morgan 13,332 18,648 44,829 37,477 Jessamine 10,916 Johnson Hancock 7,065 91,545 Mercer Powell Martin Breckinridge 94,174 65,514 Henderson 15,307 Nelson 17,080 Washington 15,637 Wolfe Daviess 14,792 Hardin Madison 27,697 Estill Magoffin 7,916 Union 13,373 9,938 Garrard Boyle 16,800 42,441 Lee 16,100 Larue 14,120 Marion 22,916 24,053 68,736 McLean 23,361 Floyd Breathitt 13,495 Webster 4,858 Ohio Grayson Pike Lincoln 17,649 46,519 16,582 Jackson 9,384 22,927 Owsley 15,447 17,445 11,518 Knott Hopkins Rockcastle Crittenden Taylor 31,839 29,390 Casey Hart 13,010 Green 9,804 11,644 13,060 24,556 Muhlenberg Perry 52,715 Livingston Butler 56,217 25,277 Edmonson 12,401 17,244 8,286 30,125 Caldwell Clay Laurel Pulaski Letcher Leslie 8,080 Adair Ballard McCracken 10,037 16,315 92,522 38,033 Lyon Metcalfe Russell 70,872 Warren 72,265 5,351 31,795 Barren 26,573 11,971 33,202 12,597 Marshall Christian 19,923 Knox Carlisle 17,800 7,147 35,865 Logan 30,060 Todd 12,578 16,405 9,634 Harlan Trigg 11,756 37,028 Wayne Allen Cumberland Whitley Bell McCreary Simpson Clinton 5,262 Monroe Graves 34,177 7,752 Hickman Calloway Fulton Kentucky Counties 2000 Population 0 to 13,792 13,792 to 26,573 26,573 to 693,605

  11. Complete Presentation hasMap of 2000 Population Growth for Each County

  12. The Next 2 Slides show the ethnicity of Kentucky in 1990 and 2000. The third slide shows the growth or decline in the percentage of the population for each ethnic group. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

  13. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

  14. Complete Presentation hasGraph of 2000 Ethnicity

  15. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

  16. The Next Graph shows the attendance numbers for the churches in Kentucky in 1990 and 2000. Evangelicals have grown in attendance, while Catholics and the mainline have declined. Unfortunately, as overall worship attendance has slowly increased, the population has grown. A more reliable standard for evaluating increasing or declining influence is the percentage of the population attending church on any given weekend, shown in the second graph. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

  17. © 2004 by David T. Olson

  18. Complete Presentation hasGraph of 1990 & 2000 Worship Percentage by Category

  19. The Next Graph is a Pie graph visualizing the percentage of the population at churches in each category in 2000. The “Absent” category indicates the percentage of the population that is not worshipping at a Christian church on any given weekend. The second graph shows the percentage gain or decline for each category in Kentucky in 1990 and 2000. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

  20. © 2004 by David T. Olson

  21. © 2004 by David T. Olson

  22. The 2 Next Charts show the relative strength of the 8 major denominational groups in Kentucky. The Pie Chart shows the strength of the Baptist church in Kentucky, followed by the Catholic and Christian churches. The second chart shows that with the exception of the Pentecostals, denominations have declined faster than population growth. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

  23. Complete Presentation hasPie Chart of 2000 Attendance by Denominational Families

  24. Complete Presentation hasBar Graph of 1990 & 2000 Attendance by Denominational Families

  25. The Next Chart shows the 1990 & 2000 average church attendance by group for both this state and the nation. The second chart shows the 1990 & 2000 population per church for this state and the nation. Among states in 2000, Arkansas has the lowest population per church with 411 people per church, Utah is the highest at 4,586 people per church. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

  26. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

  27. Complete Presentation hasBar Graph of 1990 & 2000 Population per Church for State and Nation

  28. The Next 3 Maps show the attendance percentages for the Evangelical, Catholic and Mainline churches in each county in Kentucky in 2000. Notice the relative weakness of the Catholic church in the southern half of the state. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

  29. Complete Presentation hasState Map of 2000 Evangelical Attendance Percentage for each County

  30. Complete Presentation hasState Map of 2000 Mainline Attendance Percentage for each County

  31. 11.3% 8.2% 11.0% Campbell Boone Kenton 1.7% 1.6% 3.6% 2.0% Gallatin 1.0% 2.6% Pendleton 0.1% Bracken Carroll 0.0% Grant Mason Trimble 0.1% 0.9% Greenup 0.4% Lewis Robertson Owen 1.5% 8.1% 1.6% Henry 0.5% Harrison 0.3% 0.9% Oldham 1.9% Boyd Fleming Carter Nicholas 2.2% 2.7% 1.0% Scott 8.5% 1.5% 0.2% Franklin Bourbon Rowan Jefferson Shelby 0.5% Bath 0.6% Elliott 1.7% 4.1% 6.8% 3.1% 1.6% Lawrence 1.1% 1.9% Montgomery Spencer Fayette 0.0% Meade Woodford Anderson 0.3% Clark Bullitt 1.3% Menifee 0.6% 4.2% 1.5% 0.4% Morgan 0.1% 7.8% 5.6% 12.6% Jessamine 18.0% Johnson Hancock 0.2% 11.9% Mercer Powell Martin Breckinridge 3.7% 1.3% Henderson 0.4% Nelson 0.3% Washington 12.8% Wolfe Daviess 0.7% Hardin Madison 2.4% Estill Magoffin 0.9% Union 2.5% 33.9% Garrard Boyle 0.7% 0.4% Lee 0.2% Larue 0.7% Marion 0.6% 3.5% 0.3% McLean 0.3% Floyd Breathitt 0.3% Webster 0.2% Ohio Grayson Pike Lincoln 1.5% 0.2% Jackson 1.0% 1.9% Owsley 0.8% 0.3% 0.3% Knott Hopkins Rockcastle Crittenden Taylor 0.4% 0.5% Casey Hart 0.3% Green 0.4% 0.7% 0.9% 0.2% Muhlenberg Perry 0.5% Livingston Butler 0.7% 0.2% Edmonson 0.0% 0.3% 1.6% 9.2% Caldwell Clay Laurel Pulaski Letcher Leslie 1.3% Adair Ballard McCracken 0.9% Kentucky Counties 2000 Percentage of Population at Worship in Mainline Churches on a Given Weekend Blue = Lowest Rose = Middle Beige = Highest 0.3% 2.2% 0.3% Lyon Metcalfe Russell 0.5% Warren 1.4% 2.4% 0.1% Barren 1.0% 0.7% 0.4% 1.5% Marshall Christian 0.6% Knox Carlisle 0.3% 0.7% 1.3% Logan 0.6% Todd 0.3% 0.8% 0.4% Harlan Trigg 0.5% 4.0% Wayne Allen Cumberland Whitley Bell McCreary Simpson Clinton 3.2% Monroe Graves 1.3% 2.2% Hickman Calloway Fulton 0.0% to 1.0% 1.0% to 2.0% 2.0% to 34.9% No data

  32. The Next Map shows the growth or decline in the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend from 1990 to 2000 for each county. 40 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 80 counties declined. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

  33. Complete Presentation hasState Map of 1990 - 2000 Christian Church Attendance Percentage Increase or Declinefor each County

  34. The Next 3 Maps show the growth or decline of attendance percentages for the Evangelical, Catholic and Mainline churches in each county in Kentucky between 1990 and 2000. For evangelicals, 44 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 76 counties declined. For mainline churches, 21 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 99 counties declined. For Catholics, 53 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 64 counties declined. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

  35. Complete Presentation hasState Map of 1990 - 2000 Evangelical Attendance Percentage Increase or Declinefor each County

  36. Complete Presentation hasState Map of 1990 - 2000 Mainline Attendance Percentage Increase or Declinefor each County

  37. -21.8% 9.0% -11.2% Campbell Boone Kenton 63.1% -33.2% -20.0% 15.3% Gallatin -33.3% -64.7% Pendleton -21.1% Bracken Carroll 10.4% Grant Mason Trimble -51.1% 127.5% Greenup -27.2% Lewis Robertson Owen -4.9% 142.0% 14.0% Henry -11.0% Harrison 0.3% 9.4% Oldham -20.0% Boyd Fleming Carter Nicholas 1.8% 10.1% 2.1% Scott -13.8% 99.8% -3.1% Franklin Bourbon Rowan Jefferson Shelby -0.3% Bath -3.9% Elliott 104.4% -4.1% 8.4% -4.7% -15.5% Lawrence -1.4% -44.7% Montgomery Spencer Fayette -100.0% Meade Woodford Anderson -7.4% Clark Bullitt -13.4% Menifee 9.9% -47.6% 2.0% -2.1% Morgan 8.7% -8.9% 3.2% -1.1% Jessamine 17.2% Johnson Hancock 2.0% -18.3% Mercer Powell Martin Breckinridge 36.8% 6.4% Henderson 5.8% Nelson 1.3% Washington -13.0% Wolfe Daviess -13.2% Hardin Madison 2.6% Estill Magoffin 3.9% Union 219.2% -11.0% Garrard Boyle -51.9% 13.8% Lee 8.1% Larue -1.4% Marion -43.0% -42.1% 17.1% McLean -4.9% Floyd Breathitt -1.8% Webster 14.9% Ohio Grayson Pike Lincoln -18.7% -1.0% Jackson -5.0% 15.4% Owsley -38.0% -2.0% -16.3% Knott Hopkins Rockcastle Crittenden Taylor -17.9% 14.2% Casey Hart 15.4% Green 68.1% -32.6% 120.9% -1.8% Muhlenberg Perry -8.7% Livingston Butler -2.4% 18.4% Edmonson -100.0% 68.9% -10.1% -22.1% Caldwell Clay Laurel Pulaski Letcher Leslie 25.2% Adair Ballard McCracken 353.7% Kentucky Counties 1990 - 2000 Growth or Decline in Percentage of the Population at Worship in Catholic Churches on a Given Weekend Blue = Decline Rose = Growth 17.0% -8.9% 61.2% Lyon Metcalfe Russell -30.8% Warren 22.5% -39.9% 3.5% Barren -17.1% -9.8% 22.1% 4.2% Marshall Christian -2.8% Knox Carlisle -36.1% 80.0% 3.0% Logan 16.2% Todd 10.4% -27.6% 30.9% Harlan Trigg 254.0% -24.7% Wayne Allen Cumberland Whitley Bell McCreary Simpson Clinton -20.4% Monroe Graves -6.7% -7.8% Hickman Calloway Fulton Decline Growth No data

  38. The Final Chart shows the net gain in the number of churches in Kentucky in the past decade. There was a net gain of 174 churches. However, 762 churches were needed to keep up with population growth from 1990 - 2000. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

  39. © 2004 by David T. Olson

  40. The State of the Church in Kentucky . . . • The Evangelical church in Kentucky has made some progress over the last decade. There is an increasing number of Evangelical churches and church attendance has grown nearly fast enough to keep up with population growth. • The percentage of the population attending church has been declining across the board. This resulted in a 5.6% loss in the state-wide percentage of the population that attended church between 1990 and 2000. • A major factor in the overall decline is the insufficient net gain in the number of churches in Kentucky. While Evangelical denominations in Kentucky had a net gain of 291 churches, more new churches need to be started to keep up with population growth. Five hundred and ninety-one additional churches needed to have been started in the previous decade to compensate for the decline in percentage attendance. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

  41. For More Information . . . • Please go to www.theamericanchurch.org for additional information on the American Church. • 12 Surprising Facts about the American Church is available athttp://www.theamericanchurch.org/12supm.htm • The complete Kentucky Powerpoint presentation is available athttp://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UKY20.htm • The Complete Louisville Powerpoint presentation is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Louisville.htm • A Combo Pack (12 Surprising Facts, Kentucky and Louisville Powerpoints) is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/combo/KY0.htm © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

  42. Information on the Information • The spiritual health of churches is multifaceted, and is obviously much more complex than an attendance trend can portray. However, following the example of St. Luke in the Book of Acts, who used the number of people who showed up at various events as a sign documenting the health and growth of the early church, I would suggest that attendance is the single most helpful indicator of health, growth and decline. • Information has been compiled only for orthodox Christian groups – Protestant, Catholic and Orthodox. The Mormons, Jehovah Witnesses, Unitarian-Universalists and the International Churches of Christ have not been included. In addition, information about non-Christian groups has not been compiled. • African American denominations publish very little that is statistical – often not even a list of current churches. This study used data from the 1990 Glenmary study on Black Baptist estimates and AME Zion churches, the average African American worship attendance (from the Barna Research Group), and a statistical model based on the population of African Americans in each county in 1990 and 2000. These were combined to come up with as accurate an estimate as possible. • Independent church data is almost impossible to obtain. (There are actually fewer totally independent churches than is assumed. Most are part of some voluntary association, which typically keeps some records.) Data from the 1990 & 2000 Glenmary study on larger Independent churches (limited to over 300 in attendance) was used along with a statistical model to estimate the attendance at smaller independent churches. • In Catholic churches, the definition of what constitutes membership varies with diocese and church, making numbers sometimes inconsistent from state to state and county to county. In addition to actual mass counts from 1/3rd of Catholic parishes, membership information has been merged with attendance patterns from similar dioceses based on the size of the diocese and the region in which it is located. • Orthodox Churches are included in Totals, but not included as a separate group because of smallness of size nationwide. Division into Evangelical and Mainline categories is based on the division by the Glenmary Study. • This study only looks at how many people attend a Christian church on any given Sunday. The term ‘regular attender’ can be designated to mean someone who attends a Christian church on a consistent basis. Using a simple definition for ‘regular attender’ (attends at least 3 out of every 8 Sundays), between 23% and 25% of Americans would fit this category. Adding ‘regular attenders’ of non-orthodox christian churches and other religions to the totals would increase the percentage to 26% – 28%. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

  43. This Presentation is based on a nationwide study of American church attendance, as reported by churches and denominations. The database currently has average worship attendances for each of the last 10 years for over 170,000 individual churches. It also uses supplementary information (actual membership numbers correlated with accurate membership to attendance ratios) to project the attendances of all other denominational and independent churches. All told, accurate information is provided for all 300,000 orthodox Christian churches.1 1 This presentation looks only at people attending orthodox Christian churches. Approximately 3 million people attend non-orthodox Christian churches, and perhaps 3 million attend a religious service of another religion. Those ‘houses of worship’ would add another 35,000 churches in the United States and increase the 2000 percentage to 20.5%. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

  44. For More Information . . . • Presentations such as this are available for the largest 100 metropolitan areas, for each state and for the nation as a whole, as well as other presentations to show what is happening in the American church. Presentations are available either by direct download, CD or print. Please go to www.theamericanchurch.org for ordering information. • To Contact Dave Olson, please email him at DaveTOlson@aol.com. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use