Chapter 13 Voting and Elections

1. Chapter 13Voting and Elections 

2. Voting Behavior • Voting is a form of conventional political participation. • Well-accepted, moderate forms • Unconventional political participation • Unusual or extreme measures: protests, boycotts, picketing • Turnout is the proportion of electorate who votes. • 40% vote regularly, 25% occasionally, 35% rarely or never • Italy, Australia, Sweden – >70% • States regulate voter eligibility.

3. Voting Behavior • Education • More larnin’, more voting’ • Registration is seen as easier • Voting is perceived to be effective

4. Voting Behavior • Wealth • System works weal for the wealthy • Voting seen as effective • Results directly effect personal & business finance • Relatively class-less parties

5. Voting Behavior • Age • 26th Amendment 18-24 58% vote • Mobile, no roots, hassle to register • But, CA, 18’s vote as much as rest of population • 30+ votes more • 70+ votes less

6. Voting Behavior • Gender • 19th Amendment • Women are majority of voters

7. Voting Behavior • Race • Whites vote more than minorities • Income? Education? History? • VRA 1965 • Bans anything that limits access to voting • Literacy tests “Write every other word in this first line and print every third word in same line (original type smaller and first line ended at comma) but capitalize the fifth word that you write.”   • Feds monitor elections Shelby County v. Holder

8. Voting Behavior • Race (cont.) • Hispanics, Latinas/Latinos (or, Latins) • CO, NV, NM • ‘04 voting rates White 67% Black 60% Hispanic 44% • Diverse group –time here, income • country of origin - Puerto Rico, can vote? • Cuba, Republican; Mexico, Democrat • History with colonialism – sim. • Political processes – diff.

9. Voting Behavior • Groups • Trade, professional, civic, unions • Religion • Community involvement • Members exposed to party requests • Skills relevant • Unions increase # of poor, less educated who vote

10. Voting Behavior • Interest in politics • Party and issue activists only <5% • Only 10% contribute time or money to campaigns • Internet increases participation • SNS’s a game-changer

11. Why Is Turnout so Low? • ‘60 65% • ‘96 52% • ‘00 54% • ‘08 62% • ‘12 58%

12. Why Is Turnout so Low? • Too busy • School • Work • Excuses • Probably something else – apathy, ignorance

13. Why Is Turnout so Low? • Registration is a pain • Once registered, high percentages do vote • Requires effort, when it could be automatic • Election day registration helps, especially with poor and young voters • National Voter Registration Act (Motor Voter) ‘93 • Requires states to provide registration at or through: • Drivers’ license facility • Public agencies (military recruitment offices) • mail

14. Why Is Turnout so Low? • Difficult absentee process – must apply in person • Too Many Elections! • Twice as many as Europe • 2-year terms • Federalism • Primaries

15. Why Is Turnout so Low? • Voter attitudes • No issues worth effort (!), status quo OK, uncontested elections • Quality of campaigns • Divided government (2% drop) • Compulsory voting? • Parties • Parties have become bureaucratic, distanced from people • GOTV efforts still inadequate

16. Ways to Improve Voter Turnout • Easier registration = more voting • Same day, automatic, register remotely, satellite locations, mail-in • Easier voting = more voting • Any day, satellite locations, mail-in • Taxpayers and voting administrators LOVE these • Motor Voter has increased voting 5-9%

17. Patterns in Vote Choice • Party identification • Dem’s vote Dem, Rep’s vote Rep (duh) • BUT lotsnlotsa ticket splitting • 55% PREFER divided government • Don’t trust parties? Non-partisanship? Usual suspects? • Race & Ethnicity • Whites trending Republican, Blacks Democrat • ‘08 95% Obama 67% Hispanics • Chinese-American, Dem., Vietnamese American, Rep.

18. Patterns in Vote Choice • Gender • Gender gap 5-7% • Clinton vs Obama • No basis to claim men vote for men, women vote for women

19. Patterns in Vote Choice • Religion • Jewish voters Rep. support for Israel, otherwise Dem. • Catholics gone from Dem. To Rep., lately supported the winner • Protestants ‘04 59% Bush, 40% Kerry • Race • Evangelical 80% Bush, mainline 54% Bush • Income – middle class decides • Ideology – duh

20. Patterns in Vote Choice • Issues • Economy – retrospective judgement, prospective judgement • 2008 – economic crisis, war • Obama / McCain • Terrorism, 86% McCain • But only 9% thought it was an important issue

21. Purposes of Elections • Legitimize government, even in authoritarian systems. • Organize government. • Choose issue and policy priorities. • Electorate gives winners a mandate.

22. Types of Elections • Primary elections can be open or closed. • Crossover voting or raiding can occur in open primaries. • Runoff primaries held if no candidate wins a majority. • General elections determine who will fill public offices. • Ballot measures: initiative, referendum, and recall.

23. Presidential Elections • Delegates to convention chosen by election or caucus. • Elections may be winner-take-all (Rep.) or proportional (Dem.) • Caucuses are better for the party organization. • Meet in small groups (Iowa) • Elections allow for broader participation.

24. Primaries vs Caucuses • This is a caucus • This is the Caucasus This is… well, never mind…

25. Primaries vs Caucuses • Caucus used to be corrupt • Now they look a lot like a primary election • Primaries • a preliminary election to appoint delegates to a party conference or to select the candidates for a principal, especially presidential, election • Very democratic • usually select moderate – candidate who “can win” • “sophisticated voting” • “job interview”, test the candidates • But no chance to get information like in a caucus • Unfair scheduling • New Hampshire gets excessive media attention • Primaries test stamina, not competence

26. Front-loading • States want to schedule early • Many candidates chosen by February • Unfairly benefits front-runner • Must win the “invisible primary” • Internet eases this concern – Ron Paul, ’08, $6m in one day

27. Party Conventions • Each party has its own rules about delegates. • Democrats no longer subscribe to unit rule. • Delegates tied to candidate, except superdelegates. • Require representation of women and minorities. • Republicans do not bind delegates to candidate. • Media extensively cover happenings.

28. National Party Conventions • Used to be place for party compromise • Outcome is usually decided before the convention • Three factors reducing convention importance • #1. delegate selection • Party leaders out of the loop, increased popular influence • Unit rule abolished • Majority in a state could make every delegate vote for it’s candidate • Proportional selection • Most candidates have to be decided before convention • No freedom to wheel and deal • Many states passed these as laws, so Rep.’s do this too • Decreased democracy – superdelegates • delegates tend to be elites

29. Conventions • #1. Delegate selection (cont.) • Delegates reflect party constituencies • After ‘68, Dems mandated inclusion • ‘08, 35% minorities, 50% women • Reps, not so much • #2. Candidates and issues • Still hash out platform, debate direction, but… • The usual suspects • #3. News media • Dog and pony show • Primetime TV • More show than substance? • Maybe replace with direct primaries?

30. Electoral College • Representatives from each state who select president. • Electors equivalent to senators plus representatives. • Framers favored system to remove power from people. • Originally president and vice president selected alone. • Changed after Twelfth Amendment. • 1876 and 2000 elections demonstrate concerns.

31. Reforming the Electoral College • Three major proposals have been made. • Select the president by popular vote. • Each congressional district has a vote. • Keep the College, abolish the electors.

32. Congressional Elections • In Congress, incumbency has its advantages. • Support from a paid staff. • Media and travel budgets. • “Scaring off” other challengers. • Redistricting and gerrymandering to protect incumbents.

33. Why Incumbents Lose • Redistricting can pit incumbents against one another. • Scandals. • Presidential coattails. • Midterm elections; president’s party usually loses seats.

34. 2008 Congressional Elections • Democrats advantaged by momentum and money. • Used these to make gains in House and Senate. • Victories in South and West were particularly notable.

35. Reforming the Electoral Process • End front-loading with regional primaries. • Even the playing field with new campaign finance laws. • Increase turnout with online voting or voting by mail. • Make voting more accessible with a modern ballot.

36. AV- Turnout of Eligible Voters  Back

37. Figure 13.1- South v. Non-South  Back

38. Figure 13.2- Why People Don’t Vote  Back

39. Figure 13.3- Registered Voters  Back

40. Figure 13.4- Front-loading  Back

41. Figure 13.5- Electoral College  Back

42. Figure 13.6- Gerrymandering  Back

43. Figure 13.7- Electronic Voting Machines  Back

44. Table 13.1- Voter Eligibility  Back

45. Table 13.2- Women at Conventions  Back

46. Table 13.3- Congressional Elections  Back

47. Table 13.4- Election Results  Back