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Project Analysis with Probability and Simulation Techniques

Learn how to analyze projects using probability and simulation techniques. Explore topics such as project life as a random variable, probability trees, Monte Carlo simulation, and probabilistic decision tree analysis. Includes case studies.

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Project Analysis with Probability and Simulation Techniques

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  1. EXAMPLE 12-1 Premixed-Concrete Plant Project continued on next slide

  2. EXAMPLE 12-1 (continued) Premixed-Concrete Plant Project

  3. EXAMPLE 12-2 Channel Enlargement for Flash Flood Control continued on next slide

  4. EXAMPLE 12-2 (continued) Channel Enlargement for Flash Flood Control

  5. EXAMPLE 12-3 Investing in Circuit Protection to Reduce Probability of Failure continued on next slide

  6. EXAMPLE 12-3 (continued) Investing in Circuit Protection to Reduce Probability of Failure

  7. EXAMPLE 12-4 Project Life as a Random Variable continued on next slide

  8. EXAMPLE 12-4 (continued) Project Life as a Random Variable continued on next slide

  9. EXAMPLE 12-4 (continued) Project Life as a Random Variable continued on next slide

  10. EXAMPLE 12-4 (continued) Project Life as a Random Variable

  11. EXAMPLE 12-5 Project Analysis Using a Probability Tree continued on next slide

  12. EXAMPLE 12-5 (continued) Project Analysis Using a Probability Tree continued on next slide

  13. EXAMPLE 12-5 (continued) Project Analysis Using a Probability Tree

  14. EXAMPLE 12-6 Annual Net Cash Flow as a Continuous Random Variable continued on next slide

  15. EXAMPLE 12-6 (continued) Annual Net Cash Flow as a Continuous Random Variable

  16. EXAMPLE 12-7 Probability of an Unfavorable Project Outcome

  17. EXAMPLE 12-8 Linear Combination of Independent Random Variables continued on next slide

  18. EXAMPLE 12-8 (continued) Linear Combination of Independent Random Variables continued on next slide

  19. EXAMPLE 12-8 (continued) Linear Combination of Independent Random Variables

  20. EXAMPLE 12-9 Project Analysis Using Monte Carlo Simulation continued on next slide

  21. EXAMPLE 12-9 (continued) Project Analysis Using Monte Carlo Simulation

  22. EXAMPLE 12-10 Probabilistic Decision Tree Analysis continued on next slide

  23. EXAMPLE 12-10 (continued) Probabilistic Decision Tree Analysis

  24. EXAMPLE 12-11 Hytech Industries continued on next slide

  25. EXAMPLE 12-11 (continued) Hytech Industries

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