The Welfare Monitoring System Program and the Need for Further Support

1. The Welfare Monitoring System Program and the Need for Further Support By Getachew Adem Head, Development Planning and Research Ministry of Finance & Economic Development (MOFED) May 21,2009

2. Outline of the Presentation Background to the Welfare Monitoring System Program (WMSP); The Role of the WMU of MOFED in the WMSP\ Objectives of the Welfare Monitoring System Program (WMSP); The Major Outputs of the WMSP; Trends in Aggregate Poverty Measures over the Decade (1995/96 to 2004/05); Lessons from the Implementation of the WMSP (the M&E Action Plan); Upcoming Challenges & the Need for Further Support

3. Background to the Welfare Monitoring System Program The Launching of the Comprehensive Economic Reform Program in 1992/93; Established with the intention of regularly monitoring and assessing the impact of the reform program on the poor; The System formally established in 1996 through financial support from the World Bank and Norwegian Grant; The two main actors have been and still are the WMU of MOFED and the CSA; CSA responsible for conducting Household Income Consumption Expenditure Surveys (HICES) and Welfare Monitoring Surveys (WMS); The WMU of MOFED has been mandated for the Analysis of HICES and WMS data sets collected by the CSA; Institutional Set up to oversee implementation of the the WMSP (Steering Committee, Technical Committee, Secretariat)

4. The Role of the WMU of MOFED in the WMSP The WMU of MOFED, as part of the DPRD of the MOFED, is entrusted with the coordination of the overall M&E system; The WMU is responsible for compiling and analysing survey-based data collected by the CSA and administrative information generated by sectoral M&E Systems in the preparation of the APR Reports on PASDEP and by extension MDGs implementation; The WMU is also responsible for coordinating and for commissioning pertinent research on poverty/welfare and dissemination of the findings; The DPRD (WMU) of MOFED is responsible for the preparation of Annual Progress Review (APR) Report which updates on poverty and welfare in Ethiopia as well as general reporting on progress in PASDEP/MDGs implementation of policies and programmes; Besides, the WMU has to rely on a variety of sources of data to fulfil its monitoring tasks; Moreover, as a key user, it has a key function in ensuring that the relevant data are collected for these purposes.

5. Objectives of the WMSP The overall objective is to provide the government with reliable mechanisms to measure the efficiency of those government actions and the effectiveness of public policies in achieving the objectives stated in its Five Year Development Plan entitled Plan for Accelerated and Sustained Development to End Poverty (PASDEP). It will set the basis for a transparent process by which the government and donors can undertake a shared appraisal of results and ensure smooth release of external budgetary support. The Specific objectives of the M&E system are: To ensure that the Government and other stakeholders have a good understanding of the nature and distribution of poverty in all its dimensions and are able to monitor changes in the level and incidence of poverty; To monitor the implementation of the actions contained in the the PASDEP and by extension the MDGs and identify problems as they emerge; To be able to assess whether implementation of the actions contained in the PASDEP and hence the MDGs is having the intended effect on poverty

6. The Major Outputs of the WMSP The 1995/96 HICES and WMS based poverty analysis Report entitled Poverty Situation of Ethiopia issued in March 1999. This helped produce the first ever income poverty indicators of national scope (sampled HHs for HICES =11441 and Sampled HHs for WMS=11569); The 1999/2000 HICES and WMS based poverty analysis Report entitled Development and Poverty Profile of Ethiopia issued in March 2002. The outcomes informed the formulation of Ethiopia’s first generation PRSP known as the Sustainable Development and Poverty Reduction Program (SDPRP) issued in August 2002;

7. ----Major Outputs The 2004/05 HICES and WMS based poverty analysis Report entitled Dynamics of Growth and Poverty Reduction in Ethiopia(1995/96 to 2004/05). Sample HHs for HICES increased to 21,900 in and for WMS to 33,000 in 2004/05.The outcomes of this analysis work informed the formulation of Ethiopia’s Five Year Development Plan (successor plan to the SDPRP) entitled Plan for Accelerated and Sustained Development to End Poverty (PASDEP). The Participatory Poverty Assessment (PPA) Study Report issued in 2005 The Annual Progress Review (APR) Reports of the then SDPRP and the now PASDEP (3 APRs of SDPRP plus 2 APRs of PASDEP); Studies such as the Poverty Mapping has been postponed for technical reasons (waiting for the 2007 Population and Housing census results). It is planned to be undertaken from the latter period of 2009 to the first half of 2010;

8. Trends in Aggregate Poverty Measures

9. Lessons from the Implementation of the WMSP The Formulation of the M&E Action Plan(2004/05 to 2008/09) jointly by the WMU of MOFED & the CSA based on the proposal entitled “Strengthening Data Collection Analysis and Dissemination on Poverty Monitoring and the MDGs” is currently under implementation through support from the DAG Pool Fund (continuation of the WB & NG supported WMSP); This, in turn, is expected to be extended up to 2011 through “Phase III of Donor Support to the PRSP Process”; Efforts made to complement outcomes from quantitative analysis (HICES & WMS) with outcomes from qualitative studies such as the 2004/05 PPA; The 2004/05 HICES & WMS outcomes triangulated with PPA results supplemented from other independent small scale surveys (Citizen’s Report Card and other small scale quantitative surveys) has helped in the conduct of determinants of poverty analysis work. This has been made an integral part of the 2004/05 HICES and WMS based poverty analysis report: “Dynamics of Growth and Poverty Reduction in Ethiopia(1995/96-2004/05)” and is a value added from the previous Poverty Profile Report;

10. ---Lessons Improved collaboration and working relationship between the CSA and the WMU of MOFED has helped refocus CSA’s data generation efforts; Improved coordination & utilization of administrative information to complement outcomes from HICES and WMS in the preparation of the Annual Progress Report of SDPRP implementation; The need for complementing outcomes of quantitative analysis with that of qualitative assessments; Partnership with Higher Education and Research Institutions (both Local and Foreign); This has helped improve timely availability of poverty analysis results & building in-house technical capacity; Dialogue between Government and stakeholders help restructure and refine the SDPRP now the PASDEP Policy Matrix;

11. Upcoming Challenges & the Need for Further Support The move to accelerate growth and bring about socio-economic transformation poses its own challenge to the M&E System (paradigm shifts such as diversification on small holders, growth corridors, diversification of income, scaling up on all fronts, SMED, Export Diversification,etc); All these call for the M&E System to be innovative & flexible to track and capture changes brought about by those shifts and there by create a positive environment for learning; This, for instance, calls for the conduct of small scale HICE surveys (at least once) in between the regular large scale HICE surveys conducted every five years; The on-going devolution and challenges to meet information requirements on poverty and welfare at sub-national level (woredas and kebeles); Poverty Mapping is part of the M&E Action Plan and is planned to be undertaken during 2008/09 to 2009/10(preparatory ground work is currently underway to launch the study in early 2010; Strengthening & Coordination of sect oral monitoring systems to feed in to the overall Welfare Monitoring System; How best to complement uses of poverty outcomes from small-scale quantitative surveys and those from surveys of National Scope? How best to complement uses of outcomes from quantitative surveys (such as HICES and WMS) with qualitative ones (PPA)? The need for further strengthening overall institutional coordination

12. Thank You