Europees Klimaat en Energie Beleid voor 2030/2050

1. EuropeesKlimaatenEnergieBeleidvoor 2030/2050 VIRA Jos Delbeke EUI (Florence)/KU Leuven Brussel, 24.5.2019

2. IPCC – Scientific consensus(5th Assessment 2013, 1.5°C Report 2018) • Warming of the climate systems is unequivocal and observed changes are unprecedented on scales of decades to millennia. • Human influence on the climate system is clear. • Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and changes to the atmosphere, land and oceans in all regions of the globe. • Limitclimate change to 2°Ccompared to pre-industriallevel

5. Global governance • 1992 – UN Framework Convention on Climate Change • Rio de Janeiro 'World Summit on SustainableDevelopment’ • ‘Common but differentiatedresponsibilities’ • 1997 – Kyoto Protocol • Action todaywouldcoveronlysome 12% of global emissions • Strongdividebetweendeveloped/developing countries • 2015 – Paris Agreement • 98% of global emissions (+/- 80% without US as of 2020?) • Recognition that the world has changed: emergingeconomies! • ‘New’ UN balance between top-down and bottom-up?

6. CO2 emissions 1990-2015 Fig 2.1

7. The Paris Agreement • Universal participation: • Developed and developing countries • Long-term target based on IPCC: • "well below 2C” • “… strive towards 1.5C" • Transparency and accountability • Robust common rules • 5 yearly reviews • Financial support to support the transition

8. Warming projections Fig 2.2

9. EU emissions 1990-2050Fig 1.2

10. EU Decoupling Fig 1.3

11. EU greenhouse gas emissions by sector, 1990-2030 (2030 projections “with existing measures") (Table 1.1)

12. Sectoral GHG 1990-2050Fig 3.1

13. 1. EU ETS Fig 4.2

14. ETS emissions down with 29% between 2005-2018 Fig 4.1

15. Non-ETS sectors Fig 5.1

16. 2. Effort Sharing Regulation Fig 5.9

17. Belgium: Effort Sharing Sectors, 1990-2020

18. Belgium: main problem is transport (totaal en per sector, 1990-2017, projectie van bestaand beleid tot 2030)

19. 3. RES development Fig 6.1

20. Global levelised cost of electricity Fig 6.2 Today’s strong business case for renewable power Source: IRENA

21. 4. A flexible European Electricity Market Boost wholesale market flexibility and provide clear price signals to facilitate the continuing penetration of renewable energies and ensure investments Enable active consumer participation and ensure that consumers are protected and benefit from progress in energy technologies Promote regional cooperation and provide a true European dimension to security of supply

22. 5. Energy efficiency Fig 6.3

23. EU CO2 standards for new passenger cars Target: 186g (1995), now 118g, 95g (2021), 59g (2030) (NECD) ‘Translated’ into a binding target per manufacturer Technologicallyneutral Tests more stringent (WLTP/real driving/EU oversight) (diesel scare) Flexibilities for cars lessthat 50g (EVs & hybrid) Penalties (EUR 95 per gCO2/km for each new car) Global technology competition in the making (industrial policy considerations)

24. EU CO2 standards for new passenger cars

25. The significant change in the European electricity mix EU power generation (net) by fuel (Twh) Source: PRIMES modelling, NTUA, E3M-Lab • Significant development of renewable energy (mostlysolar and wind), reaching up to 50% share • Decline of electricity generation from solid fuels • Gas-fired generation decreases until 2020, but increases thereafter

26. Lessons from EU climate policy experience • 1. All noses in the same direction • Global: Paris Agreement • Crucial role of EU Council (State/Government leaders) • 2. Gradual introduction • Start, modify, and tighten, but keep the direction consistently • 3. Everybody needs to be involved in the policy design • Distributive effectsneed to addressed • 4. A price on CO2 guides efficiency • First the lowhanging fruit … search for low-cost options • 5. Innovation is crucial but must berolled out in investments • In industry (RE, CCS, hydrogen, …) • In infrastructure