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Motor Carrier Industry Overview

Motor Carrier Industry Overview. April 2007 Tavio Headley Economist American Trucking Associations. ATA’s For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index . 2000=100 ; Through February 2007. Source: ATA. ATA’s For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index . Year-over-year Percent Change; Through February 2007. Source: ATA.

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Motor Carrier Industry Overview

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  1. Motor Carrier Industry Overview April 2007 Tavio Headley Economist American Trucking Associations

  2. ATA’s For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index 2000=100 ; Through February 2007 Source: ATA

  3. ATA’s For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index Year-over-year Percent Change; Through February 2007 Source: ATA

  4. For-Hire Trucking Volumes 2006 percent change Sources: ATA’s Trucking Activity Report & Monthly Truck Tonnage Report

  5. ATA’s Flatbed Freight Loads Index Year-over-year Percent Change; Through February 2007 Source: ATA

  6. 2007 Started Poorly Year-to-date percent change through February Sources: ATA’s Trucking Activity Report & AAR

  7. ATA’s For-Hire Truck Revenue Index 2000=100 ; Through February 2007 Costs: Engines Drivers Congestion Source: ATA

  8. ATA’s For-Hire Truck Revenue Index Year-over-year Percent Change; Through February 2007 Source: ATA

  9. Real Revenue per Mile 1980=100 In 2006, real revenue per mile was still 30 percent lower than in 1980. Source: ATA

  10. +31% Total Percent Increase 2005 to 2017 Billions of Tons +27% +21% +29% +79% +72% Source: U.S. Freight Transportation Forecast to…2017 Projected Growth in Freight Transportation Tonnage: 2005 to 2017

  11. Growth in the Commercial Truck Population Total Increase from 2005 to 2017; Millions of Trucks +40% +32% Sources: U.S. Freight Transportation Forecast to…2017 & ATA

  12. Trucking Capacity

  13. Growth in TL Fleet vs. Demand 2006 Increase Source: ATA’s Trucking Activity Report

  14. U.S. Class 8 Truck Sales ? Sources: WardsAuto.com and ATA

  15. Capacity Conclusions • Capacity likely to tighten throughout the year • Fundamentals still support tighter capacity (driver shortage) • 2007 Class 8 truck sales are expected to be significantly lower than 2006

  16. Drivers… The shortage continues and it is the #1 constraint to increasing capacity

  17. Today’s Driver Shortage:Long-haul Truckload Drivers Source: Global Insight, Inc. for ATA

  18. Line-Haul Driver Turnover Rates Source: ATA’s Trucking Activity Report

  19. TL Average Miles per Load 2006 percent change Source: ATA’s Trucking Activity Report

  20. Highway Congestion 1998All Vehicles

  21. Highway Congestion 2020All Vehicles

  22. Freight Corridors & Top 200 Bottlenecks: Cost to the Trucking Industry • 243 Million Hours Lost Annually • Cost $7.8 Billion/year • Physical bottlenecks account for 40% of congestion Source: FHWA

  23. Truckload Productivity:Index of Miles per Truck per Month: 2000 = 100 • Trucking productivity is slipping due to: • Congestion • Driver Home Time • Falling Average Length of Haul • Hours of Service Rule Changes Source: ATA

  24. Fuel Prices

  25. National On-Highway Average Diesel Fuel Price($/Gallon) Today: ≈ $2.84/gallon Sources: Department of Energy & ATA

  26. Diesel Prices Price per Gallon Forecasts Source: U.S. Department of Energy

  27. Trucking’s Annual Cost for Diesel(Billions of US$) Forecast Source: ATA

  28. Trucking Failures vs. the Price of Diesel Fuel Failures only includes fleets with at least five trucks Sources: A.G. Edwards & ATA

  29. 2007 Economic Outlook

  30. Real Gross Domestic Product Percent change from a year earlier Forecasts Sources: BEA & ATA

  31. Goods Producing Economy percent change from a year earlier Forecasts Sources: ATA

  32. Residential Investment Percent change from a year earlier Forecasts Sources: BEA & ATA

  33. Inventory Trends Total Supply Chain Inventory-to-Sales Ratio Source: Census Bureau

  34. Thanks! theadley@trucking.org

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