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Analyzing Import Prices of DNSJ and Export Prices of DNJPJT: Co-integration and Modeling

This study examines the behavior of import prices of DNSJ dark northern spring wheat in Japan from November 1975 to October 1981. By utilizing a range of statistical methods, including histograms, correlograms, and unit root tests, the analysis identifies key patterns in the time series data. It explores the relationship between DNSJ import prices and the export prices from Pacific ports to Japan (with lag adjustments), revealing their co-integrated nature. The study further delves into modeling price differences and validating results through diagnostic tests like the ARCH-LM test, ensuring robust analytical outcomes.

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Analyzing Import Prices of DNSJ and Export Prices of DNJPJT: Co-integration and Modeling

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  1. Lab Five

  2. Dark Northern Spring Wheat • Import price in dollars in Japan: dnsj

  3. Import Price !975:11 – 1981:10

  4. Identification • Trace • Histogram • Correlogram • Unit Root test

  5. Histogram

  6. First difference of DNSJ

  7. Histogram

  8. DNSPJT • Export price in Dollars from Pacific Ports to Japan (lagged one) Plus the freight rate (lagged two)

  9. Two random walks • But they do not drift away from one another • Difference = dnsj –dnspjt = japmminx

  10. Two random walks moving together

  11. Co-integrated time series

  12. Identifying their difference

  13. Histogram

  14. Modeling the Difference

  15. Validating the model

  16. Validating the Model

  17. ARCH LM Test

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