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This study examines the behavior of import prices of DNSJ dark northern spring wheat in Japan from November 1975 to October 1981. By utilizing a range of statistical methods, including histograms, correlograms, and unit root tests, the analysis identifies key patterns in the time series data. It explores the relationship between DNSJ import prices and the export prices from Pacific ports to Japan (with lag adjustments), revealing their co-integrated nature. The study further delves into modeling price differences and validating results through diagnostic tests like the ARCH-LM test, ensuring robust analytical outcomes.
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Dark Northern Spring Wheat • Import price in dollars in Japan: dnsj
Identification • Trace • Histogram • Correlogram • Unit Root test
DNSPJT • Export price in Dollars from Pacific Ports to Japan (lagged one) Plus the freight rate (lagged two)
Two random walks • But they do not drift away from one another • Difference = dnsj –dnspjt = japmminx