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The Future of Conservatism in America: Emphasizing Real World Politics

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The Future of Conservatism in America: Emphasizing Real World Politics by David Brady Hoover Institution and Stanford. National Greatness Conservatives. Anti-anti-government

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slide1
The Future of Conservatism in America:

Emphasizing Real World Politics

by

David Brady

Hoover Institution and Stanford

national greatness conservatives
National Greatness Conservatives

Anti-anti-government

Lincoln -- TR

Neoconservatism (Wilson)

(Big government conservatism)

(Borrow and spend conservatism)

paleo conservatives
Paleo-Conservatives

Isolationism

Protectionism

Nativism

Culture of Life

libertarian conservatives
Libertarian Conservatives

No Unconstitutional wars

No Nation-building

No attacks on civil liberties

No bail-outs

Abortion, Gay Marriage

Porous Borders

deemphasize social issues
Deemphasize Social Issues

“…the evangelical, right-wing, oogedy-boogedy branch of the GOP is what ails the conservative party and will continue to afflict and marginalize its constituents if reckoning doesn’t soon cometh. (Kathleen Parker)

“The lethal problem for Republicans is that while religion of a particular kind is central to their party today, it is also toxic to moderate, independent, suburban, young and, more inclusively, educated voters.” (Jeffrey Hart)

slide6

Not!

“…was it the religious right that conceived and executed the disastrous Iraq war? Did preachers deregulate Wall Street? Did evangelical leader James Dobson screw up [FEMA’s] response to Hurricane Katrina? Jack Abramoff—did he concoct his crooked lobbying schemes during long protest vigils outside abortion clinics?(Rod Dreher)

sam s club republicans
Sam’s Club Republicans

Times have changed

 working / lower middle class party

income security

family friendly

wage subsidies

tax reforms

2008 republican problems

2008 Republican Problems

Hispanic 66% +13

18-29 66 12

$100,000 > 49 8

Independent 52 3 (12)

Moderate 60 6 (7)

ancient warriors the civil rights gerontocracy

ANCIENT WARRIORS: “THE CIVIL RIGHTS GERONTOCRACY”

Andrew Young 76

John Lewis 68

Jesse Jackson 67

Al Sharpton 54

jackson v obama

JACKSON V. OBAMA

“generational shift”

“generation gap”

“generational jealousy”

“former big shot” v. “rising star”

“aging lion” v. “young cub”

“changing of the guard”

“torch is passed”

ancient warriors feminists

ANCIENT WARRIORS: FEMINISTS

Betty Friedan (died 2006) 79

Gloria Steinem 74

Eleanor Smeal 69

Kate Michelman 66

ancient warriors religious right

ANCIENT WARRIORS: RELIGIOUS RIGHT

Pat Robertson 77

Louis Sheldon 74

Jerry Falwell (died 2007) 73

James Dobson 71

Richard Land 61

ancient warriors conservatives

ANCIENT WARRIORS: CONSERVATIVES

Phyllis Schlafly 83

Richard Viguerie 74

Howard Phillips 67

Paul Weyrich 66

Grover Norquist 52

american generations strauss and howe
American Generations (Strauss and Howe)

Note: With the exception of “Younger -” and “Older -” Boomers, are the names conventionalized by Howe and Strauss’s book, Generations: Strauss, William & Howe, Neil. Generations: The History of America's Future, 1584 to 2069 (Perennial, 1992). As for “Younger Boomers” and “Older Boomers”, enough research has been done to suggest that the two decades of Baby Boomers are different enough to merit being divided into distinct generational groups. 2009 Census data has been fitting within these definitions.

slide17
The Federal Balance Sheet: 2011

Notes: U.S. household net worth from Federal Reserve, Balance Sheet of Households and nonprofit Organizations. Public debt from CBO, 2010 Long Term Budget Outlook. Unfunded liability statistics from 2010 Medicare Trustees Report.

slide18
Interest

Entitlements

Non-DefenseDiscretionary

Defense

slide19
The Entitlement State At a Glance (2009)
  • 58.9% of all households receive entitlement benefits
    • Virtually all households with seniors receive benefits
    • 46.5% of all households without seniors receive benefits
  • Average senior household receives $28,500
  • Average non-senior recipient household receives $13,700
  • More than half of children are growing up in households that receive entitlement benefits
slide21
Entitlement Reforms
  • Social Security: Slow Growth in Benefits for New Retirees
  • Medicare: Higher Copayments & More Choices
  • Medicaid & Other Welfare: Block Grants Plus Reforms
slide22
Initial Social Security Monthly Benefits

(in constant 2011 dollars)

71%

55%

40%

Current Age

* Average retired worker

slide24
The Road Well Traveled

2010 CBO Projection of Debt to GDP

150% in 2030

100% in 2023

74% in 2030

67% in 2011

69% in 2023

The Road Less Traveled

Projection of Debt to GDP with Reforms

slide25
Real benefits stay the same
  • Long term solvency achieved
  • Savings: $8.2 Trillion (Present Value)

Notes: Data derived from 2010 CBO Long Term Budget Outlook.

slide26
Coinsurance Rates to 40%
  • Reduced Premiums
  • NPV Savings: $16.1 Trillion (Infinite Horizon)

Status Quo: Low Coinsurance Rate/ High Premium

Alternative: Higher Coinsurance Rate/ Lower Premium

Notes: Data derived from 2010 CBO Long Term Budget Forecast and 2010 Medicare Trustees Report

slide27
Status Quo: Obama Care

Alternate: Repeal ObamaCare and 1 + MCPI Growth

NPV from Repealing Obama Care: $8.2 Trillion

NPV from Capping Medicaid Growth: $5.7 Trillion

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