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RTE Cereal Consumption Trends in the 90s What Sells Cereals and Where?. By Jim Eales. Goal. To examine the changes in cereal sales across regions of the US in the 90s by the nutritional content of the cereals. Grocery Marketing Data 1990.

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Presentation Transcript
slide2
Goal
  • To examine the changes in cereal sales across regions of the US in the 90s by the nutritional content of the cereals.
grocery marketing data 1990
Grocery Marketing Data 1990
  • Sales Area Marketing, Inc (SAMI), a former product-tracking services division of Arbitron.
  • Warehouse withdrawals
  • 54 Markets made up of US counties
  • Covers 85% of US branded grocery sales
  • Indices measuring sales per household for 160 RTE Cereals
grocery marketing data 1999
Grocery Marketing Data 1999
  • Nielsen Homescan data from 7195 households 6068 of which are in Nielsen “Scantrack” Markets.
  • Counties making up each Nielsen Scantrack Market are given in Market Scope. Fortunately, our library had the 1999 edition.
  • Each household’s purchases from various product “modules” including RTE Cereal can be used to calculate sales per household indices for each market.
methods
Methods
  • Determined cereals which I could identify as common to both sets of data.
  • Turned out to be 77 cereals, that I could identify. There are probably others.
problem
Problem
  • Changes in the sales indexes from 1990 to 1999 were too big to be believed.
  • Some of the Scantrack markets have only as little as 5 households in the Homescan sample.
solution
Solution
  • I aggregated SAMI and Nielsen markets up to 8 super regions (California, West, E North Central, W. North Central, Mid South, Deep South, Northeast, and New York).
  • Minimum number of Nielsen households is now about 350 and the average is 700.
map color schemes
Map Color Schemes
  • I use the spectrum of colors for each map starting at least violet through indigo, blue, green, light green, yellow, orange, and red.
  • For example…
slide12
I then ranked cereals by ratings or nutrient content and identified the top (or bottom) 10 cereals.
  • I calculated an index of sales per household for these 10 cereals for SAMI and for Nielsen.
  • I then took the ratio (Nielsen/SAMI).
  • If the ratio is less (greater) than one for a region then sales per household declined (increased) between 1990 and 1999.
consumer reports
Consumer Reports
  • Rated cereals based on nutrition (October, 1986)
  • I used the information on DASL to get ratings.
  • Ratings are weighted averages of: protein, fat, fiber, sugar, and sodium.
summary1
Summary
  • Low Sodium cereals increased in the most regions.
  • Lowest Rated & High Sugar had the biggest differences in ratios.
  • Regions with the biggest changes are: California, West, East North Central, and Mid South.
conclusions
Conclusions
  • Nutrition doesn’t seem to be playing a big role in cereal consumption, probably because “bad” cereals are often healthier than the alternatives.
  • The difference between Low & High Sugar cereals is over stated because of added sugar.
  • Probably the biggest asset RTE cereal continues to enjoy is convenience.