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Recreation Economic Studies of Lake Mead & the Grand Canyon of the Colorado

Recreation Economic Studies of Lake Mead & the Grand Canyon of the Colorado. John Duffield Chris Neher David Patterson University of Montana Lake Mead Symposium March 5-6, 2012 Las Vegas, NV. Outline. Introduction NPS Objectives Phase II Findings and Data Gaps 2012-2013 Survey

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Recreation Economic Studies of Lake Mead & the Grand Canyon of the Colorado

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  1. Recreation Economic Studies of Lake Mead & the Grand Canyon of the Colorado John Duffield Chris Neher David Patterson University of Montana Lake Mead Symposium March 5-6, 2012 Las Vegas, NV

  2. Outline Introduction NPS Objectives Phase II Findings and Data Gaps 2012-2013 Survey Modeling Visitation and Water Levels

  3. Overall Project Objectives Develop Comprehensive values for NPS resources in the Colorado River Watershed (CRW) Estimate NPS values as a function of water allocations. Integrated economic-hydrologic tools for NPS to fully participate in CRW water policy.

  4. Linkages between CRW Recreation Resources and the Economy Ecosystem Services • Management • - Conservation • Use & enjoyment Visitor Use Nonuse Values Economic Impact Benefit- Cost

  5. Organization of Study Phase I. White paper. Phase II. Review & synthesis existing studies and data sets, identify data gaps. Phase III. Original research in two areas: direct use-regional economics, nonuse values. Phase IV. Integrate economics & hydrology, application to water allocation policies, user friendly model, publications.

  6. Types of NPS Resource Values • Market and nonmarket values • Direct use values - consumptive (hunting, fishing…) - nonconsumptive (boating, scenic..) • Nonuse values: existence & bequest • Two accounting frameworks: social benefit-cost, regional economics

  7. Summary of Existing Literature on Visitor Expenditures and Regional Economic Impacts

  8. Key Previous Research on Water-related CRW NPS Resources Glen Canyon Environmental Studies, began 1982 Bishop et al. 1987 – direct use in Grand Canyon river corridor Operation of Glen Canyon Dam EIS, began 1989 Welsh et al. 1995 – nonuse values in river corridor EIS 1995, Record of Decision 1996

  9. Estimates of Colorado River Unit Direct Recreational Values

  10. Bishop (1997) Relationship Between NEV and Flow Levels on Grand Canyon Float

  11. Visitor Survey-Based Colorado R. Unit Expenditure Data

  12. Is Sufficient Information Available Now to Conduct Economic Analysis?

  13. Planned Colorado River Survey

  14. Additional Analysis Using Existing Data

  15. Lake Mead Elevation: Interim Surplus Criteria Alternatives. (Source, Wheeler et al. 2002)

  16. Lake Powell Visitation-Water Volume Model: 1996-2006 • Dependent variable: Monthly visitation • Explanatory variables: Month indicator variables, average lake volume, interaction terms for summer and shoulder season months and volume • VOLUME 0.00104 t=2.50 • SHOULDER * VOLUME 0.00364 t=5.90 • SUMMER * VOLUME 0.00859 t=13.03 • R-Square 0.987 • N=132

  17. 55000000 23000000 21000000 50000000 19000000 17000000 45000000 15000000 Average Lake Powell Volume Wahweap Marina Receipts 13000000 40000000 Wahweap Lake Powell 11000000 9000000 35000000 7000000 30000000 5000000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Annual Data 1995-2005 Plot of Wahweap Marina Annual Receipts and Average Lake Powell Levels.

  18. Lake Mead Visitation-Volume Model: Monthly Data, 1996-2011

  19. Plot of Lake Mead Annual Visitation (Observed v. Predicted) and Lake Volume

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