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How Do You Know Whether to Believe the Model Forecast? Unmasking the Black Box

How Do You Know Whether to Believe the Model Forecast? Unmasking the Black Box Stephen Jascourt* UCAR/COMET at NWS Headquarters Bill Bua UCAR/COMET at NCEP Greg Byrd UCAR/COMET at UCAR *Stephen.Jascourt@noaa.gov. Example: Model runs from 00 UTC 8 Oct 2007.

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How Do You Know Whether to Believe the Model Forecast? Unmasking the Black Box

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  1. How Do You Know Whether to Believe the Model Forecast? Unmasking the Black Box Stephen Jascourt* UCAR/COMET at NWS Headquarters Bill Bua UCAR/COMET at NCEP Greg Byrd UCAR/COMET at UCAR *Stephen.Jascourt@noaa.gov

  2. Example: Model runs from 00 UTC 8 Oct 2007 Fire weather danger over northeast Nevada? How Do You Know Whether to Believe the Model Forecast? NAM 48-h forecast at Elko, NV SREF 48-h probability [no precip, RH<20%,wind>20MPH,T>60F] X Elko RH? Forecast T, mixing depth NOAA/NCEP

  3. Example: Model runs from 00 UTC 8 Oct 2007 Position, strength of lakes cut-off? Frost potential? How Do You Know Whether to Believe the Model Forecast? 2-m T oC 84 h valid 12Z Oct 11 GFS NOAA/NCEP GFS ensembles 72 h valid 00Z 11 Oct 500 hPa 558 dm NAM NOAA/NCEP NOAA/NCEP NOAA/NCEP

  4. UNMASKING THE BLACK BOX 8 years of NWP training Navigation, how to find it • MetEd site • Operational Models Matrix • Individual NWP models, ensembles, wave models • NWP Course (conceptual background) • Model-specific information • Forums • Ensemble module • Case examples – what happened, why • VISITview teletraining – integrates content, cases • COMET Webcast modules – integrates content, cases • Seasonal Powerpoints – summaries, cases

  5. NAVIGATIONMetEd home: www.meted.ucar.edu

  6. NAVIGATIONMetEd home: www.meted.ucar.edu

  7. NAVIGATIONOperational Models Matrix www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2/

  8. NAVIGATIONOperational Models Matrix www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2/

  9. NAVIGATIONOperational Models Matrix www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2/

  10. Navigation panel Content panel NWP COURSE

  11. Content is updated as models change! NAVIGATIONOperational Models Matrix www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2/

  12. MODEL-SPECIFIC CONTENT

  13. NAVIGATIONOperational Models Matrix www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2/

  14. NAVIGATIONOperational Models Matrix www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2/

  15. NAVIGATIONOperational Models Matrix www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2/

  16. NAVIGATIONOperational Models Matrix www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2/

  17. NAVIGATIONOperational Models Matrix www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2/

  18. NAVIGATIONOperational Models Matrix www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2/

  19. NAVIGATIONOperational Models Matrix www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2/

  20. NAVIGATIONDiscussion forums

  21. NAVIGATIONOperational Models Matrix www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2/

  22. Navigation panel Content panel MODULES Ensemble Forecasting Explained

  23. NAVIGATIONCases www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu3/cases/

  24. CASESHow Good Data Can Lead to a Poor Model Analysis Navigation panel Content panel

  25. CASESHow Good Data Can Lead to a Poor Model Analysis

  26. CASESHow Good Data Can Lead to a Poor Model Analysis Smooths out changes to first guess 5-10 oC cooler than first guess nearly same as first guess

  27. NAVIGATIONVISITview Teletraining http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/visit/topic_nwp.html

  28. Lake-effect heavy snow, why good forecast? VISIT SESSIONSNAM-WRF Update and Performance Discussion

  29. NAVIGATIONMetEd home: www.meted.ucar.edu

  30. WEBCASTS Using the WRF Mesoscale Model [AFWA] Lots of data shown, user challenged to explain, predict, and verify during the module

  31. WEBCASTS The NCEP NAM WRF Model

  32. Model change summary and forecast impacts WEBCASTS The NCEP NAM WRF Model

  33. Precipitation type algorithm change: affects diagnosed type WEBCASTS The NCEP NAM WRF Model

  34. WEBCASTS Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA)

  35. “Convective Weather Refresher” under “Convective Weather” topic on MetEd home page SEASONAL TRAINING Convective Parameterization

  36. SUMMARY 8 years of NWP training Navigation, how to find it Start: MetEd site www.meted.ucar.edu Register (free), log in Select NWP under TOPICS Operational Models Matrix (www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2/) • Individual NWP models, ensembles, wave models • NWP Course (conceptual background) • Model-specific information • Forums • Ensemble module Case examples (www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu3/cases/) COMET Webcast modules – integrates content, cases Seasonal Powerpoints – summaries, cases, content VISITview teletraining – integrates content, cases http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/visit/topic_nwp.html

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