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Modeling global river export: N, P, C, Si

Sybil P. Seitzinger International Geosphere-Biosphere Program (IGBP) Stockholm, Sweden. Modeling global river export: N, P, C, Si. E. Mayorga A.F. Bouwman C. Kroeze J.A. Harrison A.H.W. Beusen G. Billen G. Van Drecht E. Dumont B.M. Fekete C. Vorosmarty J. Garnier.

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Modeling global river export: N, P, C, Si

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  1. Sybil P. Seitzinger International Geosphere-Biosphere Program (IGBP) Stockholm, Sweden Modeling global river export: N, P, C, Si E. Mayorga A.F. Bouwman C. Kroeze J.A. Harrison A.H.W. Beusen G. Billen G. Van Drecht E. Dumont B.M. Fekete C. Vorosmarty J. Garnier

  2. Rivers transport nutrients (N, P, Si, C) from watersheds to coastal waters

  3. Rivers transport nutrients (N, P, Si, C) from watersheds to coastal waters Coastal effects Sellman et al. 2007

  4. Global NEWS Model NutrientExport from WaterSheds Nutrient Sources Hydrology & Physical Factors In-River N, P, Si, C Removal • Input databases 0.5o x 0.5o • >5000 watersheds globally • STN-30

  5. Global NEWS Model Nutrient Sources Hydrology & Physical Factors In-River N, P, Si, C Removal Natural N2-Fixation P Weathering Global Watersheds Water Runoff Precip. Intensity Land-use Slope Rivers & Reservoir Consumptive Water Use Anthropogenic Non-Point Fertilizer (by crop type) N2-fixation - crops Manure (by animal species) Atmos. Dep. N Point Sewage(pop.; treatment level) Nutrient Loading to Coastal Waters Seitzinger et al. 2005, Mayorga et al. 2010 Seitzinger et al. 2010

  6. NutrientExport from WaterSheds Global NEWS Model At river mouths, predict export of: Dissolved Particulate Inorganic Organic N DIN DON PN PDIP DOP PP C DIC* DOC POC SiDSi * DIC in prep. Seitzinger et al. 2005, Mayorga et al. 2010 Seitzinger et al. 2010

  7. Equation for DIN as example YldF = Feriv,F * [(RSpntF + Rsdifant,F) + Rsdifnat,F Rsdifant,DIN = Fews,DIN * WSdifant,N + Agfr * (fDIN(Rnat) * ECDIN), where: Fews,DIN = eDIN * fDIN(Rnat) WSdifant,N = WSdiffe,N + WSdifma,N + WSdiffix,ant,N = WSdifdep,ant,N – WSdifex,N]

  8. Outline Applications Spatial Time step Input Output Annual Global watersheds Yangtze watershed Sub-basins global DIP Sub-basins California Scenarios – global

  9. Outline Applications Spatial Time step Input Output Annual Global watersheds 0.5o x0.5o watershed ~2005 > 5000 watersheds Yangtze watershed Sub-basins global DIP Sub-basins California Scenarios – global

  10. Why annual average for global application?

  11. Global NEWS Model Nutrient Sources Hydrology & Physical Factors In-River N, P, Si, C Removal Natural N2-Fixation P Weathering Global Watersheds Water Runoff Precip. Intensity Land-use Slope Rivers & Reservoir Consumptive Water Use Anthropogenic Non-Point Fertilizer (by crop type) N2-fixation - crops Manure (by animal species) Atmos. Dep. N Point Sewage(pop.; treatment level) Nutrient Loading to Coastal Waters Seitzinger et al. 2005, Mayorga et al. 2010 Seitzinger et al. 2010

  12. Comparison of model predicted vs measured river transport R2=0.88 Susquehanna Ganges Ganges Rhine Modeled DOC yield (kg C km-2 yr-1) Gambia Modeled DIN export (kg N basin-1 yr-1) Dnepr Colorado Measured DOC yield (kg C km-2 yr-1) Measured DIN export (kg N basin-1 yr-1) Dumont et al. Harrison et al. Global Biogeochem Cycles 2005

  13. River transport of DIN to coastkg N/km2/yr>5000 watersheds Seitzinger et al. 2005 Global Biogeochemical Cycles

  14. Outline Applications Spatial Time step Input Output Annual Global watersheds 0.5o x0.5o watershed ~2005 Yangtze watershed province watershed yearly 30 yrs Sub-basins global DIP Sub-basins California Scenarios – global

  15. Yangtze river watershedannual 1970 – 2003 Province level N input data Total N input River DIN Export Fertilizer Manure Model Predicted Atmos. N deposition N2-fixation Measured Yan et al. 2010 GBC

  16. Outline Applications Spatial Time step Input Output Annual Global watersheds 0.5o x0.5o watershed ~2000 Yangtze watershed province watershed yearly 30 yrs Sub-basins global DIP 0.5o x0.5o 0.5o x0.5o ~2010 Sub-basins California Scenarios – global

  17. Hi resolution NEWS-DIP Sub-basin 0.5o x 0.5o Measured data Model vs Data Harrison et al. 2010 GBC

  18. NEWS-Predicted DIP Yield(kg P / km2 / yr) NEWS-DIP-2005 Basin NEWS-DIP-HD-2010 Sub-basin Harrison et al., GBC 2010

  19. Outline Applications Spatial Time step Input Output Annual Global watersheds 0.5o x0.5o watershed ~2005 Yangtze watershed province watershed yearly 30 yrs Sub-basins global DIP 0.5o x0.5o 0.5o x0.5o ~2010 Sub-basins California 1 km watershed ~2000 Scenarios – global

  20. DOC in Central Valley, CA watersheds Measured DOC Yield (kg C / km2 / yr) NEWS DOC Yield (kg C / km2 / yr) r2 validation = 0.80 n = 22 Basin delineations: USGS Runoff: USGS Potential Runoff: DWR Land Use: Fire and Resource Assessment Program (FRAP) Concentration: Dahlgren (1999-2004) Harrison et al. In prep. (Data courtesy of R. Dahlgren andUSGS)

  21. Outline Applications Spatial Time step Input Output Annual Global watersheds 0.5o x0.5o watershed ~2005 Yangtze watershed province watershed yearly 30 yrs Sub-basins global DIP 0.5o x0.5o 0.5o x0.5o ~2010 Sub-basins Californiavarious watershed ~2000 Scenarios – global 0.5o x0.5o watershed 2000-2030-2050

  22. Future scenarios Policy Options & Costs NutrientSources from Food and Energy Nutrient Export at River Mouth CoastalEffects (algaeblooms; anoxia; fisheries; etc.)

  23. Includes social, economic, policy, and ecological considerations Nutrient export trajectories 2000-2030 Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Scenarios /www.millenniumassessment.org

  24. Two scenarios Worst Case Global Orchestration Better Case Adapting Mosaic Envir. Approach reactiveproactive Income high medium Population Increase lowerhigher Fertilizer Use high moderate Nutrient Management not optimal efficient Meat Consumption high moderate Sewage Treatment access full constant % N removal high moderate Specifics vary by country Bouwman et al. 2010 & Van Drecht et al. 2009 GBC

  25. REFERENCE

  26. Two scenarios Worst Case Global Orchestration Better Case Adapting Mosaic Envir. Approach reactiveproactive Income high medium Population Increase lowerhigher Fertilizer Use high moderate Nutrient Management not optimal efficient Meat Consumption high moderate Sewage Treatment access full constant % N removal high moderate Specifics vary by country Bouwman et al. 2010 & Van Drecht et al. 2009 GBC

  27. Change DIN river export 2000-2030 Global Orchestration Adapting Mosaic Seitzinger et al. 2010 GBC Seitzinger et al. 2010 GBC

  28. Contribution to river DIN exportSouth Asia • Howwereimprovements • achieved? • Sewage connectivity constant % • Technological NOx controls • Lower meat consumption • Efficient management nitrogenin agriculture Seitzinger et al. 2010, GBC

  29. Summary Applications Spatial Time step Input Output Annual Global watersheds 0.5o x0.5o watershed ~2005 Yangtze watershed province watershed yearly 30 yrs Sub-basins global DIP 0.5o x0.5o 0.5o x0.5o ~2010 Sub-basins California 1 km watershed ~2000 Scenarios – global 0.5o x0.5o watershed 2000-2030-2050

  30. Acknowlegements and for more details Mayorga et al. 2010 Model development, Envir. Modelling & Software Global Biogeochemical Cycles 2010 - Special section Seitzinger et al. overview Bouwman et al. agriculture Van Drecht et al. urban wastewater Feteke et al. hydrology Harrison et al. hi resolution DIP Yan et al. Yangtze river

  31. Global NEWS Model NutrientExport from WaterSheds Nutrient Sources Hydrology & Physical Factors In-River N, P, Si Removal Input Databases 0.5o x 0.5o > 5000 watersheds globally

  32. DIN export change w/ 2030 climate Water runoff change Change DIN vs. 2000 GO 2030 2000 N Inputs w/ GO 2030 Climate DIN change - Climate only Mayorga, Seitzinger in prep.

  33. DIN export change Change vs. 2000 Global Orchestration GO 2030 2000 N Inputs w/ GO 2030 Climate Climate only Mayorga, Seitzinger in prep.

  34. Effect of climate change only on DIN river export?

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