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The summer 2003 anomaly as seen from the bottom up models

The summer 2003 anomaly as seen from the bottom up models. Mona Vetter, Galina Churkina, Martin Jung, Markus Reichstein, Martin Heimann,Sönke Zähle, Nicolas Viovy,Youmin Chen. How strong was the Summer anomaly 2003 compared with long term simulations of the bottom –up models?. Climate:

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The summer 2003 anomaly as seen from the bottom up models

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  1. The summer 2003 anomaly as seen from the bottom up models Mona Vetter, Galina Churkina, Martin Jung, Markus Reichstein, Martin Heimann,Sönke Zähle, Nicolas Viovy,Youmin Chen

  2. How strong was the Summer anomaly 2003 compared with long term simulations of the bottom –up models?

  3. Climate: Temperature Precipitation Humidity/ Vapor pressure deficit Radiation Albedo daylength Texture: Land cover Elevation Soil depth Environmental change: Increasing atmospheric CO2 N-deposition Equal model inputs:

  4. First estimates of NEP, GPP and Reco 1980-2003

  5. The spatial distribution of the summer 2003 anomaly Warm dry Cold wet

  6. NEP The growing season (Mai-September) anomaly of 2003 (Base 2000-2002) NEP LPJ MOD17+ BGC GPP MOD17+ LPJ BGC Respiration LPJ MOD17+ BGC

  7. The growing season (Mai-September) anomaly of 2002 (Base 2000-2002) NEP LPJ MOD17+ BGC GPP MOD17+ LPJ BGC Respiration LPJ MOD17+ BGC

  8. Drought and warm in the Western Europe 2003 LPJ and Mod17+ captured the heat wave 2003, in western Europe, BGC showed only a weak drop in the NEP over central France Cold and wet in the North-Eastern Europe, Norhtern Scandinavia, warm 2002 LPJ and BGC capture the cold-wet anomaly in the North east, MOD17+ did not show a drop in NEP here. Growing season 2002/2003 anomaly

  9. Area weighted deviation during the growing season of NEP, GPP and Re relative to summer average 1980-1999 (20 years) LPJ Regions of Europe: NEP gC/m2 1 4 3 2 LPJ 5 GPP gC/m2 Summer 2003: Strong reduction In GPP, less reduction in Re. Long term pattern: 5 distinct periods: Drop in summer GPP, region 2,3: 1964, 1967,1982-83,1990,2003 LPJ Re gC/m2

  10. Annual anomaly of NEP during the growing season (Mai-September) relative to the Temperature- and precipitation- anomalies (Mai-September) 1958-2003. Region 1 shows the opposite behavior of the NEP anomalies in dependence of temperature and precipitation deviations than the other regions.

  11. Summary • The anomaly of the growing season 2003 over western Europe could be traced by LPJ and MOD17+. • BGC and LPJ traced the cold wet anomaly in North East. • The models showed a more similar pattern for the 2002 growth-season anomaly than 2003. • The summer 2003 was an extreme event, but not a century drought A comment for discussion? • The anomalies calculated as x-xmean do not describe the „real“ anomaly effect. A 2 ° increase of the mean annual T in the north, is a much stronger event than a 2° increase in the south. The calculation of the may be like this? Anomaly = x-xmean/xmean

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